tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77852751551401183162024-03-13T19:46:24.658+00:00The COVID Courier blogApplying business, scientific and IT expertise to get back to normality by defeating COVID-19 disease, which is caused by the SARS-COV-2 coronavirus (SARS2).<br> <b><a href="http://bit.ly/cv19360degrees">Click here for more detailed objectives and the author's biography.</a></b> Not medical advice.CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.comBlogger238125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-85905907313524842832022-04-06T18:23:00.006+01:002022-05-13T12:14:26.404+01:00COVID-19: LFT 101 - THE EXPERIMENT CONTINUES<p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvCu_lYQw4VY4eor0pkHoKH7wxiQHDED5l_N0v4md7KAe-qgsaHWx2Y0B_P4U9Abj0BtPzuy0SmDiJORe1KvsoKHsS59efj24ilEyEGToN-VQ5Qrrt3a8La5juMphS_2aAXngK_XTicnq8g_47G-OY2WrzdyJ0iqRxnbjKIvk8xuZUoUa4HlUusZwIA/s2348/20220513_104602%20lft%20101.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2348" data-original-width="2199" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIvCu_lYQw4VY4eor0pkHoKH7wxiQHDED5l_N0v4md7KAe-qgsaHWx2Y0B_P4U9Abj0BtPzuy0SmDiJORe1KvsoKHsS59efj24ilEyEGToN-VQ5Qrrt3a8La5juMphS_2aAXngK_XTicnq8g_47G-OY2WrzdyJ0iqRxnbjKIvk8xuZUoUa4HlUusZwIA/w188-h200/20220513_104602%20lft%20101.jpg" width="188" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LFT 101 on 13 May 22<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment4" target="_blank"><b>Back in April</b></a> I recorded my 100th daily negative Lateral Flow Test result since catching Omicron variant BA.1 at Christmas. Indicating I have not been infected enough to be contagious. at any point since 28 December 2021. <p></p><p>How?</p><p>Well:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>I have had all three jabs, two Astra-Zeneca and the Pfizer booster</li><li>The Omicron infection</li></ul><p>Seemingly enough immunity to fight off any variant of Covid to which I have been exposed. The experiment had been successful.<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhQZZEqHencHu0pnBokPjB7nkjN2yVBf8xRhPTWFCcoR-86KUf_kA1xL4208BzNYk7J4bgo6B30UORjSPv-Z2qFdi0xtOQp5VEfCKCH9uRbd8di03ivsc8WWCwOcKMsVgnNqgyIqI1mv1dQLuRNK15Dv7z4DQgJkEhjyvNa9MWMiu3OEzkBwXusNmcQ/s1767/atik%20still%20from%20video.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="987" data-original-width="1767" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhQZZEqHencHu0pnBokPjB7nkjN2yVBf8xRhPTWFCcoR-86KUf_kA1xL4208BzNYk7J4bgo6B30UORjSPv-Z2qFdi0xtOQp5VEfCKCH9uRbd8di03ivsc8WWCwOcKMsVgnNqgyIqI1mv1dQLuRNK15Dv7z4DQgJkEhjyvNa9MWMiu3OEzkBwXusNmcQ/w200-h112/atik%20still%20from%20video.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Since then I've been out and about at plenty of potentially super-spreader events. Nightclubs, gigs, group rehearsals. But as free testing had ended, I've been waiting for a sign of symptoms before using any of the few tests I have held back.<p></p><p>Yesterday gave me a sore mouth, consistent with Omicron. This morning LFT 101. Negative. Hurrah! </p><p>Especially as I'm being relied upon to play in a concert this weekend, and I'm hoping to get out to Ibiza next Thursday.</p><p></p><p>Fingers crossed for more negative tests in the coming days!<br /></p><br /><p><br /></p><p> <br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-78220418088552444682022-03-31T21:31:00.004+01:002022-03-31T21:55:08.934+01:00COVID-19: LONG COVID SUFFERERS NOW OVER 1.5 MILLION IN UK<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4uhUotTREJKHcyOTwcOKvngSrmjQ2AtZpPCQNAuX9s-CkEdneOZ8MAny8on_pmv-qbAHjhAKlfXYQ3Am6xaG2AFnDbSeyv75VwixxHg-p9gMq4G6LUwKsvHf2LQ_26-SclVDoeSBE7TgrnBXOErT9hBrR80T2q8SzEcYLM15nPBR6B5kqxxK5dJTeeg/s254/jan22%20rise%20in%20long%20covid%20per%20ons.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="199" data-original-width="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4uhUotTREJKHcyOTwcOKvngSrmjQ2AtZpPCQNAuX9s-CkEdneOZ8MAny8on_pmv-qbAHjhAKlfXYQ3Am6xaG2AFnDbSeyv75VwixxHg-p9gMq4G6LUwKsvHf2LQ_26-SclVDoeSBE7TgrnBXOErT9hBrR80T2q8SzEcYLM15nPBR6B5kqxxK5dJTeeg/s16000/jan22%20rise%20in%20long%20covid%20per%20ons.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Long COVID cases rising per ONS<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>On 3 March, the<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/3march2022" target="_blank"><b> Office for National Statistics (ONS) published a report</b></a> suggesting that at 31 January 2022 "<i><b>An estimated 1.5 million people living in private households in the UK (2.4% of the population) were experiencing self-reported Long COVID.</b></i>" That's "<i><b>symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were not explained by something else</b></i>." <p></p><p>Whilst there are several caveats about these figures, whether they are under-stated or over-stated, that is a monstrous figure. Lives blighted, and employment often restricted. Employers and the economy seriously affected.<br /></p><p>That 1.5 million reflects infection from Delta or one of the earlier variants prevalent in 2020 and 2021. The onset of Omicron in December 2021 will begin to be reflected in the imminent report for February, given at least a 4-week delay due to the definition of Long COVID. Though the current wave of Omicron BA.2 won't affect figures until March and April that are reported a month after the end of each month. In other words we won't know much about the long COVID affects of the Omicron variants in the UK until early May or June.</p><p>The same goes for experience of Omicron in other countries, given waves of infection at similar times. <br /></p><p></p><p>In the meantime the <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o738/rr" target="_blank"><b>British Medical Journal published this article</b></a> on 18 March, suggesting:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"<b>...nothing is certain regarding Omicron and Long COVID, mainly because the variant roared on to the scene so suddenly in December that too little time has passed to detect a strong Omicron signal in the ongoing stream of Long COVID cases</b>"</li><li>"<i><b>...most cases appear to stem from infections that did not require hospitalization, and they are starting to see Omicron-related cases and have little reason to think the variant will differ from earlier versions of the virus in its ability to generate Long COVID.</b></i>"</li><li>Concluding "<i><b>Because there are so many people infected with Omicron, we expect those
cases, unfortunately, will lead to more cases of Long COVID with more
suffering and more economic costs.</b></i>"</li></ul><p>In other words, we might expect to see ONS reporting far higher numbers than 1.5 million in the next couple of months. Let's hope not, but looks likely.</p><p> </p><p><b>RAISING THE ISSUE IN PARLIAMENT</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIaYdTj8CW5r0ev5m8JNBRw8R5e1TgIqYsPkI5AHf3hikLrsfH9zgkMKuguH3Rq3P7zeSitAtJZDKNWR6kTBoJb-uYYdZ1ihDfJWhOj8MJuY9W21Zz-CiOMUrueteWI3wSZZsL2AokuDzhOpikEG_RcowkwJJMGcVJMgx_Yn7svhn933V04HFEOHiIkQ/s259/layla%20moran.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="259" data-original-width="194" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIaYdTj8CW5r0ev5m8JNBRw8R5e1TgIqYsPkI5AHf3hikLrsfH9zgkMKuguH3Rq3P7zeSitAtJZDKNWR6kTBoJb-uYYdZ1ihDfJWhOj8MJuY9W21Zz-CiOMUrueteWI3wSZZsL2AokuDzhOpikEG_RcowkwJJMGcVJMgx_Yn7svhn933V04HFEOHiIkQ/w150-h200/layla%20moran.jpg" width="150" /></a></div>Today Layla Moran, who is the MP who chairs the APPG for Coronavirus, started a debate in Westminster titled "<b>The impact of long COVID on the UK workforce</b>". The <a href="https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2022-03-31/debates/26A12690-C886-4A8F-AC0A-1247DF5D1BB3/LongCovidImpactOnTheWorkforce" target="_blank"><b>full transcript is available here</b></a> and <a href="http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Guide" target="_blank"><b>can also be watched here</b></a>. <p></p><p>The stories in the transcript are heart-breaking. </p><p>But it is also the affect on businesses and other organisations ability to function with a reduced workforce, and the adverse affect that has on the economy and our daily lives. Even when we ourselves are not affected by Long COVID, let alone those that are.<br /></p><p> </p><p><b>THESE HIGH NUMBERS OF LONG COVID SUFFERERS WEREN'T WITHOUT WARNING</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUQlL6Q2tzlhQKL9rZR-WX8dL_31H11QBZ0tMmqiVBnht0bwmsmaDJ4VWoSrWmXIZnHh_pOe-vQhSiW4UaL0SUonHAWkvXWDe7L4mDgLqI3TzSThOcG7dw6syOBYNeue95FWb8IPB2Z0WvdD0gt0f1hTQk8ABjtHKDM5h2FG_EG2uzGMrSF7w3RLvMpw/s141/20200520_121945%20crc%20small.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="141" data-original-width="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUQlL6Q2tzlhQKL9rZR-WX8dL_31H11QBZ0tMmqiVBnht0bwmsmaDJ4VWoSrWmXIZnHh_pOe-vQhSiW4UaL0SUonHAWkvXWDe7L4mDgLqI3TzSThOcG7dw6syOBYNeue95FWb8IPB2Z0WvdD0gt0f1hTQk8ABjtHKDM5h2FG_EG2uzGMrSF7w3RLvMpw/s16000/20200520_121945%20crc%20small.jpg" /></a></div>Here's some tweets I published earlier today in response to Layla's excellent interview on BBC Radio.<p></p><p>These tweets show that I and many others were encouraging the Government to do more to suppress infection numbers from as early as the summer of 2020. That it wasn't just about deaths and the pressure on hospitals, important as they are, but also the impact of Long COVID on individuals and society. We couldn't take the risk. Yet the Governments of the UK did.<br /></p><p>(1) <i><b>"<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Long Covid? My blog covered Long COVID repeatedly:
</span><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/fOy9NEGwCs" rel="noopener noreferrer" role="link" target="_blank"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-hiw28u r-qvk6io r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">https://</span>covidcourier.blogspot.com</a><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">
When identified that Covid-19 produces long life-changing debilitation, should have been a key factor in Government policy. Not just deaths."</span></b></i></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">(2) </span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">"<i><b>One and a half million already. To which will likely be added a proportion of this latest wave, who have not been ill long enough yet.
Diabolical consequences for individuals, the economy, and short-staffing.</b></i>"</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">(3) "</span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><i><b><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">My first blogpost focused on Long Covid was in August 2020, just 5 months after the first lockdown started:
</span><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/hbc6SYuXSl" rel="noopener noreferrer" role="link" target="_blank"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-hiw28u r-qvk6io r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">https://</span>bit.ly/longcv19</a></b></i><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><i><b>
The conclusion being "... infections. Preferably below 2 per day per hundred thousand</b></i>" per day.<br /></span></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">(4) "</span></span><i><b><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">That first blogpost focused on Long COVID affecting individuals. This was followed up in other posts, including last July after a set of ONS stats:
</span><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/rghd5dHSdL" rel="noopener noreferrer" role="link" target="_blank"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-hiw28u r-qvk6io r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">https://</span>bit.ly/cv19longcovido<span aria-hidden="true" class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-hiw28u r-qvk6io r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">ns</span></a></b></i><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><i><b>
"Does that mean removing ...mitigations ...?"
Now?</b></i>" Now in March 2022? What if Delta or further nasty variants make a comeback?<br /></span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">(5) "</span><i><b><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">There's also societal consequences. This blogpost in April 2021:
</span><a class="css-4rbku5 css-18t94o4 css-901oao css-16my406 r-1cvl2hr r-1loqt21 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0" dir="ltr" href="https://t.co/ZWu15zaL16" rel="noopener noreferrer" role="link" target="_blank"><span aria-hidden="true" class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-hiw28u r-qvk6io r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">http://</span>bit.ly/ons_longcovid</a></b></i><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><i><b>
"Not just the risk of death. As a nation, Long Covid has been an important reason to take action to reduce infection rates."</b></i>"</span></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Do you think the Governments of the UK countries did enough to reduce infection rates?<br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-79487920605253561692022-03-16T13:00:00.007+00:002022-03-25T16:41:38.332+00:00COVID-19: 1 IN 15 PEOPLE HAD COVID IN UK RECENTLY. WHAT'S GOING ON?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjFTIWj73VJY0Fi7SRi5z-kaUr4OKBxVlJr2oB0C_1A98DN837VygKAGtuGQPAUap07kwWkXcGYTcTR4AJpDakweLJQa_4m_y0D588LbfTOSmGxdaJwxCghZkzNPHnJ6mFZgha4Bw2MzoXOfGiCjMR93fcthTDtALkoeu_VIhtXSokAhWyY45N7lNoQ/s597/220319%20ons%20stats.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="597" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfjFTIWj73VJY0Fi7SRi5z-kaUr4OKBxVlJr2oB0C_1A98DN837VygKAGtuGQPAUap07kwWkXcGYTcTR4AJpDakweLJQa_4m_y0D588LbfTOSmGxdaJwxCghZkzNPHnJ6mFZgha4Bw2MzoXOfGiCjMR93fcthTDtALkoeu_VIhtXSokAhWyY45N7lNoQ/w200-h178/220319%20ons%20stats.png" width="200" /></a></div>The Office for National Statistics run a regular Covid Infection Survey across the UK. <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/25march2022" target="_blank"><b>Today's report, 25 March,</b></a> for the week ending 19 March suggests 1 in 15 people had Covid. That's over 4 million, up 30% on the week before and 54% up on the week before that. Rising in all four countries. Now mainly the highly transmissible Omicron BA.2 variant.<p></p>That is resulting in increased hospitalisations, plus widespread disruption in general life. <p>It is disruption that is just as much a worry. For example, I'm a member of a volunteer group, and the volunteer numbers are being decimated. with people going down with Covid or in contact with people who have it. As we have contact with people who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, volunteers have no choice but to keep away, with obvious consequences on the service we are able to provide.. Many employers are finding similar issues, with examples of whole shifts being struck down ill with Covid for an extended period. A pal who has been very careful, enough to escape Covid for two years, has just gone down with it.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjyGGu8QHLf80OAZnfboeXs9DMJM2asLGwVZPSJoGTeYpQ4ZdK_lWFpgMsPFSr5ViZ2Mb2_pqkBYN9thJAvoeAISJ-oKdD3492t65kN97iWcMsVFKw-3sowc85eVhYcBVWlTKs68cXNSWnZCnjL_sSeKBPrMyP1jtaynO_Jvome25sbqdovs27UF2yNQ/s925/220319%20ons%20covid%20by%20country.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="925" data-original-width="687" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjyGGu8QHLf80OAZnfboeXs9DMJM2asLGwVZPSJoGTeYpQ4ZdK_lWFpgMsPFSr5ViZ2Mb2_pqkBYN9thJAvoeAISJ-oKdD3492t65kN97iWcMsVFKw-3sowc85eVhYcBVWlTKs68cXNSWnZCnjL_sSeKBPrMyP1jtaynO_Jvome25sbqdovs27UF2yNQ/w477-h640/220319%20ons%20covid%20by%20country.jpg" width="477" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">On the right expands the most recent weeks <br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>So what's going on? Is it us or the virus?</p><p> </p><p><b>WHAT WE ARE DOING </b><br /></p><p></p><p>Focusing on England, all restrictions have been lifted. Supermarkets and public transport are recommending masks are still to be worn, and some people do. But many don't, and other legal restrictions have been completely lifted, such as checking before entry to care homes, nightclubs, and other events. </p><p>The whole attitude from Government is to treat Covid like influenza. For most people, 'flu normally means a couple of days in bed, and soon back to work,. The new Omicron BA.2 which is now dominant, is milder than Delta, but is keeping people ill and off work for 10 days or more. Much longer than the original Omicron. Likely to have greater adverse long term LongCovid consequences too. </p><p>Indeed the arrival of Omicron BA.2 is fuelling the rise in infections compared to Omicron BA.1 before it. <br /></p><p> <br /></p><p><b>IS IT SENSIBLE TO STOP FREE TESTING?</b></p><p>Free Lateral Flow Tests are being withdrawn after the end of March. But around here in East Oxford it's effectively happened now. You can't get a test kit delivered, and the pharmacies are out of stock for collections, with no expectation of further supplies.</p><p>That's fine if we can just get on with life. But we can't. For the sake of vulmerable people, and for groups not to be struck down, we need to be taking tests. Test packs need to continue to be provided free of charge.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>ARE THE VACCINATIONS STILL WORKING?</b></p><p>On the positive side, I have now gone 88 consecutive days with negative Lateral Flow Test results. That's as at 25 March - <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment4" target="_blank"><b>click here for update</b></a>. That is since having Omicron at Christmas, which would have been the milder BA.1 variant. </p><p>However there is evidence that:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The three main jabs (two jobs plus booster) were good for Delta and previous variants, for which the vaccinations were designed, but are of limited help for Omicron. Preventing serious disease, but doing littel to stop Omicron infections</li><li>Effectiveness of the jabs is reducing. Hence the new booster for the over 75s and others.<br /></li></ul><p>Whilst we can live more easily with Covid as a result of vaccination, we cannot rely on it completely. The high rates of Omicron are not acceptable.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>WHAT SHOULD WE DO?</b><br /></p><p>The big question!</p><p>My view throughout thsi pandemic is that we need to take action to reduce infection levels for several reasons:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Reduce deaths and serious disease, especially amongst clinically vulnerable people<br /></li><li>Reduce long term LongCovid consequences, which can result in people being unable to work or function normally </li><li>Avoid the disruption arising from a high proportion of workers being absent ill. Especially in the food supply chain and amongst teachers. </li><li>Avoid the disruption to education from pupils being absent from school ill<br /></li><li>Reduce strain on hospitals, GPs and other health professionals involved in initial and longer term care</li><li>Give clinically vulnerable people the confidence to go shopping, use public transport and do other daily activities <br /></li><li>Reduce risk of new 'variants of concern' emerging, and more quickly tackle them when they inevitably do arise<br /></li></ul><p>That means continuing to take the threat of Covid seriously. Keeping businesses open, including the places inherently more likely to have transmission such as nightclubs. But taking all reasonable precautions, which can include:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Compulsorily wear masks on public transport, in shops, and in other indoor public places. This protects others if you are unknowingly contagious, as well as protecting the wearer</li><li>Improve ventilation in schools and other public places</li><li>A general attitude of looking after each other</li></ul><p>None of these things are happening adequately. The Government is letting us all down with the wrong attitude, wrong advice to the public, and the absence of necessary regulations.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-41042839833883334172022-03-10T08:31:00.003+00:002022-03-10T14:05:35.618+00:00COVID-19: WHY IS IT TAKING LONGER TO RECOVER FROM OMICRON?<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhB9GJV1nvZhF56i6y4IzLVhI_AdBDgl_G6Y1BFHHZnhzVi0fjGTi6iEYYwxfS6pPFi6VbmPgs8BnbDwjgHVAL9ZU7QwbFO2nEl1CEVVW85HB_9cTi94s0hENyVWZQRD7WP7nKo2JD_IU7YwnwLAReSZo4YW2o8iT15Lspo3Wg8nXOmBCCeJwh7fgAVqA=s680" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="506" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhB9GJV1nvZhF56i6y4IzLVhI_AdBDgl_G6Y1BFHHZnhzVi0fjGTi6iEYYwxfS6pPFi6VbmPgs8BnbDwjgHVAL9ZU7QwbFO2nEl1CEVVW85HB_9cTi94s0hENyVWZQRD7WP7nKo2JD_IU7YwnwLAReSZo4YW2o8iT15Lspo3Wg8nXOmBCCeJwh7fgAVqA=w149-h200" width="149" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A positive LFT result<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>We've discussed the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19difference" target="_blank"><b>possibility of more troublesome variants of Covid cropping up</b></a>. We must be prepared for the worst.<p></p><p>This week my doctor pal told me "... we don't have a single ventilated omicron patient on ICU in my hospital right now.". Yet Covid cases are rising again, and people I know are still going down with it, despite being fully jabbed. <a href="https://twitter.com/almurray/status/1501673997553000450?s=20&t=ElwWMyGIvL1_EWOcv9tIDA" target="_blank"><b>The comedian Al Murray</b></a>, for example. Milder disease, but causing disruption to schedules and workplaces.</p><p>There's then the problem that people are taking longer to recover. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment4" target="_blank"><b>I had a negative LFT for Omicron at Christmas only two days </b></a>after showing positive. Now it's <a href="https://twitter.com/theAliceRoberts/status/1501886696400560129?s=20&t=ElwWMyGIvL1_EWOcv9tIDA" target="_blank"><b>typically 6-10 days, such as for Professor Alice Robert</b></a><b> </b>still positive<b> </b>on day 7.<br /></p><p></p><p><b>SO WHAT'S GOING ON? </b><br /></p><p>We know that <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19difference" target="_blank"><b>Omicron B.1 has morphed into B1.1 and B.2</b></a>. There is also the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19deltacron" target="_blank"><b>new 'DeltaCron' combination</b></a> of Delta with the more transmissible spike protein from Omicron, <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/deltacron-hybrid-variant-transmission-identified-uk-remain-low-1508114" target="_blank"><b>now confirmed as being in the UK</b></a>.</p><p>The Government dropped formal restrictions too early. The vulnerable still need to be protected, so formal isolation should continue, for example. Masks should still be worn in shops and other public places where the vulnerable need to be. </p><p><b>WHY THE LONGER RECOVERY? </b><br /></p><p>What exactly is causing this longer recovery? Which variant or variants? We need to know. </p><p>We also need to know that the country is prepared for a variant that is worse. Is it? Sadly that's a QTWTAIN.<br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-61441754188427575582022-03-09T15:47:00.006+00:002022-03-09T16:03:21.748+00:00COVID-19: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT "DELTACRON"?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzBmQ_hhSXt3iS80npJnV0524ZOOmmWEE8JsgjYSsDh2fbuQxVmqJCHdyxWnv0GBcJxu0Q9Xug81vBqIC3cv3S0B29lX7hAbkmAArWV8sMZ98mVOqTyTKfiLWIz5Ok05lGW-E-LFXpBDoKKRQUD-64BgHkeJ0E_KHm3NzwLbhpqY58xBlRgJX2L4hu3A=s165" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="165" data-original-width="117" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzBmQ_hhSXt3iS80npJnV0524ZOOmmWEE8JsgjYSsDh2fbuQxVmqJCHdyxWnv0GBcJxu0Q9Xug81vBqIC3cv3S0B29lX7hAbkmAArWV8sMZ98mVOqTyTKfiLWIz5Ok05lGW-E-LFXpBDoKKRQUD-64BgHkeJ0E_KHm3NzwLbhpqY58xBlRgJX2L4hu3A" width="117" /></a></div>There has been concern that a new variant of COVID could arise. Such as having the potency of the Delta lineage with the high transmissibility of Omicron.<p></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1501260671576539143" target="_blank"><b>Institut Pasteur has now provided the raw sequencing of the new 'Deltacron' variant</b></a>, showing:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Core backbone derived from Delta</li><li>Spike protein of Omicron, which is what makes Omicron so transmissible<br /></li></ul><p>Recombinant viruses like this can arise when someone is infected with two variants
at the same time, and the viruses then replicate
together.</p><p>On the face of it, this 'Deltacron' cross-variant could be a major problem. <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/deltacron-new-covid-hybrid-variant-confirmed-dont-need-concerned-1506717" target="_blank"><b>Fortunately it is believed to have originated in January</b></a>, without it spreading uncontrollably. So we can rest easy for now. But we must remain vigilant for this or some other worrying variant taking hold.</p><p>That's why it is worrying that the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19difference" target="_blank"><b>British Government has scaled back anti-Covid measures too hastily</b></a>.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p><span style="opacity: 0; position: absolute; user-select: auto; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1501260671576539143?s=20&t=STrmnSGF-NY84R_b54J7HA</span> <br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-70467308933515269262022-03-08T17:51:00.037+00:002022-04-06T12:58:49.443+01:00COVID-19: THE FREEDOM EXPERIMENT updated<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDOCh2eWbdCqtxWGQ5MevlTr_ZDx0wH_eQ3uEHiQWBb4GP9FguN9dD8HPd1ThWrjxNfQ5j-YzrDv7OZ64dibvTEFcMwBxR8tkefXBa0S7WF-Cv2d3HEpegvzZcMxU7Gt_OeD70vvQgaRHYuofy630B1l2jmDCnCOD3kRcvNGT5GMkyPnnoJWttREKX2w=s3028" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2390" data-original-width="3028" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDOCh2eWbdCqtxWGQ5MevlTr_ZDx0wH_eQ3uEHiQWBb4GP9FguN9dD8HPd1ThWrjxNfQ5j-YzrDv7OZ64dibvTEFcMwBxR8tkefXBa0S7WF-Cv2d3HEpegvzZcMxU7Gt_OeD70vvQgaRHYuofy630B1l2jmDCnCOD3kRcvNGT5GMkyPnnoJWttREKX2w=w200-h158" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Buzzcocks in Oxford<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>As previously reported, I succumbed to Omicron on Boxing Day. Despite being triple-jabbed. Two brands of Lateral Flow Tests showing positive, confirmed by a PCR.<br /><p></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19diference" target="_blank"><b>In this previous article</b></a>, we note that Omicron's spike protein is physically different from that of Delta and earlier variants, and infects cells through a simpler mechanism. As a result Omicron infects different cells, and produces different symptoms. Escaping immunity to those earlier variants. Really a different disease.</p><p><b>THE BIG QUESTION / THE BIG EXPERIMENT</b><br /></p><p></p><p>Can immunity to the various Covid variants be provided by the combination of triple vaccination and Omicron infection? Does that combination provide freedom - at least until a new nasty variant appears. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19deltacron" target="_blank"><b>Such as this 'Deltacron'</b></a>?</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlQO9jJ0NNNnBfTddPYWHSZKN2J6FFpehu95V8RjU1txpsG6kgXgKl7_p5JTrYl7dlI-AZGccnxUM8_0CP1jLb_ZYFazvO0g4pwOxPTRCc8fWBM4ee6Bi295ApFr4A5Toiy1Cp8iVV7PG7SO-fVkU6-1_lOekEp-OiyI209XlUBOj26WTNOUy6aISd1A=s3335" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3335" data-original-width="1745" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjlQO9jJ0NNNnBfTddPYWHSZKN2J6FFpehu95V8RjU1txpsG6kgXgKl7_p5JTrYl7dlI-AZGccnxUM8_0CP1jLb_ZYFazvO0g4pwOxPTRCc8fWBM4ee6Bi295ApFr4A5Toiy1Cp8iVV7PG7SO-fVkU6-1_lOekEp-OiyI209XlUBOj26WTNOUy6aISd1A=w104-h200" width="104" /></a></div>Let's experiment. The advantage of living in Oxford is plenty of low-cost but high quality musical opportunities. <p></p><p>Over the first 9 weeks of 2022, I've been to 36 music gigs and nightclubs, that would be regarded as 'super-spreader' events. Yes, 4 a week. Plus pubs and 11 ensemble rehearsals. </p><p>With so many people I know locally going down with Covid in recent weeks, there's been plenty of Covid about. Every opportunity to catch one variant or another.<br /></p><p> </p><p> </p><p><b>THE RESULTS ARE IN ! </b><br /></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTwT2V4rLfmob5GKHR33SBrykKoFCCEgufiorL9uhL1xo23chk4s1PcDsbF2r8wnkTphg_5lKb4AgoCpaYKRB3LOnVy9TEM24nV7sTpLj4WxArCluV_gC6Yi-4tnfrUPyNkhEu6mNWVrtEJCqKmIK4gaUz2L53KAJjjahMB91UQ0fpqIN8DNX7TSLzIg=s1102" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="1102" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgTwT2V4rLfmob5GKHR33SBrykKoFCCEgufiorL9uhL1xo23chk4s1PcDsbF2r8wnkTphg_5lKb4AgoCpaYKRB3LOnVy9TEM24nV7sTpLj4WxArCluV_gC6Yi-4tnfrUPyNkhEu6mNWVrtEJCqKmIK4gaUz2L53KAJjjahMB91UQ0fpqIN8DNX7TSLzIg=w200-h126" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Let's dance!<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>No control, and only a sample of one. But by doing a Lateral Flow Test every morning, the results are in:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Now 71 consecutive daily negative results since 28 December (4 + 31 + 28 +8) - see latest update below<br /></li><li>A day or two feeling lousy in February, as if fighting off infection. Though that could have been anything</li></ul><p>I'd call that result freedom. Wouldn't you? </p><p><br /></p><p><b>UPDATE 6 April 2022</b></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-agCKMKtDC2uTUdTxIoenRZ7oQL2K4okdSAHGqXiLoojZ86rBiHXmXip5keRggnQvVmRxec6R2z1yqYPPAaVTf2R_PP2-lFlp_IOXq7iAXXXANDFPSZFSILEbfsQXIEqofTJ_67oaM5dIoGYLdxzHuXAXz6RK4Kh3aq-eEuSLHeFdO93H0DGkW1ZlGA/s2459/20220406_084710%20lft100.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2459" data-original-width="2247" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-agCKMKtDC2uTUdTxIoenRZ7oQL2K4okdSAHGqXiLoojZ86rBiHXmXip5keRggnQvVmRxec6R2z1yqYPPAaVTf2R_PP2-lFlp_IOXq7iAXXXANDFPSZFSILEbfsQXIEqofTJ_67oaM5dIoGYLdxzHuXAXz6RK4Kh3aq-eEuSLHeFdO93H0DGkW1ZlGA/w183-h200/20220406_084710%20lft100.jpg" width="183" /></a></div>Make that 100 consecutive daily negative LFT results, 4+31+28+31+6. Even after
attending potentially super-spreader events nearly every day since New
Year. More than three full months of 'out out' living since New Years's Eve. Freedom!<p></p><p>But this <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/why-are-so-many-people-in-england-getting-reinfected-with-covid-omicron?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other" target="_blank"><b>article in the Guardian </b></a>warns "<i><b>We are at the start of the 90-day period for possible reinfection with BA.2 following a BA.1 infection</b></i>". BA.2 is the variant now most prevalent in the UK, with BA.1 being the variant around in late December when I was infected with it. </p><p>So how long before I go down with Omicron again? The experiment continues, though my supply of LFTs is limited. Test kits became unavailable for delivery or collection around here at least 10 days early, in mid March.<br /></p><p> </p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-30632846744505628542022-03-08T17:03:00.002+00:002022-03-09T07:08:32.736+00:00COVID-19: WHAT DO WE KNOW NOW ABOUT OMICRON?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh3NlncjtdN6jLU_ag_bcLBlb-GKKBk3mjnLduq0sVdYUHf58zrUHBto9t_Vj-hmZutpEWIWF9pd23u0_JMrRoUk7i9Eh-SD757yeyBkYt9JpctUeVlPaHRGgsI0KnAu4BDdqatHcR8EYprrpKZHmaaMQeRAVQXN-k1vtW8cy5W6JIBqGHLfMpMgZifbg=s649" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="586" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh3NlncjtdN6jLU_ag_bcLBlb-GKKBk3mjnLduq0sVdYUHf58zrUHBto9t_Vj-hmZutpEWIWF9pd23u0_JMrRoUk7i9Eh-SD757yeyBkYt9JpctUeVlPaHRGgsI0KnAu4BDdqatHcR8EYprrpKZHmaaMQeRAVQXN-k1vtW8cy5W6JIBqGHLfMpMgZifbg=w181-h200" width="181" /></a></div>In late December 2021 I published <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>a report from Glasgow University </b></a>suggesting that Omicron attacks cells through a different mechanism than that used by earlier variants. As a result different cells are more susceptible, and the symptoms are very different. I went as far as to suggest the disease should be called COVID-21 rather than the original COVID-19.<p></p><p>Since then I have been waiting for confirmation of the science, and acknowledgement that we are fighting two different diseases. Similar but different, like cousins. </p><p><b>THE LATEST RESEARCH</b><br /></p><p></p><p>Further work, including by Imperial College London, has <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/" target="_blank"><b>confirmed a simpler entry mechanism</b></a>:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Delta and earlier variants require both the ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors on cells to gain entry</li><li>Omicron only requires ACE2 <br /></li></ul><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEIXrOq8Y7snX3WLBVsYmcLuFe0zlXHRs1MwyFbVq991SP81mxnZ1rBIpwY8AK9-KiNi14NZkzQV6eDvXH2hUxXxfoO350UiSUxdGO8KjGd6JVObSiVRvSXiARdZ5lyqFk4ItEuZDJfZZKjEvT9KSYSYC7Fy63YcXFRHWaWzdVhxttcCGZGqm3VGJjVA=s649" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="586" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgEIXrOq8Y7snX3WLBVsYmcLuFe0zlXHRs1MwyFbVq991SP81mxnZ1rBIpwY8AK9-KiNi14NZkzQV6eDvXH2hUxXxfoO350UiSUxdGO8KjGd6JVObSiVRvSXiARdZ5lyqFk4ItEuZDJfZZKjEvT9KSYSYC7Fy63YcXFRHWaWzdVhxttcCGZGqm3VGJjVA=w578-h640" width="578" /></a></div> <p></p><p><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/omicrons-surprising-anatomy-explains-why-it-is-wildly-contagious/" target="_blank"><b>The article</b></a> provides further detail, and suggests that Omicron can evade immunity to the earlier variants. My own boosted triple-vaccination immunity certainly didn't stop me catching Omicron over Christmas.<br /></p><p></p><p>The original Omicron BA.1 has spawned troublesome sub-lineages such as BA.1.1 and BA.2. The latter is even more transmissible than the BA.1s, which in turn are far more transmissible than earlier variants. We know the spike protein of the Omicron variants is physically very different from the other variants of concern such as Alpha and Delta. A couple of weeks ago the <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/22-02-2022-statement-on-omicron-sublineage-ba.2" target="_blank"><b>World Health Organisation published an update on Omicron</b></a>, but still regards it as variants of the SARS-COV-2 virus, rather than say SARS-COV-3. No mention of a new disease name such as COVID-21.</p><p><b>WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US?</b> <br /></p><p>I think regarding Omicron as a variant of the same disease is missing a trick. From personal and public health perspectives, we should be regarding Omicron and the earlier variants as two different diseases. For example:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Omicron causing different and generally milder symptoms, with existing vaccination and natural immunity offering little protection from infection</li><li>Good immunity from future COVID infection effectively requires triple jabs plus a dose of Omicron itself (<a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment4" target="_blank"><b>see my own personal experiment</b></a>)</li><li>Uncertainty as to whether a dose of Omicron provides any protection against Delta and earlier variants.<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/28/covid-omicron-appears-to-protect-against-delta-could-displace-it-study.html" target="_blank"><b> Early indication are that it does, at least to some extent</b></a>. But it is too early to rely on protection being adequate, especially against any new variants<br /></li><li>Therefore public health policy based fundamentally on Omicron ignores the strong possibility of a resurgence of Delta and similar variants. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60471607" target="_blank"><b><b>Removing isolation rules and sc</b>aling back testing so harshly are mistakes</b></a><b>.</b> SAGE should continue to monitor developments<br /></li></ul><p></p><p><b>IN CONCLUSION</b> <br /></p><p>We should publicly acknowledge that there are two different coronavirus diseases, and live our lives individually and collectively with that understanding. My concern is that the more dangerous Delta, and future variants of it, is waiting to really bite us in the posterior! <br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-9499993954417354692022-02-08T08:36:00.011+00:002022-03-01T09:42:23.257+00:00COVID-19: THE FREEDOM EXPERIMENT [Updated 1 Mar 22]<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpJvMbwyJhQEmWaJtWzvNgtPMPT3OyzD4l_Yu-wJm_ekWuv2fu1ESf52_33D3_zySSpKeIi_PkD1_ARuxV8GikSswOQe80NS25q_SSuWsGaJky2TA4Dgcaz6uq9uhI0QspVFaAqB4dqqdgPs8hkisOgg2JQXRXfbaxPqbyGC-9RzAR5O2Jn9tsK9ojSA/s3883/lfts 26dec to 22jan to use.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1889" data-original-width="3883" height="98" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpJvMbwyJhQEmWaJtWzvNgtPMPT3OyzD4l_Yu-wJm_ekWuv2fu1ESf52_33D3_zySSpKeIi_PkD1_ARuxV8GikSswOQe80NS25q_SSuWsGaJky2TA4Dgcaz6uq9uhI0QspVFaAqB4dqqdgPs8hkisOgg2JQXRXfbaxPqbyGC-9RzAR5O2Jn9tsK9ojSA/w200-h98/lfts 26dec to 22jan to use.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LFTs to 22 January<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>How immune can you be? Is the Booster enough? Here is the experiment.<br /></p><p>On Boxing Day I tested positive for Covid using two brands of Lateral Flow Tests. Symptoms were mild and consistent with Omicron, such as a gravelly voice. The Booster not enough to stop catching it. <br /></p><p>On 28 December the test was negative, and daily morning tests since have all been negative. That's 43 consecutive days apparently not infectious. 4 + 31 + 8 [Update 1/3/22: 4+31+28+1 = 64 days]. A slight concern on Thursday 3 February, with a slight cough and feeling groggy. But an extra LFT that evening proved negative.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtb0iY8jd7BaojnqecVh1MOFZoam0-Xp8A-1nIvQNn3oUoWSGjqd6wQICYSvcbjCCeUCPQlCNxVI6zA_r3cmE1IdIGtPJoHJC8VYJllS2wT1EHSGsZ1p3tfIkWxHuwvP1-KeaWoTKxvCeCWhOA3Xp-jJ2YUMyymdLIKTVvCt9pA8u7SJRaH0menBsD9g/s3505/lfts 23jan - 31jan.jpg" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1182" data-original-width="3505" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtb0iY8jd7BaojnqecVh1MOFZoam0-Xp8A-1nIvQNn3oUoWSGjqd6wQICYSvcbjCCeUCPQlCNxVI6zA_r3cmE1IdIGtPJoHJC8VYJllS2wT1EHSGsZ1p3tfIkWxHuwvP1-KeaWoTKxvCeCWhOA3Xp-jJ2YUMyymdLIKTVvCt9pA8u7SJRaH0menBsD9g/w200-h68/lfts 23jan - 31jan.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LFTs to 31 January <br /></td></tr></tbody></table>Whilst a negative test isn't a guarantee of not being infected, it is a very good indication that not infectious.<p></p><p>How has [64] negative days been achieved? By keeping indoors away from other people? Quite the opposite.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF_V43in1UZTvi1M-BlI84tKiSMjIFS4Mu3YA00JSxp_o2ckRBu95MYkWkcP3-vNPVMGYMbl1cC_ISyA7Euighpe3hslQe2jAruec-VtBKJKsQ1R8lgx0M6mYC-Qfsou1XUVfLEWhhtVD-Xrd3suNXRWxZTCGUrZ-dlTz8R1dIy-w6fKUxQigKAvCr3Q/s3821/lfts 1feb - 8feb.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1242" data-original-width="3821" height="65" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF_V43in1UZTvi1M-BlI84tKiSMjIFS4Mu3YA00JSxp_o2ckRBu95MYkWkcP3-vNPVMGYMbl1cC_ISyA7Euighpe3hslQe2jAruec-VtBKJKsQ1R8lgx0M6mYC-Qfsou1XUVfLEWhhtVD-Xrd3suNXRWxZTCGUrZ-dlTz8R1dIy-w6fKUxQigKAvCr3Q/w200-h65/lfts 1feb - 8feb.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LFTs to 8 February<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>From New Years Eve to this last weekend, I have attended over 30 potentially super-spreader music events of at least 3 hours each. Every weekend evening plus often mid week. [Update: Lost count, frankly] Mixing closely with hundreds of other people, with no additional precautions. The result has been no Delta infection, no repeat of Omicron.<br /><p></p><p>There's no control, and a sample of only one. But this represents an experiment suggesting that Covid immunity is provided by a combination of:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Triple-vaxed against Delta and earlier variants (which didn't stop Omicron)<br /></li><li>Natural immunity from Omicron infection</li></ul><p>Dare I say freedom? <br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-66763902088479726372022-01-13T19:47:00.003+00:002022-01-14T08:57:29.125+00:00COVID-19: HOW MUCH HAS JAVID ACTUALLY REDUCED THE ISOLATION PERIOD? <p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFk_FazX5GkNcq8o442km3vS-AWISmLdYDwGC6ZcS-oeiXtY9_pKMa4U-KVSoTAySBIOo7tNE8eHJ4wcPWPGbern-pdLTjSHeaNdKxkZg5hg1kOQuETVl_siUMKNdQ0DHPn1G5mIedZ9Gn4sg8DZVBgObOZhG9rcHDLMxUdzXJZYu3QUg-mYCC5-n9Rg=s606" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="606" height="71" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhFk_FazX5GkNcq8o442km3vS-AWISmLdYDwGC6ZcS-oeiXtY9_pKMa4U-KVSoTAySBIOo7tNE8eHJ4wcPWPGbern-pdLTjSHeaNdKxkZg5hg1kOQuETVl_siUMKNdQ0DHPn1G5mIedZ9Gn4sg8DZVBgObOZhG9rcHDLMxUdzXJZYu3QUg-mYCC5-n9Rg=w200-h71" width="200" /></a></div>Today, 13 January 2022, Health Secretary <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/self-isolation-for-those-with-covid-19-can-end-after-five-full-days-following-two-negative-lfd-tests" target="_blank"><b>Sajid Javid announced a reduction of the self-isolation period nominally from 7 days to 5 days</b></a>. That is subject to two consecutive negative daily Lateral Flow Tests and not having a temperature A reduction of 2 days you might think. Really?<p></p><p>Part of my usual professional role is to examine the rules applicable to a situation and optimise the way an organisation can operate better within those rules. This requires understanding the rules in detail, and then thinking of how to take advantage. Much like Formula 1 teams leverage their regulations, but without pushing the limits quite as hard.</p><p><b>SO WHAT'S HAPPENED?</b><br /></p><p>Here we looked at the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><b>change from the 10 Days rules to the 7 Days rule</b></a>. just before Christmas The definitions changed, which effectively reduced the isolation period by 4 days rather than 3, being the combination of:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>3 days change from nominally 10 days to 7 days <br /></li><li>Being able to exit isolation on day 7 rather than waiting until day 8. The <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19testedpositive" target="_blank"><b>NHS website clearly said "on or after" Day 7)</b></a><br /></li></ul><p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/self-isolation-for-those-with-covid-19-can-end-after-five-full-days-following-two-negative-lfd-tests" target="_blank"><b>new 5 Days rules</b></a> change the definition, such that you have to wait until day 6. Only 1 day earlier than under the 7 Days rules. </p><p><b>OMICRON OR DELTA?</b></p><p>Delta symptoms are the now 'classic' ones listed on the NHS website, including a continuous cough, loss of teste/smell, and a high temperature.<br /></p><p>Omicron is effectively a 'cousin' of Delta, with <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><b>very different symptoms and faster infection</b></a>. The symptom I noticed the day before my first positive LFT was a crackly voice, which is Omicron not Delta. The day after the date I believe I was infected.</p><p>It takes longer to recover from Delta, and often requires the full 10 days in isolation. The shorter isolation period is primarily relevant for Omicron. The need for two consecutive negeative LFTs covers the possibility of Delta or another earlier variant.<br /></p><p></p><p><b>SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN OVERALL?</b><br /></p><p>Here's a summary of the three sets of rules: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIgQmtoElKuAtKXXbEkgDve1T6TF8yAwlGh6kwNGr2n_puZdLQvWkMf9h--NjV4hXVHHPvwOmAZNplkLlZ9sJI8E2t9Mm1vMzCqR-ft85mBOAZSutw84ukQB8OgA135Um3vF67jgZn41mCjf_vGlaBj2eYIiJNMNJvUvR2X8vn4cH5XYmd8sfUCMlZPQ=s606" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="606" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhIgQmtoElKuAtKXXbEkgDve1T6TF8yAwlGh6kwNGr2n_puZdLQvWkMf9h--NjV4hXVHHPvwOmAZNplkLlZ9sJI8E2t9Mm1vMzCqR-ft85mBOAZSutw84ukQB8OgA135Um3vF67jgZn41mCjf_vGlaBj2eYIiJNMNJvUvR2X8vn4cH5XYmd8sfUCMlZPQ=w640-h226" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Note that for the 10 Days rule, which applies if cannot produce two negative LFTs, the NHS says that isolation ends at 2359 hrs on day 10. Hence not being able to get out and about until early on day 11.<br /></p><p> The overall result is as follows:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Day5 rule is a misnomer. It's 5 full days, so effectively release from isolation is on Day 6<br /></li><li>Which is only one day earlier than under the 7 Days rules<br /></li></ul><p></p><p>Furthermore, if you don't appreciate that Omicron has different symptoms, you will potentially stay in isolation a day longer than you need to. That's the same under either the 5 Days or 7 Days rule sets.</p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19fivedays" target="_blank"><b>Here it is argued that it is safe to bring exit from isolation 2 days earlier</b></a> than under the 7 Days rules, subject to negative LFTs and low temperature. That would apply for those infected by Omicron. Delta will usually mean longer isolation.</p><p>Yet Javid has missed this trick, only making half the change that would have been feasible. Another day could have been cut from the isolation period, subject to LFT and temperature checks. Huh? <br /></p><p>The worry is that people get out into the community whilst still infectious. The issue is primarily a communication one:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>So far the Government has been very unclear as to when exactly people can leave isolation. This new rule would be better called the 6 Days rule. Too late?</li><li>People shouldn't think leaving isolation on Day 5 or 6 is automatic. It's 10 days unless the specific conditions are met.<br /></li></ul><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><br />CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-75252316038827793522022-01-11T12:29:00.020+00:002022-01-14T08:59:48.062+00:00COVID-19: 10 DAYS, 7 DAYS, OR 5 DAYS SELF-ISOLATION. WHAT'S WISE?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv_-caS9ji3RFB9OIanRdNa2KeAK8jjagmunihOMuhZjyzWamnZmf_dMoF2HjFIwFMz391Ds1ytJcZ7Ju1v2mc9Y9J7Ht2IaoPNA_1GWyD8Y-UqARmazVkBtFIEu9tSvRfe4OVhwZNsm9kgHTBfjdnLh-raYJhNjebBY9Ap_TuofeLV-mBrtLZ8PoGJw=s700" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="700" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv_-caS9ji3RFB9OIanRdNa2KeAK8jjagmunihOMuhZjyzWamnZmf_dMoF2HjFIwFMz391Ds1ytJcZ7Ju1v2mc9Y9J7Ht2IaoPNA_1GWyD8Y-UqARmazVkBtFIEu9tSvRfe4OVhwZNsm9kgHTBfjdnLh-raYJhNjebBY9Ap_TuofeLV-mBrtLZ8PoGJw=w200-h124" width="200" /></a></div><p>We have a problem. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>As forecast</b></a>, the high rate of COVID infection means a high proportion of the workforce is off ill, and otherwise having to self-isolate. That is adversely impacting many organisations, which are having to close or reduce services. NHS and trains, and potentially food supply. Getting people back to work is a critical objective.</p><p>Reducing the self-isolation period would help to get people back to work, if that is medically prudent.</p><p></p><p>In England, the self-isolation period has already been reduced to 7 days, provided certain conditions have been met. Now 5 days is being considered, as is happening in other countries such as the USA. </p><p>Is 5 days wise? Let's investigate.</p><p><b>THE OMICRON DIFFERENCE</b></p><p>We now know that Omicron infects cells through a <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>different mechanism to earlier variants</b></a>. That lets Omicron spread more quickly, both between people and within a person. Plus different symptoms. Generally more moderate disease, but potentially serious enough for some people to require hospital treatment, just like flu.<br /></p><p>We're effectively got a different disease, that <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19cv21" target="_blank"><b>I'm calling COVID-21</b></a>. The 'cousin' of COVID-19, with family similarities such as PCR and LFT tests for earlier variants also working for Omicron. </p><p>But differences that make dealing with it a different proposition. As Omicron has become the dominant variant, we need a self-isolation strategy that focuses on Omicron, but doesn't forget Delta and earlier variants. And also is well prepared for sons of Delta and Omicron, and indeed <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1480643270501933058?s=20" target="_blank"><b>any other new Variants of Concern.</b></a></p><p> <b>WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT DELTA INFECTION?</b></p><p>The speed with which early variants up to Delta spread within a person depends upon each individual. But is broadly like this, where:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>It takes around 3 days after infection to be LFT positive </li><li>It takes around 8 days to then become LFT negative, but could be infectious longer. Hence the original 10-day self-isolation period <br /></li></ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv_-caS9ji3RFB9OIanRdNa2KeAK8jjagmunihOMuhZjyzWamnZmf_dMoF2HjFIwFMz391Ds1ytJcZ7Ju1v2mc9Y9J7Ht2IaoPNA_1GWyD8Y-UqARmazVkBtFIEu9tSvRfe4OVhwZNsm9kgHTBfjdnLh-raYJhNjebBY9Ap_TuofeLV-mBrtLZ8PoGJw=s700" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="700" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgv_-caS9ji3RFB9OIanRdNa2KeAK8jjagmunihOMuhZjyzWamnZmf_dMoF2HjFIwFMz391Ds1ytJcZ7Ju1v2mc9Y9J7Ht2IaoPNA_1GWyD8Y-UqARmazVkBtFIEu9tSvRfe4OVhwZNsm9kgHTBfjdnLh-raYJhNjebBY9Ap_TuofeLV-mBrtLZ8PoGJw=w640-h398" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html" target="_blank"><b>American CDC</b></a> (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) confirms that of being infectious "<i><b>the
majority of transmission occurs early in the course of
illness, generally in the 1-2 days prior to onset of symptoms and the
2-3 days after</b></i>".</p><p><b>HOW IS OMICRON DIFFERENT?</b></p><p>My own experience, supported by experience of other people, suggests timescales are shortened with Omicron:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>LFT positive in <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19testedpositive" target="_blank"><b>only around 24 hours</b></a><br /></li><li>LFT negative <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19negative" target="_blank"><b>as early as on day 4</b></a><br /></li></ul><p></p><p><b>SO HOW CAN WE CATER FOR BOTH DELTA AND OMICRON?</b><br /></p><p>In shortening the self-isolation period from 10 days to 7 days, there are <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/how-long-to-self-isolate/" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/self-isolation-for-covid-19-cases-reduced-from-10-to-7-days-following-negative-lfd-tests" target="_blank"><b>two important conditions</b></a>:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Two consecutive negative LFTs on days 6 and 7, at least 24 hours apart</li><li>No symptoms such as a raised temperature</li></ul><p>Otherwise self-isolation should continue. That's appropriate for Delta, and in many cases the full 10 days would be required.</p><p>But do we really need 7 days for Omicron? Provided those two conditions are fulfilled, with negative LFTs moved to days 4 and 5, it appears 'safe' (low risk) for people to exit self-isolation on day 5. </p><p>With it being important for people to get back to work if they have recovered from Omicron, then a change to day 5 is an important improvement.</p><p><b>WHAT ARE THE MODELERS SAYING?</b> <br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgoxtUGkMUsevCZB2XRXTis0poSKldwKyWyrxNLnp8H_NhNnEX6zcCBe5DHYt3_Qmpx_W825Dn9N8e9gqiOJMDIuKBpjAkmZvG5P61I7Mzyg8ysSOwoGX_prO9wBdTRomcxbKK3uVaoMuJr9fIAHKwr-qOTTSfQxz3rLDnrl9SYWS31YvYcD5xTLHgUg=s256" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="256" data-original-width="170" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgoxtUGkMUsevCZB2XRXTis0poSKldwKyWyrxNLnp8H_NhNnEX6zcCBe5DHYt3_Qmpx_W825Dn9N8e9gqiOJMDIuKBpjAkmZvG5P61I7Mzyg8ysSOwoGX_prO9wBdTRomcxbKK3uVaoMuJr9fIAHKwr-qOTTSfQxz3rLDnrl9SYWS31YvYcD5xTLHgUg=w133-h200" width="133" /></a></div>Professor John Edmunds, a member of Sage and an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has just released experimental modeling results. <p></p><p>As expected, this has confirmed that a 'test to release' scheme <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/leading-sage-member-and-new-research-backs-boris-johnsons-case-for-5-day-covid-isolation-rule-1395261?ito=social_itw_theipaper&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1641923209" target="_blank"><b>at 5 days produces no difference in the number of infectious days in the community from covid-positive cases</b></a> than at 7 days. </p><p>Provided each person has negative LFTs in the last two days.<br /></p><p></p><p><b> </b></p><p><b> </b></p><p><b>WHAT ABOUT THE APPROACH IN USA?</b></p><p>The<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1227-isolation-quarantine-guidance.html" target="_blank"><b> 5-day rules are somewhat different</b></a>:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"<i><b>Isolate for 5 days and if [you] are asymptomatic or [your] symptoms are
resolving (without fever for 24 hours)"</b></i> - but otherwise continue self-isolating<br /></li><li><i><b>"Follow that by 5 days of wearing
a mask when around others to minimize the risk of infecting people they
encounter."</b></i> </li></ul><p>The requirement to wear a mask stops after 10 days.</p><p>The CDC has also adjusted the need for contacts to self-isolate, reflecting that masks are primarily to provide protection to other people, not so much the wearer:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>"<i><b>Individuals
who have received their booster shot do not need to quarantine
following an exposure, but should wear a mask for 10 days after the
exposure. For all those exposed, best practice would also include a
test for SARS-CoV-2 at day 5 after exposure. If symptoms occur,
individuals should immediately quarantine until a negative test confirms
symptoms are not attributable to COVID-19</b></i>"</li><li>"<i><b>For people who are unvaccinated or are more than six months out from
their second mRNA dose (or more than 2 months after the J&J vaccine)
and not yet boosted, CDC now recommends quarantine for 5 days followed
by strict mask use for an additional 5 days. Alternatively, if a 5-day
quarantine is not feasible, it is imperative that an exposed person wear a well-fitting mask at all times when around others for 10 days after exposure."</b></i></li></ul><p> The UK approach is somewhat better:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Adding the need for negative LFTs on two consecutive days</li><li>An ongoing need to wear masks, in case get re-infected, and to reduce risk of being re-infected. Bear in mind that Omicron can be caught by people who have immunity to Delta and earlier variants</li></ul><p><b>IN CONCLUSION</b></p><p>We need an approach to ending self-isolation as early as possible that caters for all types of variants, especially Delta and Omicron:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>To let people get back to work, be they employed, self-employed on or zero hours contracts</li><li>To let parents and carers get back to what they need to do</li><li> To reduce the strain on organisations struggling to stay open and provide a near-normal service. That is especially relevant to the NHS and the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19danger" target="_blank"><b>food supply chain</b></a><b> </b><br /></li></ul><p>With Omicron being the dominant variant now, with infection timescales shorter than Delta, it seems both reasonable and advantageous to reduce self-isolation to 5 days. Provided the LFT and other conditions are met, which will cater for Delta and other variants.</p><p>The challenge is to ensure people are aware of the conditions, and not think 5 days is automatic.</p><p>Then to reduce risk of re-infection and passing it on, it's best to continue with basic precautions such as mask wearing beyond ending isolation, and indeed past ten days.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>UPDATE 13 JANUARY 2022</b>: Sajid Javid has now announced a reduction to 5 days. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19day5" target="_blank"><b>But is it?</b></a><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-62696462578857021242022-01-05T10:39:00.037+00:002022-02-08T08:20:19.793+00:00COVID-19: FREEDOM? THE EXPERIMENT CONTINUES<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh54_C2BJyOZoridvWGLE6V2okQl3oY_dxsA06X99QFmH56cF2pdh3YUW6N0tGJIL5u41ePS7LJAEiZJ3qgC3PzqdrFUZIeNmZM1TZK2McPSVUaoj9nyd80iruvjtiKJ8o2wQvvSgiuXXcfzPUbf2ygbWD4zIAV3bGHYmzWYh1wHS4YAx-EB8pTR6CGNQ=s3570" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3570" data-original-width="3000" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh54_C2BJyOZoridvWGLE6V2okQl3oY_dxsA06X99QFmH56cF2pdh3YUW6N0tGJIL5u41ePS7LJAEiZJ3qgC3PzqdrFUZIeNmZM1TZK2McPSVUaoj9nyd80iruvjtiKJ8o2wQvvSgiuXXcfzPUbf2ygbWD4zIAV3bGHYmzWYh1wHS4YAx-EB8pTR6CGNQ=w168-h200" width="168" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Another negative, day 5<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>Having had Omicron over the Christmas period, being fully boosted, and not being clinically vulnerable, <a href="https://bit.ly/3zeLY40" target="_blank"><b>it looks like I have</b></a>:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Little chance of re-infection by Omicron (see footnote update)<br /></li><li>High immunity to Delta and earlier variants</li><li>Little chance of serious infection should any of these variants be caught<br /></li></ul><p>The objective of this blog, as quoted in the header above, is "<span><i><b>Applying business, scientific and IT expertise to get back to normality by defeating COVID-19 disease.</b></i>"</span></p><p>Subject to a future variant appearing which is serious and evades vaccination, this is the best immunity since the pandemic began. Does that mean such normality has been achieved? Freedom?</p><p><b>FREEDOM?</b> <br /></p><p></p><p>For me, I'd say yes. Freedom, at least whilst immunity lasts. The residual risk feels similar to the risk of crossing the road, or cycling, say. That residual risk is being tested, as explained below.<br /></p><p>How about for younger adults, who have not yet had chance to be fully-vaced and boosted? Risks somewhat higher, but the chances of serious disease low. Almost as much freedom.</p><p>Would I go to a crowded nightclub, as an example of a hi-risk environment? Yes. Done it already, multiple times, as below. What about those not fully vaxed? They need to assess the risk personally according to the number of jabs they have had, level of clinical vulnerability, and attitude to risk. </p><p>Nightclubs and venues for similar events have been ensuring their premises are as safe as possible, to encourage patrons to attend. My experience is that there's been clear thought about ventilation, and it has been improved.</p><p><b>EXPERIMENT UPDATE</b></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment" target="_blank"><b>As noted here</b></a>, there was the opportunity at New Year to test my immunity: <br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>To get out to a major crowded event for New Year's Eve (NYE)<br /></li><li>To throw an 8-hour all-nighter in a crowded sweaty night club the night after</li></ul><p>Two potentially super-spreader events. Indeed I've heard of multiple infections at the NYE event. No news yet from the other event.</p><p>I'm pleased to report another negative Lateral Flow Test, which I need before my daily voluntary work. 'Freedom' will continue.</p><p><b>ONGOING PRECAUTIONS</b></p><p>That doesn't mean ignoring sensible precautions. Just like looking before crossing the road.</p><p>Masks, meeting outdoors, well-ventilated indoor spaces, and other basics worth continuing, even if no longer legally required. For your own protection, and to protect others if you do perchance get infected.</p><p>Kissing? That aunt who insists on it? Why not? Though the choice is yours.</p><p></p><p> </p><p><b></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBgLDyADdC-iN28NBI-t0nknPySMMnSk354ZVRSA7bxcMSejBedjKAIqln4s5ksWHdP0oAYuCyaK-hOSYWNTqz7GYOCaBiS7Mt1qF8n-7EAHSVP8mq0Ry5ku9pw8A2qoR1_vwsMQBM22WXZDJ9RQfUhprP3LDC-WOlvj7d6GOrT1w08iCj7U8whNZXhg=s3835" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1782" data-original-width="3835" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiBgLDyADdC-iN28NBI-t0nknPySMMnSk354ZVRSA7bxcMSejBedjKAIqln4s5ksWHdP0oAYuCyaK-hOSYWNTqz7GYOCaBiS7Mt1qF8n-7EAHSVP8mq0Ry5ku9pw8A2qoR1_vwsMQBM22WXZDJ9RQfUhprP3LDC-WOlvj7d6GOrT1w08iCj7U8whNZXhg=s320" width="320" /></a></b></div><b>UPDATE DAYS 6 & 7 <br /></b><p></p><p></p>Both day 6 and day 7 LFTs negative again, thankfully. <p></p><p>The experiment continues. Going in hard this coming weekend!</p><p><b>UPDATE DAYS 8, 9, 10 and 11</b><br /></p><p>Day 7: First night done out clubbing, and enjoyed. </p><p>Day 8 LFT again negative, though tomorrow's will be more telling. </p><p></p><p>Day 9 negative.</p><p></p><p>Second night done out clubbing. Oh yes! Day 10 will be key. <br /></p><p>Day 10 negative!</p><p>Day 11 negative. Experiment working, so far at least. Haven't caught any COVID variant, despite attending four potentially super-spreader events in the last 2 weeks.</p><p>Day 12 negative. We know positive results<a href="https://bit.ly/cv19fivedays" target="_blank"><b> tend to occur within three days of infection</b></a>, Looks virtually certain that neither Omicron nor Delta has been acquired from any of the four potentially super-spreader events attended in the last fortnight. </p><p>Day 14 negative. <br /></p><p>Experiment successful. Immunity gained aginst Omicron and Delta by a combination of booster and having had Omicron.</p><p><b>FURTHER UPDATE</b></p><p>We're now into the third weekend. Last night was the fifth potentially super-spreader event.</p><p>Day 15 negative.</p><p>Last night was the sixth such event.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrFcSZ7Yfh__yiw4d63Bhlkh5UvGN_NC4bZs99wAwP3GbY7INVUl_u2iMM_WiDlNo-1k0pT2jHY5qqM2xF4TLVugwJkQDZlr_ZIRujG5RZN6-UKRpM3N-wwjBjtyPWfYMvOT69jcQSp4xcoN9JJ6IA9qZeFLAKdvzukhsZF4BIH6gf8KT36L-VZsEm4A=s3649" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2247" data-original-width="3649" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrFcSZ7Yfh__yiw4d63Bhlkh5UvGN_NC4bZs99wAwP3GbY7INVUl_u2iMM_WiDlNo-1k0pT2jHY5qqM2xF4TLVugwJkQDZlr_ZIRujG5RZN6-UKRpM3N-wwjBjtyPWfYMvOT69jcQSp4xcoN9JJ6IA9qZeFLAKdvzukhsZF4BIH6gf8KT36L-VZsEm4A=w320-h197" width="320" /></a></div>Day 16 negative.<p></p><p>Day 17 negative </p><p>Day 18 negative.</p><p>Day 19 negative</p><p>Another 2 hours at a potentially super-spreader event last night. The 7th. The experiment continues.</p><p>Day 20 negative. <b> </b></p><p>A heavy weekend planned. Three hot sweaty super-spreader events done. Now 10 so far this year..</p><p>Day 21 negative<b> </b></p><p>Day 22 negative</p><p>Day 23 negative, even with a little blood. But that's another story </p><p>5 more hot sweaty potentially super-spreader events done. Total of 15 so far in January since being back from Omicron infection on New Years Eve.<br /></p><p>Day 24-33 negative</p><p>Days 34-36 negative, despite possibly fighting off second Omicron infection <br /></p><p></p><p></p><p>If I die, I'll die happy. Which reminds me. Must get that Mini prepped for the RallyCross racing series. <br /></p><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>UPDATE ON RE-INFECTION BY OMICRON</b></p><p>There is now <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/omicron-reinfection-possible-experts-want-172900558.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADNL_f000qHtr-saXTRvCMWRGV_h4jwJjbQfYPIz8RHKEmUCo1XgMson-1pQee4lJl13XgJYaMMu1vQDEsPrqel_nvncHjt0H7FWrkHJEvr3i1lDU89rQSrvJGpmL4_tcXK78OwcYHlvJqLmVtYdcboX--aVCITTHKlpAdQhbEDs" target="_blank"><b>evidence of people who have had Omicron being re-infected by it</b></a>. Does that matter?</p><p>In terms of illness, it is unlikely to be more serious than the first infection. The issue is a practical one. A positive LFT means self-isolating for at least five full days, to avoid passing it to others. </p><p>Frankly that's a risk I'm prepared to take to get back to normal life.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-3865208536535711562022-01-04T21:51:00.006+00:002022-01-05T07:32:04.538+00:00COVID-19: A REACTION TO DOWNING STREET PRESS BRIEFING 4JAN22<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjf9uVT4yX8tIV1vpjUqB6iEe3XNTqqfpPDv2_SB2sZ3TiW5y-L5FHSYHUA4JIvxokknBVt3B5WcmDdu8nFM9-LJ1vZxor6WN2NF9oK5Bn2gtXxuB7M65AXDhjPEA7-N7iGG6gStXPQkdVe5f4JQ44aXPtkhUkz5v_RZUq05ThjTlQzvw6OLIlOG-6t3g=s419" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="419" data-original-width="385" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjf9uVT4yX8tIV1vpjUqB6iEe3XNTqqfpPDv2_SB2sZ3TiW5y-L5FHSYHUA4JIvxokknBVt3B5WcmDdu8nFM9-LJ1vZxor6WN2NF9oK5Bn2gtXxuB7M65AXDhjPEA7-N7iGG6gStXPQkdVe5f4JQ44aXPtkhUkz5v_RZUq05ThjTlQzvw6OLIlOG-6t3g=w184-h200" width="184" /></a></div>This afternoon PM Johnson held a press conference, flanked by his most senior scientific advisors, Professor Sir Chris Whitty and Sit Patrick Vallance.<p></p><p>It was confirmed that Plan B would continue, and no further disease mitigations (restrictions) were anticipated. Though this is kept under review.</p><p>The emphasis of the Government's strategy is to ask everyone to get boosted, or get their first jabs if not done already. This is a good idea. From a personal perspective:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Booster probably reduced the impact of <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19summary" target="_blank"><b>my recent Omicron infection</b></a><b>. </b>A negative LFT just 4 days after infection<b>, </b>unlikely to still be infectious<b><br /></b></li><li>Conversely a friend hadn't had her booster, and has just been badly ill for two weeks with Delta symptoms<br /></li></ul><p>The presentations and answers were much as anticipated. But one matter to highlight. Sir Patrick said that in London, for example, this has so far been an illness primarily amongst younger people. "<i><b><a href="https://news.sky.com/video/covid-omicron-not-as-severe-as-previous-waves-but-high-infection-rates-will-put-pressure-on-nhs-says-vallance-12509146" target="_blank">As it moves up the age range, you'd expect to see more hospitalisations</a>. Don't know for sure how that is going to manifest, and what degree of disease</b></i>."</p><p></p><p>In other words hospitalisations and use of ICUs to date is not representative of the whole population, and would be expected to get worse. When it will peak for the older age groups, and at what level, cannot yet be predicted any more accurately than it being in the next few weeks.</p><p><b>POST-PRESSER COMMENTS</b></p><p>Two key points emerged in BBC's coverage afterwards:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-1awozwy r-18u37iz r-dnmrzs"><div class="css-901oao r-1awozwy r-18jsvk2 r-6koalj r-37j5jr r-adyw6z r-1vr29t4 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-1udh08x r-qvutc0" dir="auto"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Ione Wells</span></span> spoke about the adverse impact that Omicron is having on staff shortages. That the Government officers are worrying not just about the NHS, but also the risk for the "food supply chain" amongst other essential services. <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-100-000-critical-workers-to-take-daily-tests-in-bid-to-ease-omicron-shortages-12509044" target="_blank"><b>Indeed 100,000 workers in England, "from food processing to transport to Border
Force", will have to test every day they are working from 10 January.</b></a> </div><div class="css-901oao r-1awozwy r-18jsvk2 r-6koalj r-37j5jr r-adyw6z r-1vr29t4 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-1udh08x r-qvutc0" dir="auto"> </div><div class="css-901oao r-1awozwy r-18jsvk2 r-6koalj r-37j5jr r-adyw6z r-1vr29t4 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-1udh08x r-qvutc0" dir="auto">The first I've heard or seen mention of <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19danger" target="_blank"><b>food supply risks, despite highlighting them two weeks ago</b></a><b>. </b>Why has nobody else in the media seen this coming?</div><div class="css-901oao r-1awozwy r-18jsvk2 r-6koalj r-37j5jr r-adyw6z r-1vr29t4 r-135wba7 r-bcqeeo r-1udh08x r-qvutc0" dir="auto"> </div></div></li><li>Nick Triggle pointed out that the official forecast modelling by Warwick University concluded this:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgmYOs8fns_f34k3AAYOPjxJ_Eh20H4P0D6is5Z75NdnUCv-cCfei4sVtPENgOid7XT0tb6uesFQsBLeo-8AY-Y8q4sbRpQCPEuZaKd2Glqk_WH05NvCyFWwDaE7WJamyuDWXDgVhn-PXF3q-wzaTZs-FRtX9paJtAZq4WO6qSOYnjwivsNdp-mfb29w=s553" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="79" data-original-width="553" height="92" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjgmYOs8fns_f34k3AAYOPjxJ_Eh20H4P0D6is5Z75NdnUCv-cCfei4sVtPENgOid7XT0tb6uesFQsBLeo-8AY-Y8q4sbRpQCPEuZaKd2Glqk_WH05NvCyFWwDaE7WJamyuDWXDgVhn-PXF3q-wzaTZs-FRtX9paJtAZq4WO6qSOYnjwivsNdp-mfb29w=w640-h92" width="640" /></a></div>In other words the levels of infection are effectively baked in. If essential services begin to get closed down, or hospitals get overrun, it is effectively too late to do anything about it.<br /></li></ul>This 'too little, too late' government is again too late. Taking risks that nobody sensible would contemplate. 'Hope for the best, prepare for the worst' is not a concept this Government understands. Let's hope it is not that bad. But sadly, experience with Covid says outcomes are always at the worse end of expectations.<br /><div><p><br /></p><br /></div>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-8032178178447533092022-01-04T10:07:00.005+00:002022-01-04T16:40:53.261+00:00COVID-19: ALL THE POSTS SINCE TESTING POSITIVE<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2-rTvA7boPQSiAEcnqt_FeJq-fL5tV70SIDR5ahOnZPst5KVb0nvUOhrCu100i2xhEUg5FuEBMNwcK6ch68PxqUTX_Lrh7CijJxLE9-avRqs6qMIyg0dPPBAHmPqYviyDJa9QjsVARSwPVORxCxUZbLWW3-do3SvK2ENMNMx3MWtYkTNzL8dXWrCbAQ=s186" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="167" data-original-width="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi2-rTvA7boPQSiAEcnqt_FeJq-fL5tV70SIDR5ahOnZPst5KVb0nvUOhrCu100i2xhEUg5FuEBMNwcK6ch68PxqUTX_Lrh7CijJxLE9-avRqs6qMIyg0dPPBAHmPqYviyDJa9QjsVARSwPVORxCxUZbLWW3-do3SvK2ENMNMx3MWtYkTNzL8dXWrCbAQ=s16000" /></a></div>On Boxing Day I tested positive for COVID-19, likely infected Christmas Eve. Here is the story to date in a thread of blogposts, including the New Year 'freedom' experiment. Plus a bonus of why and how Omicron is different: <br /><p></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19testedpositive" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: SHIT'S JUST GOT REAL</b></a><br />Boxing Day. So you've tested positive. Now what?<br /><br /><b><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19positivepcr" target="_blank">COVID-19: THE POSITIVE PCR TEST</a> (Updated for COVID-19 app)</b><br />The consequences. Action now.<br />"As a former Computer Audit Manager for a Big4, the clowns who are responsible for developing and maintaining the app would not want to see my review!"<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19catchit" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: HOW TO CATCH IT (AND HOW TO AVOID IT)</b></a><br />Ventilate!<br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><br /></a><b><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank">COVID-19: OMICRON OR DELTA?</a> (</b>Updated for new Omicron symptom. which was my first<b>)</b><br />Important to know<br />For me "99%+ chance it's Omicron"<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19negative" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: ALREADY NEGATIVE</b></a><br />No longer infectious?<br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19cv21" target="_blank"><br /><b>COVID-19: OR IS IT NOW COVID-21 ? </b></a><br />What we know about Omicron. The uncertainties. How should the UK Government respond?<br /><br />Surely there's a flaw in this logic? My most contentious blogpost yet...<br /><b><a href="https://bit.ly/3zeLY40" target="_blank">COVID-19: SO YOU’VE HAD OMICRON, WHAT NOW?</a> </b>(Plus notes if you haven't had it)<br />Living life freely? Continuing with precautions?<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: WHY OMICRON BEHAVES DIFFERENTLY</b></a><br />New research. Different disease<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: THE EXPERIMENT. SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO.</b></a><br />Could I catch COVID-19 again? The result is in.<br /><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-46819553395160004642022-01-03T12:01:00.016+00:002022-01-05T14:24:57.116+00:00COVID-19: THE EXPERIMENT. SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMxfHTlYjqOo3wre87tN7kvfG8lgxNxpsHx5nV_V2uuIvKZat-jy-uoP6cnpWZcywLCSuOESv3NynYKVYUIMESd4OfA8bZDkrPdBbjvXceqDjKWD7ucdqeEmIQpUOXRkOQRBHUUmUgsc1frNMEhH2U_bSKIcqmgVJ6OC0JDAyY5xd5WSJVNveu6g6rqQ=s3979" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3979" data-original-width="2238" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMxfHTlYjqOo3wre87tN7kvfG8lgxNxpsHx5nV_V2uuIvKZat-jy-uoP6cnpWZcywLCSuOESv3NynYKVYUIMESd4OfA8bZDkrPdBbjvXceqDjKWD7ucdqeEmIQpUOXRkOQRBHUUmUgsc1frNMEhH2U_bSKIcqmgVJ6OC0JDAyY5xd5WSJVNveu6g6rqQ=w113-h200" width="113" /></a></div>We noted before New Year that for someone fully-vaxed who has had Omicron, and is not clinically vulnerable, they are theoretically more immune to any variant of COVID-19 than at any time in this pandemic:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Unlikely to be re-infected with Omicron<br /></li><li>Well immune to Delta and earlier variants</li><li>Unlikely to be seriously ill, if do get infected<br /></li></ul><p>As a result, being 'free' to live life as if before the pandemic, subject to taking sensible precautions. And being mindful that immunity can wane.<br /></p><p>But we can't just say it. We have to test it. In the spirit of many scientists of previous generations, making myself the subject:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Passing the day 6 and day 7 Lateral Flow tests just in time to get out to a major crowded event for New Year's Eve (NYE)<br /></li><li>Throwing an 8-hour all-nighter in a crowded sweaty night club the night after</li></ul><p>Inevitably being exposed to Omicron and Delta, despite the venues checking for negative LFTs or vaccination. Some people would have been brewing one of the variants, and become infectious during the event. </p><p>I had had 4 daily negative Lateral Flow Test before going out on NYE.<b> </b>Well clear of infection, so no longer infectious<b>.</b> <br /></p><p>Indeed I've now heard four people I met at the NYE event have since tested positive, likely Omicron, with that event the only feasible source of infection. Two others remained negative.<br /></p><p></p><p><b></b></p><p><b>So, what about my LFT result after these events? <br /></b></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>Omicron grows in the nose very fast</b></a>. On Monday 3rd, it's more than 24 hours since leaving that nightclub, more than 48 hours after NYE. If I'd been re-infected, a Lateral Flow Test should show positive by now. It's negative. I've passed. </p><p></p><p>So far so good. But I'll be taking daily tests, which will monitor the situation daily to allow me to carry out my volunteer work. Testing probably for weeks to come. If I can get hold of tests. First box secured!</p><p><b>UPDATE 4 JANUARY</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZOtCEwFA51S4I6TOhU65Uzj0FGrDebN1ibqAfsnmz2xL5t65zoLBLC4fqDD7yVbF2KPCx3ZNTedksPjBxrajwZkvDhUeLq30joHVqFs7O-byK7i_f8B0ujE4RExZogKq1jhYCdekwDJ2kEc3aPbQdkhGxUi3ZeXnT2MK4WjH1cPh8__xl2UXcYMNDgQ=s3209" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3209" data-original-width="2042" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhZOtCEwFA51S4I6TOhU65Uzj0FGrDebN1ibqAfsnmz2xL5t65zoLBLC4fqDD7yVbF2KPCx3ZNTedksPjBxrajwZkvDhUeLq30joHVqFs7O-byK7i_f8B0ujE4RExZogKq1jhYCdekwDJ2kEc3aPbQdkhGxUi3ZeXnT2MK4WjH1cPh8__xl2UXcYMNDgQ=w127-h200" width="127" /></a></div>Hurrah! Negative LFT today. So, 3 days after end of NYE event and 2 days after end of NYD event:<p></p><ul style="margin-left: 160px; text-align: left;"><li>I have not been re-infected by Omicron</li><li>I have not caught Delta or any other variant</li><li>Freedom<br /></li></ul><p>.Daily tests will continue to make sure on an ongoing basis.<br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-46917016231307344662021-12-31T18:05:00.008+00:002022-01-03T10:30:40.750+00:00COVID-19: WHY OMICRON BEHAVES DIFFERENTLY<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjH299dXPFoo_KonDCy1EJu3g2BZboAKUI_YYbjEf4x4NUe3fiXjf_2K84Xle0mgFfsHEQe1AfC_QwWuKFEX6h-NSfDZK-i3fRKbtp3by0TqmuUqR0Hmw3Y0DCl6HcYyNCwod0ztj6vE9WgWfeXw9YWnuOMEFCoPpRc1TEwPahcYXMNjbgCgycTEPdRqA=s651" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="651" height="70" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjH299dXPFoo_KonDCy1EJu3g2BZboAKUI_YYbjEf4x4NUe3fiXjf_2K84Xle0mgFfsHEQe1AfC_QwWuKFEX6h-NSfDZK-i3fRKbtp3by0TqmuUqR0Hmw3Y0DCl6HcYyNCwod0ztj6vE9WgWfeXw9YWnuOMEFCoPpRc1TEwPahcYXMNjbgCgycTEPdRqA=w200-h70" width="200" /></a></div><b>STOP PRESS</b>: <a href="https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/Media_829360_smxx.pdf" target="_blank"><b>A paper just published by Glasgow University </b></a>shows the evidence for Omicron infecting human cells by a different mechanism from Delta and earlier variants. <p></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19cv21" target="_blank"><b>In an earlier blogpos</b>t</a>, we noted that the spike proteins of the COVID-19 virus (SARS-COV-2) bind to a receptor on human cells, which allows the
virus to infect the host cell. The receptor is called <a href="https://covidcourier.blogspot.com/2021/12/Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2" target="_blank"><b>ACE2 "Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2"</b></a><b> </b>We also noted that other coronaviruses bind through a different mechanism.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6eZmqHxUxOTfDUc-yeJ9tznw8Hg0Lc9zaKJil5KV8AECNJfFtZ25viEMEy1v-SiHqVvO1EvDELYfR6EJjLVfJAxdNUncXj5Uo0c-YzmeFRS8tvpltbf-CgU43WUPBxzBPa2wsfADO5Pr5CJb_FJ-hR4t1Czem2ZAE_qUk1RLmQ__nD9BqO7Le4oQS3Q=s700" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="700" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi6eZmqHxUxOTfDUc-yeJ9tznw8Hg0Lc9zaKJil5KV8AECNJfFtZ25viEMEy1v-SiHqVvO1EvDELYfR6EJjLVfJAxdNUncXj5Uo0c-YzmeFRS8tvpltbf-CgU43WUPBxzBPa2wsfADO5Pr5CJb_FJ-hR4t1Czem2ZAE_qUk1RLmQ__nD9BqO7Le4oQS3Q=w200-h191" width="200" /></a></div><br />The Omicron variant has a substantial number of changes to the spike protein, especially in the area known to bind to human cells. <p></p><p>The work by Glasgow University shows that is enough to change how it binds to human cells:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0I1vvGhVLwrFQBZI4pH_jTXPXUQ-Bx-WBbvkqwyt9d-nmQX20BjvfwX4poYJ06E2BcSgr1N8zUCOix6aZeO8h9YYLnuvorIpz5Wp4j5cxRj1A6l-FlPyGU93F4IeIis9mBf8cPI1HTplK_GSRN2o1wj_Se96CixX35MZtYBZl42pByEI6jOr_vKfwAA=s813" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="296" data-original-width="813" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg0I1vvGhVLwrFQBZI4pH_jTXPXUQ-Bx-WBbvkqwyt9d-nmQX20BjvfwX4poYJ06E2BcSgr1N8zUCOix6aZeO8h9YYLnuvorIpz5Wp4j5cxRj1A6l-FlPyGU93F4IeIis9mBf8cPI1HTplK_GSRN2o1wj_Se96CixX35MZtYBZl42pByEI6jOr_vKfwAA=w640-h234" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>SO WHAT IS HAPPENING?</b></p><p>The report says, in technical language:</p><p>"<i><b>Entry of SARS-CoV-2, and related coronaviruses, can proceed via two routes </b></i></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><i><b>Cell surface fusion following proteolysis by TMPRSS2,or</b></i></li><li><i><b>By the endosomal proteases Cathepsin B or L </b></i></li></ul><p><i><b>The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to achieve cell surface fusion is dependent on its S1/S2 polybasic cleavage site; this is absent from most closely related sarbecoviruses, which are confined to endosomal fusion Given the reduced fusogenicity and replication kinetics of Omicron, we used HIV pseudotypes to evaluate entry route preference. We evaluated Wuhan D614G, Alpha, Delta and Omicron spike and as a control we included Pangolin CoV (Guangdong isolate) spike, which exhibits high affinity interactions with human ACE2 but lacks a polybasic cleavage site and, therefore, enters via the endosome only</b></i>."</p><p>The key results show how Omicron closely matches Pangolin CoV, whereas Delta is entirely different:</p><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi57u62Ool0-FaLdRcfQdoaEXYCWFzUu89kw3gyrjlfeqlkiG5ktCLgbuV4IO1jbX4S4gIev8F2SCQHleLoxXtT2TRR4Qaqi77GGQ5OdrCvZQak9mFoPEvKvLP5UWkEsEjm68Flas9ubVFfwK-IcAdGk2qqL2HsmS5Mk0MbzojfJcizA2onOb4DILPzZA=s651" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="651" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi57u62Ool0-FaLdRcfQdoaEXYCWFzUu89kw3gyrjlfeqlkiG5ktCLgbuV4IO1jbX4S4gIev8F2SCQHleLoxXtT2TRR4Qaqi77GGQ5OdrCvZQak9mFoPEvKvLP5UWkEsEjm68Flas9ubVFfwK-IcAdGk2qqL2HsmS5Mk0MbzojfJcizA2onOb4DILPzZA=w640-h224" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?</b></p><p>Although the Delta and Omicron variants are clearly related, there are clear differences:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The difference in the way they bind to human cells, as above. </li><li>Consequently Omicron causing different symptoms more like mild flu, but with the possibility of serious disease, much like flu<br /></li><li>Omicron escapes natural and vaccination immunity for Delta and previous variants</li><li>Other differences set out <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19cv21" target="_blank"><b>in an earlier blogpost</b></a></li><li>Differences in how we should respond to Omicron, including<b> </b>the UK Government's response. Arguably the danger of hospitalisation is being eclipsed by the risk of <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>closure of key organisations in society, even serious disruption to food supply</b></a>. As written over a week ago. </li></ul><p>The Government is now asking <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848109" target="_blank"><b>each public sector organisation to prepare contingency plans for staff absenteeism rates of up to 25%</b></a>. Private sector organisations need to plan likewise. But what if that means you simply don't have the staff to provide a full service? What should be the priorities at that level of absence? How can you keep the organisation open? </p><p>It would have been better to prevent Omicron spreading at such high rate, as this blog has been advocating in several posts in the last couple of week. </p><div><div> The differences suggests Omicron should be regarded as a different disease. The response from individuals, organisations and the Government being specific to Omicron. Call the disease from Omicron "COVID-21" ? Maybe naming the virus "SARS-COV-3", rather than "-2".<p>Will the World Health Organisation do this? When they do, you heard it here first !<br /></p><p><br /> <br /></p><p></p><p><b><br /></b></p></div></div>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-52924995007385184012021-12-30T22:00:00.023+00:002022-01-05T14:25:50.517+00:00COVID-19: SO YOU’VE HAD OMICRON, WHAT NOW? (Plus notes if you haven't had it)<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOjR1hZKic5VEIGZRIBh3IylXM7tZxuGtKGFwoW2RVNS5HYvt9idyNM1oMqxCird013cL2NTEqtFRTeWc37x8yFf6K9aEPZnzmqptEPKTDKtYLEGeWCgZE2bq1iV0N5iIYIPWHUN9naZLp7NyDbfGynuZc18WTTk5HFT_ifOFau7au2jI2a7Ufk5TmSw=s275" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgOjR1hZKic5VEIGZRIBh3IylXM7tZxuGtKGFwoW2RVNS5HYvt9idyNM1oMqxCird013cL2NTEqtFRTeWc37x8yFf6K9aEPZnzmqptEPKTDKtYLEGeWCgZE2bq1iV0N5iIYIPWHUN9naZLp7NyDbfGynuZc18WTTk5HFT_ifOFau7au2jI2a7Ufk5TmSw=w200-h133" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Self-isolation almost over?<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>You’ve had a positive test for COVID-19. But you haven’t been told whether it is Omicron. </p><p>With COVID-19 cases in the UK now over 100,000 a day, in some areas over 95% Omicron, it's most likely an Omicron infection. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><b>You’ve also read this blogpost</b></a>, looked in detail, and have concluded that you've had infection from Omicron. <br /></p><p></p><p>What does it mean for you after self-isolation ends, having had Omicron?<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>How freely can you live your life?</li><li>Should you continue with basic precautions, such as using Lateral Flow Tests and wearing masks?</li></ul><p>This depends on your wider circumstances. including:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Have you had COVID-19 before, some time before Omicron reached your area?</li><li>How many vaccinations have you had? Most younger people won’t have had chance to have 2 vaccines and a booster. Many children none.<br /></li><li>Are you deemed "clinically vulnerable"?</li><li>Age and other factors that can affect the risks of serious disease</li></ul><p></p><p><b>WHAT IF YOU HAVEN'T HAD OMICRON?</b> <br /></p><p></p><p>There's also a section at the end of this blogpost, relevant if you, your family and friends haven't had Omicron. Yet.<br /></p><p><b>WHAT DO WE NEED TO CONSIDER?</b><br /></p><p>We need to consider these principles when assessing each person’s risks:<br /></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Omicron successfully bypasses almost all cases of 2 jabs, and can also partially ‘escape’ the booster, as confirmed by research work by Glasgow University: <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivhkf7YxggcS4HjjP-if8I9tNVJDInPwxIm2aMTq1Dbx2N3PIbdR_FF8M6cFUzOGgPPkSAxMvVWVSSHY6qN7_V89m0xp1YLNjMUfPBNH8Bsup2t_Enq4m6sbhOB1Qu4OfSzi8bbFzCOBQ_-d2A2TGqRsrWugn0nRAk-gF9pO4eJ9j8psP_txFRQU3qyA=s773" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="181" data-original-width="773" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEivhkf7YxggcS4HjjP-if8I9tNVJDInPwxIm2aMTq1Dbx2N3PIbdR_FF8M6cFUzOGgPPkSAxMvVWVSSHY6qN7_V89m0xp1YLNjMUfPBNH8Bsup2t_Enq4m6sbhOB1Qu4OfSzi8bbFzCOBQ_-d2A2TGqRsrWugn0nRAk-gF9pO4eJ9j8psP_txFRQU3qyA=w400-h94" width="400" /></a><br /></div> Which is why you caught it, if you are double- or triple-jabbed<br /></li><li>Existing vaccines are very effective at stopping Delta and earlier variants, at least in preventing serious disease, <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1960" target="_blank"><b>as explained in this BMJ article</b></a> </li><li>Having natural immunity from having had Omicron, it is extremely unlikely in principle to be re-infected by Omicron, though it is too early to know for sure. Similarly unlikely to be reinfected by the same earlier variants. But reinfection by a different earlier variant is possible. (<a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>Best to regard Omicron and other variants as different diseases</b></a>, albeit related)<br /></li><li>It is unclear whether infection from Omicron reduces chance of infection from Delta and earlier variants</li><li>We should expect other variant(s) to appear that are different from both Delta and Omicron, and bypass immunity from vaccines or natural infection. Sooner rather than later, and you may be exposed to it before it becomes public</li></ol><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLPMCdOdc-VQFdBVoEhHMCj083hWoLIfWzkAQayojGT71ZUEmE5Z6_is5zdeN2dyZkSCOBnhna6B8jubVNQoBW79WzFeuESu-3HAdhCUjsMOvUJ4CFKyPb-H8nRLmqrvD1rk_EljbdzYg1yEej7r1zC2ShLLfVeLlyYybwZp-K_Ox7QqBrIH7VfTjZwQ=s106" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="106" data-original-width="105" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiLPMCdOdc-VQFdBVoEhHMCj083hWoLIfWzkAQayojGT71ZUEmE5Z6_is5zdeN2dyZkSCOBnhna6B8jubVNQoBW79WzFeuESu-3HAdhCUjsMOvUJ4CFKyPb-H8nRLmqrvD1rk_EljbdzYg1yEej7r1zC2ShLLfVeLlyYybwZp-K_Ox7QqBrIH7VfTjZwQ" width="105" /></a></div>Let’s consider someone, fictional, who:<br /><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Is older, could do with losing a few pounds, and deemed of ‘medium’ vulnerability by GP </li><li>Triple jabbed, over 2 weeks ago</li><li>Has had Omicron, but not disease from any other COVID-19 variant</li></ul><p></p><p><b>RISK ASSESSMENT</b><br /></p><p>That person:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Is very unlikely to be reinfected by Omicron</li><li>Has high immunity to Delta and earlier variants, and if catch it, symptoms are likely to be mild</li><li>Is open to infection from any future new variant that can bypass vaccines and natural Omicron immunity. </li></ul><p>i.e. <br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Very low risk of being re-infected with Omicron</li><li>Very low risk of catching Delta or earlier variants</li><li>Very low risk of catching a new variant before its existence is publicised, when behaviour can be adjusted</li><li>At least until immunity fades <br /></li></ul><p>In each case with symptoms likely to be light, if COVID is caught.<br /></p><p>Whilst risk can never be eliminated, this person has very low risk of catching any form of COVID-19 and for that to result in serious disease.</p><p>Life is all about risk, such as crossing a road or cycling down the road. The risk of COVID-19 to life and health is somewhat similar. At a low enough level that the risk can almost be ignored, provided you take as much care as crossing the road or cycling.. <br /></p><p>That means generally going about life as before the pandemic, attending any event, going to work, and.. living life ‘free’. At least until the next nasty variant appears.<br /></p><p>But there are people who ought to take more care:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Those who are clinically vulnerable. It is up to them to assess their own risk/reward balance for specific situations, and what risk is worth taking.</li><li>Those who have not been fully booster-vaxed, including children<br /></li></ul><p><br /><b>WHAT ABOUT ONGOING PRECAUTIONS?</b><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjL8jZc4JadHe0FCBl3Zj_PUhQKCbb_afbrei2PD0xE8NpN7QYzy5aUe0QjT4NOZ0Yi7pBucIcWhMVzvfQUzwcGgI84uDyD0VBAyWr0WQHj3daSOGyBIJv_10b_BTjZNqe16zjVscRdRWZmcHAT7QOrwnDepTJ3pAzFUl8DmDAZxaY7rS0s2L3FrvvcA=s275" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjL8jZc4JadHe0FCBl3Zj_PUhQKCbb_afbrei2PD0xE8NpN7QYzy5aUe0QjT4NOZ0Yi7pBucIcWhMVzvfQUzwcGgI84uDyD0VBAyWr0WQHj3daSOGyBIJv_10b_BTjZNqe16zjVscRdRWZmcHAT7QOrwnDepTJ3pAzFUl8DmDAZxaY7rS0s2L3FrvvcA=w200-h133" width="200" /></a></div>As there is a risk of catching COVID-19, and potentially passing disease on to other people, continuation of basic precautions is sensible. This is mainly for protection of others, and should be regarded as a civic duty:<br /><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Taking a Lateral Flow Test before prolonged contact with other people, if necessary daily</li><li>As far as possible meet in outside or well-ventilated areas</li><li>Wearing masks on public transport and other places where you could easily pass infection to others. Pubs and restaurants where food and drink is consumed need to be a practical exception.<br /></li><li>Other basic precautions, such as washing hands <br /></li></ul><p><b>WHAT ABOUT CATCHING OMICRON DELIBERATELY?</b><br /></p><p>If you, friends or family haven’t had Omicron, is it worth catching it deliberately? Going to a 'COVID party', like 'chicken pox parties' perhaps.<br /></p><p>In most cases, it looks like Omicron infection is milder than Delta. But:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>It’s too early to tell how serious infection from Omicron is going to be, and how common especially in people who are inherently more vulnerable</li><li>It’s too early to tell how bad LongCovid is going to be. Probably more common than with earlier variants, due to the speed it can spread around the body to damage other susceptible organs</li></ul><p></p><p>So no, it is unwise to atttempt to catch Omicron deliberately. <br /></p><p>But take a few more risks? Frankly that’s how I caught it, when it was raining and I had the choice of sitting indoors in the pub or going home. Knowing it was a risk to sit indoors, but feeling I was going to catch Omicron some time anyway, and knowing I had the protection of being triple vaxed against Delta. Likewise taking risks is up to you.<br /> </p><p><b>IN CONCLUSION</b></p><p>If you've had Omicron:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>If you're triple vaxed, and not highly vulnerable, you may consider the risk of a further serious COVID-19 infection to be low enough to get back to living life 'normally'. Albeit taking basic precautions, pricipally to protect others<br /></li><li>But not fully vaxed, and/or vulnerable, continue to take care!</li></ul><p>If you haven't had Omicron:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Don't catch it deliberately</li><li>But perhaps be willing to take a few more risks </li></ul><p><b> </b></p><p><b>UPDATE 4 JANUARY </b></p><p>New Year events provided the opportunity to test the 'live life normally' freedom proposition. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19experiment" target="_blank"><b>Here's what happened.</b></a><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-13566487668999772112021-12-28T22:35:00.026+00:002022-01-03T21:39:05.965+00:00COVID-19: OR IS IT NOW COVID-21 ?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfFt8_FdeTqY2vnZXVLGSLAePOW4fHHQjfE8DtjOozghBGRrUSC2cCxZRsLMzyErZHQHqkWGfryfEtDNyIBfkbvgY6UmABBzkGkS0oWMjLwMEYNQ4Bs0a1pl44oBdjlX6qcOzRWLQoQpkbcllQuQ0PJKAlnfoY2emGArU3FnJQ-IXLW0th--XiHdoR_w=s245" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="245" data-original-width="155" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfFt8_FdeTqY2vnZXVLGSLAePOW4fHHQjfE8DtjOozghBGRrUSC2cCxZRsLMzyErZHQHqkWGfryfEtDNyIBfkbvgY6UmABBzkGkS0oWMjLwMEYNQ4Bs0a1pl44oBdjlX6qcOzRWLQoQpkbcllQuQ0PJKAlnfoY2emGArU3FnJQ-IXLW0th--XiHdoR_w=w127-h200" width="127" /></a></div>A week or so ago, this blog ran a post called "<a href="https://bit.ly/cv19covid21" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: SURELY OMICRON'S DISEASE SHOULD BE CALLED COVID-21?</b></a>" This reflected a host of differences between the diseases caused by the Delta and Omicron viruses.<p></p><p>Since then a similar notion has been appearing in the mainstream media. (Isn't it good to be ahead of them again!). For example the Guardian ran a story this week headlined "<i><b><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/28/omicron-is-not-the-same-disease-as-earlier-covid-waves-says-uk-scientist?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other" target="_blank">Omicron is ‘not the same disease’ as earlier Covid waves</a>, says UK scientist</b></i>". That's Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and the UK Government’s life sciences adviser.</p><p>The last week has also allowed us to get a better understanding of Omicron disease, although there are still some major uncertainties.</p><p>Let's examine what we do know, and what we don't, and consider:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Whether it would be helpful to regard Omicron as causing a different disease, let's say COVID-21, regardless of official World Health Organisation conventions and names</li><li>Whether the Government is right to avoid further disease prevention controls (which is the positive side of 'restrictions')<br /></li></ul><p><b>FIRSTLY, A BASIC INTRODUCTION TO CORONAVIRUSES</b> </p><p>The virus that causes COVID-19 disease is officially called SARS-COV-2. It is<b> </b>one of seven types<b> </b>of coronaviruses found in humans, with many more found in other animals such as bats: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8_fvZ1NJCaZ61E4NJGt-yDJ0GpS-Oja2vIhSxua6tb09xEbBVOBGnhFPRPxjDz2oIuug5VGJJzgChjhUFMHvXZOAmsP0jKu5f8DYxzuf9Npz112kpl3bZyBOZjxWlEClWkTuE4jpilIJrKAaaMJqyJ2E9YldzLdp7HnvPRh-QftECB7p3VeOlXKTnog=s776" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="776" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh8_fvZ1NJCaZ61E4NJGt-yDJ0GpS-Oja2vIhSxua6tb09xEbBVOBGnhFPRPxjDz2oIuug5VGJJzgChjhUFMHvXZOAmsP0jKu5f8DYxzuf9Npz112kpl3bZyBOZjxWlEClWkTuE4jpilIJrKAaaMJqyJ2E9YldzLdp7HnvPRh-QftECB7p3VeOlXKTnog=w640-h520" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhaUEXaVfl79McJn8sbu0O1lyZeEh06-GN4IXD0yKVENsKG2KWKmnRHdd6t6dcj9fh_rqTDo-s0GgNM4lCT3A6XeiPQDetmjRVU_DRFjfVlSsY9mCCQJKztZVCe1PeC8bz5wlpz3-GD6nDJi52G-3s4efyiM8t2UEbqwlNuQYhX9ooGLmGDAmBHDkr4eA=s220" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="172" data-original-width="220" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhaUEXaVfl79McJn8sbu0O1lyZeEh06-GN4IXD0yKVENsKG2KWKmnRHdd6t6dcj9fh_rqTDo-s0GgNM4lCT3A6XeiPQDetmjRVU_DRFjfVlSsY9mCCQJKztZVCe1PeC8bz5wlpz3-GD6nDJi52G-3s4efyiM8t2UEbqwlNuQYhX9ooGLmGDAmBHDkr4eA" width="220" /></a></div>Coronaviruses are so-called because they have a central ‘body’ out of which poke ‘spike proteins’ that look like a crown, or ‘corona’. <p></p><p>These spike proteins bind to a receptor on human cells, which allows the virus to infect the host cell. In the case of SARS-COV-2 and some other coronaviruses, the receptor is called <a href="Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2" target="_blank"><b>ACE2 "Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2"</b></a>. <br /></p><p>‘Variants’ are slightly different from each other, especially in having different spike proteins. Here are the changes in Omicron::<br /> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgz52iUVjobZgWiU-4uaGsswxRcnno3Ql_ZCVJJDE_Y33hmv6w9jPLHwqvnXqg-Sj3qRlX6sdjhUG_UnxRl3ebcGEyjSNwqhgW5qPJK3O01ygdGzh1BVAQWELJGzT2ApJr0bMG_RQSWCdqec2-9lU0g3RaUzZbFx_WtTDu67CJBrp6j5bQCUwl_IfAcdA=s700" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="700" height="305" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgz52iUVjobZgWiU-4uaGsswxRcnno3Ql_ZCVJJDE_Y33hmv6w9jPLHwqvnXqg-Sj3qRlX6sdjhUG_UnxRl3ebcGEyjSNwqhgW5qPJK3O01ygdGzh1BVAQWELJGzT2ApJr0bMG_RQSWCdqec2-9lU0g3RaUzZbFx_WtTDu67CJBrp6j5bQCUwl_IfAcdA=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br />Simplistically for SARS-COV-2:<br /><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The different spike proteins in the different variants have different binding capabilities. The better they bind to the ACE2 receptors, the faster the disease will spread from person-to-person and within each individual (see update <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>in this post, re Omicron using a different mechanism</b></a>)<br /></li><li>Differences in the body of the virus determine how severe the disease will be. Especially the RNA it contains</li></ul><p>The four viruses that have mild symptoms like ‘common colds’, with only occasional serious symptoms, spread at different rates. At the other end of the severity spectrum, SARS-COV-1 and MERS-COV viruses produce much more serious disease (SARS and MERS respectively). Too often including death. But fortunately these two viruses do not spread easily, and so were relatively easy to stop spreading much further outside of the local area in which they were first found. <br /></p><p>The fear after SARS and MERS was that there could be another coronavirus that spreads more quickly and easily, whilst also causing moderate to severe symptoms. <br /></p><p>SARS-COV-2 is that virus family, with moderately bad symptoms (between common colds and SARS/MERS), with <a href="https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/" target="_blank"><b>variants </b></a>that have become increasingly good at infecting people: </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1RqdV5z6EnslUTHb0CxZV5kagaTlKZHrTVyma7pFOY2O-H6JxW2_gl7-upqUdhS6NPAMZrIh-6nCQcxC3zbKKI0vmMcYMCZAVEEXQILtEIn6vKO7JhClzVX-8U291Dcmsm0RuIyCQHU3WvQtGZ_NdnyPXNdoPuy5iAMkwszrs5i-E6MA6tRYRGQ5ZMA=s869" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="869" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1RqdV5z6EnslUTHb0CxZV5kagaTlKZHrTVyma7pFOY2O-H6JxW2_gl7-upqUdhS6NPAMZrIh-6nCQcxC3zbKKI0vmMcYMCZAVEEXQILtEIn6vKO7JhClzVX-8U291Dcmsm0RuIyCQHU3WvQtGZ_NdnyPXNdoPuy5iAMkwszrs5i-E6MA6tRYRGQ5ZMA=w640-h462" width="640" /></a></div><p>Omicron is the fastest-spreading variant so far. But how serious is it?<b><br /> </b></p><p><b>LET'S FIRST CONSIDER LONG COVID</b><br /></p><p>A significant proportion of people who have been infected byearlier variants of COVID-19, whether they have been hospitalised or not, have long term symptoms. Longer than three months, and sometimes longer than a year. These may be ongoing symptoms similar to originally experienced, or additional symptoms. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19longcovidons" target="_blank"><b>Collectively called LongCovid.</b></a><br /></p><p>We need to realise that it is not just cells in the respiratory tract that have <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiotensin-converting_enzyme_2" target="_blank"><b>ACE2 receptors</b></a>. These are present in many organs including heart, intestines, kidney, gallbladder and testis. Yes you men, your testicles!<br /></p><p>When SARS-COV-2 gets into the bloodstream, as can happen when infected cells burst:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The virus is transported to other organs, where cells can become infected, damaging the organ</li><li>The virus also causes microclots in the blood, which can themselves cause organ damage. The brain is especially susceptible, with a common symptom being<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/185-million-to-tackle-long-covid-through-research#:~:text=Long%20COVID%20can%20present%20with,people%20experience%20organ%20damage." target="_blank"><b> <span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">fatigue and cognitive impairment or ‘brain fog’</span></span></b></a></li></ul><p></p><p>The higher the case rate, the higher the number of LongCovid cases:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Affecting the lives of a large number of people, with worst cases not having the health to work</li><li>Putting additional strain on GPs, who are already over-stretched</li><li>Putting additional strain on NHS specialist services, taking expert medics away from dealing with other health conditions</li></ul><p>In addition, a proportion of people will have long-term and sometimes severe lethargy. This can be the body’s response to any severe illness. Lethargy is a common complaint of people who have had COVID-19, even mildly.</p><p>But how common is LongCovid in people who have had Omicron? As discussed below, Omicron has attributes that could make LongCovid more common. Too early to tell, but the risk is more LongCovid with Omicron - potentially worse symptoms in a higher proportion of people. <br /></p><p><b>WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT OMICRON SO FAR</b><br /></p><p><b>Speed of spread</b> <br /></p><p>All viruses can mutate as they replicate. SARS-COV-2 mutates less than many other viruses. But it still mutates, to produce different variants such as Omicron. This has mutations on the spike protein which has three results:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b><a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/" target="_blank">Even when the body’s immune system is primed through vaccination or prior infection, the system does not recognise Omicron</a></b> as the same threat as earlier variants. Omicron therefore substantially ‘escapes’ our immunity to other variants<br /></li><li>It looks like Omicron’s spike proteins bind more easily to host cells than the original virus and earlier variants</li><li>As a result, people become infectious more quickly, in just a few hours </li></ul><p>Studies on how fast Omicron can spread include this <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-omicron-vs-delta-replication-19-december-2021/imperial-college-london-omicron-vs-delta-replication-19-december-2021" target="_blank"><b>published by Imperial College London</b></a> last week:</p><p>1. "<i><b>In human nasal airway epithelial cells (<abbr title="human nasal airway epithelial cells">HAE</abbr>)
Omicron showed a large early replication advantage, yielding viral load
titres ~100-fold higher than for Delta by 24 hours post infection</b></i>." This graph has a log scale, so adding 2 means multiplying 100 times: <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8bnJUgZw9nTIOLjFawRPzCJBTquYYoo3WzBPG4tK3gld_VJFqihaaKP4hSIdsOW8Gw2ZIjBXLAmaK6pR4ObYXzWrSiBgMv08kTR5OPoKcMLA-0zN7UsrDF7A8O6pvQ5XNLatAoAVP_DATHe3M8iea5P_4JPY0MkzXX5_hNchb6avVH7lVrTzYhMY28Q=s241" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="241" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8bnJUgZw9nTIOLjFawRPzCJBTquYYoo3WzBPG4tK3gld_VJFqihaaKP4hSIdsOW8Gw2ZIjBXLAmaK6pR4ObYXzWrSiBgMv08kTR5OPoKcMLA-0zN7UsrDF7A8O6pvQ5XNLatAoAVP_DATHe3M8iea5P_4JPY0MkzXX5_hNchb6avVH7lVrTzYhMY28Q" width="241" /></a></div>2. Omicron propagates differently to Delta, forming smaller plaques:<br /><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEht_c1AIKD6L8kiDZhUr58zIqUVBOOf8oYtOiOig4enMdnuzrEja8-hYv9Nvzai32gdnezxrFR_3PbVUSXO5RHg666T6-hKysyhFrdle08QvqGU4q7kpOSyy16NrTO747e4RJH9DY9Zjv28XC2uZzdqwTN2kbfOZ2vhgI8BnxQC0cArO4k-7EHmF7N3Gg=s960" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="960" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEht_c1AIKD6L8kiDZhUr58zIqUVBOOf8oYtOiOig4enMdnuzrEja8-hYv9Nvzai32gdnezxrFR_3PbVUSXO5RHg666T6-hKysyhFrdle08QvqGU4q7kpOSyy16NrTO747e4RJH9DY9Zjv28XC2uZzdqwTN2kbfOZ2vhgI8BnxQC0cArO4k-7EHmF7N3Gg=s320" width="320" /></a></div><p>Omicron spreads very fast!<b> <br /></b></p><p><b>Severity of Symptoms</b> </p><p>If Omicron caused only mild symptoms similar to the four common cold coronaviruses, we could just let it spread, and everyone have maybe a couple of days unwell and off work. Much like colds and flu </p><p>If we could easily test for specific variants, there could be different rules for self-isolation with Omicron, and we could possibly be more relaxed about high case rates, subject to the uncertainties below.<br /></p><p>Fortunately it does seem that symptoms are mild, at least for people who are well jabbed. Hence the UK Government putting stress on people getting the booster. </p><p>The common symptoms of Omicron are different to those for Delta and earlier variants.<br /></p><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Delta and earlier variants:</span></span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Continuous cough <br /></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Loss of taste and smell</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>High temperature <br /></span></span></li></ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/coronavirus-omicron-variant-symptoms-vs-delta-variant-four-symptoms-of-omicron-that-are-different-from-delta/photostory/88493946.cms" target="_blank"><b>Omicron</b></a>: </span></span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span> Like a common cold (like some other Coronaviruses)</span></span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Sore throat, and importantly a hoarse/scratchy voice as the first symptom<br /></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Runny nose</span></span></li></ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Different</span></span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Headache</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Fatigue </span></span></li></ul></ul></ul><p><b>WHAT ARE THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES?</b> <br /></p><p>But there are still some major uncertainties, as Omicron is so new, even after pooling knowledge from around the world:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Omicron infection has been mainly in younger generations. We don’t yet know how severe infection will typically be in older generations and for others who are at higher risk.</li><li>We don’t know what proportion of those infected will typically require hospital treatment, of those who will need intensive care, and how many will die. We need to know by age group. Whilst the proportion of serious cases may be below that for earlier variants, very high case rates could still mean large numbers requiring hospital care. </li><li>We also need to know the difference for people of different vaccination status. Omicron is likely to be more serious for the unvaccinated. Hopefully vaccines may make symptoms less severe, even if vaccinated people are still getting infected <br /></li><li>As hospitalisation lags infection by a week or two, it is still too early to tell whether the surge in cases in the last week or so will translate into high numbers requiring hospital treatment. Though early indications are not good. That's because if high numbers do result, it will be too late to do much about it. High numbers infected and about to require hospital treatment will already be 'baked in’</li><li>LongCovid: We don’t know what proportion of people infected will have long term symptoms. More or less in number? Different symptoms, perhaps? But as Omicron spreads more quickly through the body, our intial assumption should be a higher proportion of those infected with Omicron may suffer from LongCovid, more seriously.<br /></li></ul><p></p><p></p><p><br /><b>SO IS OMICRON CAUSING A DIFFERENT DISEASE? </b></p><p>We know:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>There is a different set of initial symptoms, somewhat milder than for Delta and earlier variants</li><li>Cases are spreading and growing far more quickly than earlier variants</li><li>Omicron is ‘escaping’ immunity, both from vaccines or prior infection</li><li>Therefore the best Government response to Omicron could be different from that for earlier variants<br /></li></ul><p>It is therefore sensible to regard the disease as different, with a different name. With 2021 almost at an end, let’s call it COVID-21. (See Update at foot of this post)<br /></p><p>We effectively have two overlapping pandemics:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>COVID-21 caused by Omicron</li><li>COVID-19 caused by Delta and other variants</li></ul><p></p><p>Yet our tests cannot yet distinguish Omicron from other variants. We have to fight it as if it were a single COVID disease<br /><br /><b>WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UK GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE?</b> </p><p>We asked earlier “Whether the UK Government is right to avoid further disease prevention controls (otherwise known as 'restrictions')”<br /></p><p>In reality, we have to manage all COVID-19 infections in the same way at the community level, given:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>So many uncertainties on the severity of Omicron disease, beyond relatively mild initial symptoms</li><li>No easy way to identify which cases are Omicron</li></ul><p>But where an individual is <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><b>clearly infected with Omicron</b></a>, it is more useful to think in terms of a different ‘COVID-21’ disease. “COVID” could be the term covering both 19 and 21.<br /></p><p>In the UK, the length of self-isolation has been reduced from '10 days' to '7 days'. Though the definition of day differs, so that it actually means nearly 4 days earlier., not 3 . Counting infection day (or positive test) as day zero, the original rules were that infected people should self-isolate for the next 10 days, and can stop self-isolating as day 11 starts at 0001 hours. Subject to certain conditions, the new rules allow someone to stop self-isolation after a negative test on day 7, nearly four days earlier than before. (not 3). The USA has gone a stage further, reducing that to 5 days. <br /></p><p>Five days would be good for Omicron, to avoid as much <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>disruption as Omicron is causing</b></a>, with organisations having to close or run on substantially reduced staff. The NHS is currently suffering the combination of high case rates and being short staffed. Furthermore the worry is the risk of major disruption to the food supply chain.</p><p>Perhaps 5 days may be comfortable for cases of Omicron, if we can be confident of low consequences, such as low incidence of LongCovid. But 5 days is difficult to accept for other variants, where the co0nsequences of infection we know to be serious in many cases.</p><p>Or could we say that Omicron is now so dominant, the chance of catching another variant is substantially reduced? If that was the case, perhaps we could treat all infections as Omicron and potentially be more relaxed on restrictions. </p><p>But we have major uncertainties of the severity of Omicron:<br /></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Generally</li><li>In older people, and others at higher risk</li><li>For LongCovid</li></ul><p>There are <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>also unacceptable risks to society due to so many people being off work ill</b></a>. It is therefore madness to allow high case rates. Hospitalisation levels are only one consequence.</p><p>Whilst nobody wants to see tougher restrictions, not to do so is taking enormous risks with NHS, food supply and much else. Action is needed to reduce spread of the disease. There’s no time to lose, given how quicjkly Omicron / COVID-21 is spreading.</p><p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/imperial-college-london-omicron-vs-delta-replication-19-december-2021/imperial-college-london-omicron-vs-delta-replication-19-december-2021" target="_blank"><b>As Imperial College says in conclusion</b></a> of their report last eyar, where NPI means Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions such as lockdowns:<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMoHJnHlF28CPBXxNFPMh-CYblVLpT8gsY-1MFBmuuZxNpQ29KKpfHZY5ylgpTaKTRMlk2Et-hNmGI1rJci617ADKA3k6_QXqKbhGz_-5QABh8QnJFg7FQfPmAjDQ3P8RPb6YTD0hX1elc3rPkp8bfhWcKCgldSBxMo5ELiC8nRwBfnX6YJ3aVoRUhbA=s767" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="326" data-original-width="767" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMoHJnHlF28CPBXxNFPMh-CYblVLpT8gsY-1MFBmuuZxNpQ29KKpfHZY5ylgpTaKTRMlk2Et-hNmGI1rJci617ADKA3k6_QXqKbhGz_-5QABh8QnJFg7FQfPmAjDQ3P8RPb6YTD0hX1elc3rPkp8bfhWcKCgldSBxMo5ELiC8nRwBfnX6YJ3aVoRUhbA=w640-h272" width="640" /></a></div><b>UPDATE 31/12/21</b>: Research by Glasgow University shows <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicrondiff" target="_blank"><b>Omicron infects human cells by a different mechansim</b></a> to ACE2. All the more reason to regard Omicron as a different disease. Let's call it COVID-21 <br /></div><br />CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-20213850136387407142021-12-28T07:47:00.006+00:002022-01-03T21:22:46.596+00:00COVID-19: ALREADY NEGATIVE<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiX3VlbM7816trhRGlWCbmjmlQZ8PM1nZCN6TxmQUb1XArQDl0mF0uoVfHHkRbD29hMdv46QdLAUi_FD0kHaRIj-rdbuJdDImLaaTxJqr9eBQLF9pQ8KHp4HGrE24ZF4enjerbfk_cOdhUo6Dms_fbtTdd8M7FJ6t0G169mkc9KH3pAh-p_CRxFqeuihw=s2324" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2324" data-original-width="1521" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiX3VlbM7816trhRGlWCbmjmlQZ8PM1nZCN6TxmQUb1XArQDl0mF0uoVfHHkRbD29hMdv46QdLAUi_FD0kHaRIj-rdbuJdDImLaaTxJqr9eBQLF9pQ8KHp4HGrE24ZF4enjerbfk_cOdhUo6Dms_fbtTdd8M7FJ6t0G169mkc9KH3pAh-p_CRxFqeuihw=w131-h200" width="131" /></a></div>I've woken up this morning full of the joys of spring. Well, full of the joys of Isolation at Twixtmas.<p></p><p>Having tested positive on Boxing Day, two days ago, could I already have
overcome COVID? A negative LFT provides the answer, using the same brand and box as
was positive 2 days ago. Though I cannot rely on one test alone. No guarantee I am yet virus-free. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifp4xi5tKEeytXcF1YdBUrgJ71QHFOEhRVs2yJn2whgAoA12Si3IBPmwvPTzGt_fw-jjf0Ep8qsWz7-SVrpeNvbtmEB8CfzNsC4eRKV6Z9NtdndLVnQZt1DTB0dYliMZm_NHPGQ4lezJst-hW97SKXtg1AhW4ixMSyu5_LeV9KEDFhKlnlz7-w4Co1-Q=s3389" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2525" data-original-width="3389" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifp4xi5tKEeytXcF1YdBUrgJ71QHFOEhRVs2yJn2whgAoA12Si3IBPmwvPTzGt_fw-jjf0Ep8qsWz7-SVrpeNvbtmEB8CfzNsC4eRKV6Z9NtdndLVnQZt1DTB0dYliMZm_NHPGQ4lezJst-hW97SKXtg1AhW4ixMSyu5_LeV9KEDFhKlnlz7-w4Co1-Q=w200-h149" width="200" /></a></div><p></p><p>Will try again tomorrow. [Drum roll: Negative again] In any case I cannot legally leave isolation until 7 days are up.</p><p>But looks like my jabs and booster has prepared my body for the COVID onslaught. Flattening the curce, and/or getting the infection to turn down more quickly. <br /></p><p> </p><p>This graph suggests an LFT should be able to detect infection betweem 3 and 8 days after exposure to the virus. Though this is just a guide. Everybody and every infection is different <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19catchit" target="_blank"><b>As discussed here</b></a>, the most likely source of my infection was less than 36 hours before the positive LFT, consistent with the rapid growth of Omicron. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1C5THUSQ-XLdRsLOOJsA9Hl7GlhXdefqtOKyAKf_8ifoVYfOz6-3KfN6hsgjEtkBzEZuIJqSFG-1hhUkpNnYa7m2qnxkyN2oPZZuAgDsyX4955Y4UaqeduZeCbAJ5jR_CqVWWLF3KpwfWfgKNybuZnav4xBib613tF0mWQzPnTPaNWE5qDHW7840oog=s700" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="700" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg1C5THUSQ-XLdRsLOOJsA9Hl7GlhXdefqtOKyAKf_8ifoVYfOz6-3KfN6hsgjEtkBzEZuIJqSFG-1hhUkpNnYa7m2qnxkyN2oPZZuAgDsyX4955Y4UaqeduZeCbAJ5jR_CqVWWLF3KpwfWfgKNybuZnav4xBib613tF0mWQzPnTPaNWE5qDHW7840oog=w640-h398" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Now just three and a half days after infection, it looks like I may no longer be infectious. But will continue to self-isolate just in case. And of course to comply with the law.<br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-67105952979406839812021-12-27T22:01:00.003+00:002022-01-03T21:21:33.615+00:00COVID-19: HOW TO CATCH IT (AND HOW TO AVOID IT)<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEik_FssmeWnaWXHsMM5UA082syhHdh4L1mM0_P8URFMeL39-YcKCFFy8g9rIOvkfdmD6MLtHI342sVoQXNoslTLUYZ7CXS4Oexd_ohXdKkwPrdEcS5JG9jfQKsIlCzvRomiR2uPBa2G6XTjga63xIMe_O7HjNtVlj9qHa91NMFk6ULhUiiIUglnglMCVQ=s4000" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3000" data-original-width="4000" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEik_FssmeWnaWXHsMM5UA082syhHdh4L1mM0_P8URFMeL39-YcKCFFy8g9rIOvkfdmD6MLtHI342sVoQXNoslTLUYZ7CXS4Oexd_ohXdKkwPrdEcS5JG9jfQKsIlCzvRomiR2uPBa2G6XTjga63xIMe_O7HjNtVlj9qHa91NMFk6ULhUiiIUglnglMCVQ=w200-h150" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The pub empty last Wednesday<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>On Christmas Eve, I went to a pub for a drink and to meet friends. It was raining. The outdoor area we normally use is well-ventilated but the covered seating was full. Another covered area was dry, but these tables were not being served by the table-ordering system. <p></p><p>The choice was sit inside the pub proper, or go home. My pals had chosen the latter. There was one empty table that was a couple of metres away from anybody else. Should be OK. I knew it was a risk. But let's take it.</p><p>On Boxing Day morning, the LFT came up positive. Given how easily Omicron spreads, and how quickly it can replicate in the body, it is almost certain that I caught Conid-19 on Christmas Eve in that pub.</p><p>How? After we'd been told about social distancing and the 2-metre rule, it turns out that this advice was erroneous. With Omicron (and Delta) so prevalent, it is now so easy to catch COVID simply by being indoors with other people. Especially if they are laughing and shouting, spreading virus-laden droplets and smaller 'aerosols' far into the air.<br /></p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/" target="_blank"><b>This article describes the battle to get COVID's primary means of transmission, through the air, recognised</b></a>. That 2 metres is simply not enough. Any area needs to be well-ventilated, so any virus-laden droplets and aerosols are blown away. My table in the pub was not well ventilated. I paid the price..<br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-19928044552978232582021-12-27T18:19:00.026+00:002022-01-13T19:56:39.503+00:00COVID-19: OMICRON OR DELTA?<p></p><b></b><div style="text-align: right;"><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19positivepcr" target="_blank"><b></b></a><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19positivepcr" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhRrcOamdCC6NuI5x-iQ3FiPgDYUer4xY9mtA04xEh7jkfTk0nDads4DHw_H8021cYnq5Ek0VmxbTARZl6BB2984yl5ueKK4xACZahQlnHhdmL9HZXmnz2-JikroAdgS6FDzM6rJSpkTUYc10khBwZH48UnA8Srb-nVqlv6729lyBjj4b1avWiEJECoQ=s225" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="225" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjhRrcOamdCC6NuI5x-iQ3FiPgDYUer4xY9mtA04xEh7jkfTk0nDads4DHw_H8021cYnq5Ek0VmxbTARZl6BB2984yl5ueKK4xACZahQlnHhdmL9HZXmnz2-JikroAdgS6FDzM6rJSpkTUYc10khBwZH48UnA8Srb-nVqlv6729lyBjj4b1avWiEJECoQ" width="225" /></a></div></b></div><p>Earlier we looked at the <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19positivepcr" target="_blank"><b>consequences of getting a positive PCR test result</b></a><b>. </b>The notification of the result was received without statement of the variant. But it is important to know whether the infection is Omicron, or some other variant such as Delta. That is because:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Someone who has not had Omicron can be easily infected by it, as <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232698/modelling-suggests-rapid-spread-omicron-england/" target="_blank"><b>it can easily bypass vaccines (including a booster) and prior infection from another variant.</b></a> Although vaccines make infection from Omicron less serious, best to stay vigilant and cautious to prevent an Omicron infection<br /></li><li>Someone fully vaccinated who has had Omicron is very unlikely to be re-infected by Omicron or by one of the other variants, or at least not be seriously ill. As near to 'Freedom' as is feasible - at least until another Variant of Concern' comes along.<br /></li></ul><p>So how do we find out which variant?</p><p><b>TESTING METHODS</b></p><p>The current PCR testing looks for specific fragments of the virus, which all variants exhibit. So PCR tests cannot currently identify and distinguish specific variants. <a href="https://www.abdn.ac.uk/news/15066/" target="_blank"><b>New testing such as this</b></a> makes testing more accurate, to more reliably spot new variants, but also cannot identify which variant is present. </p><p>In a fast-moving field, there are at least three ways to specifically identify Omicron:</p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Whole genome sequencing</b> (WGS), following a
positive PCR test result. This process can take a few days, which is obviously not ideal</li><li> <a href="https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2021/12/08/investigating-omicron-what-ukhsa-is-doing-now/" target="_blank"><b>S gene target failure</b></a>: The Omicron variant of the virus has a number of mutations which mean
that the S gene does not show up in PCR results. This is referred to as 'S
gene dropout' or 'S gene target failure' and it can be used as marker for
this variant pending the WGS results.</li><li><a href="https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/new-pcr-test-developed-jrc-can-detect-omicron-variant-latest-testing-eu-scientists-confirms" target="_blank"><b>New tests such as this one</b></a> published last week, which can be rolled out to all test centres <br /></li></ol><div><p>In the meantime WGS and S gene target failure are only being carried out at some test centres in the UK. The results are only used for a better understanding of community prevalence of Omicron and other variants. Not notified to individuals<br /></p><p><b>SO HOW CAN WE TELL IF WE'VE HAD OMICRON?</b><br /></p><p>There is currently no sure-fire way to tell if you have had Omicron. But we can get a strong inkling of likelihood by a combination of:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Known incidence in the local area, when such statistics are available, and <br /></li><li>The type of symptoms experienced</li></ul><p><b>Known Incidence</b> <br /></p><p>Oxfordshire, for example, has a <a href="https://phdashboard.oxfordshire.gov.uk/?view=cases&location=Oxford" target="_blank"><b>Dashboard of COVID-19 statistics</b></a>. This doesn't yet indicate the levels of each variant. But after several months at around the same rate with Delta, the number of cases is now rising steeply. Almost certainly dominated by Omicron, with Delta still in the mix, perhaps in ratio 2:1 and increasing:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxDBDssTDJQAxNuvQXZVHT9BZ5ePWeXJUeECMAzb0BthySLLBKRnemEA6BCNbToMjEo__846wGOWj0cNZgyXLeQ2QH_pmkWLjrjGVrUIyGFMDQpc14qd2CGp4O6L2Cfa7i-aEx69ASWAtCLAW7EuluLAJqTVjgKbg9qCCszx3MtP_r2xIBIghW6Ogxog=s529" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="529" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxDBDssTDJQAxNuvQXZVHT9BZ5ePWeXJUeECMAzb0BthySLLBKRnemEA6BCNbToMjEo__846wGOWj0cNZgyXLeQ2QH_pmkWLjrjGVrUIyGFMDQpc14qd2CGp4O6L2Cfa7i-aEx69ASWAtCLAW7EuluLAJqTVjgKbg9qCCszx3MtP_r2xIBIghW6Ogxog=s320" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>Symptoms</b></p><p><span style="font-size: small;">It is possible to be infected by any variant and have little or no symptoms. But if symptoms are strong, the top three are different between Omicron and the others:</span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;">Delta and earlier variants:</span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;">Continuous cough <br /></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;">Loss of taste and smell</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;">High temperature <br /></span></li></ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/coronavirus-omicron-variant-symptoms-vs-delta-variant-four-symptoms-of-omicron-that-are-different-from-delta/photostory/88493946.cms" target="_blank"><b>Omicron</b></a>: </span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;"> Like a common cold (like some other Coronaviruses)</span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;">Sore throat</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;">Runny nose</span></li></ul><li><span style="font-size: small;">Different</span></li><ul><li><span style="font-size: small;">Headache</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;">Fatigue </span><br /></li></ul></ul></ul><p><b></b></p><p>STOP PRESS Update 28/12/21:<b> </b> It is now being reported<b> </b>that <b>"</b><i><b>The first sign and symptom of Omicron could present itself in your voice, meaning you need to keep an ear out for any changes. </b><b>This is because <a href="https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/very-first-omicron-symptom-arrives-22579260" target="_blank">Omicron has been linked with a hoarse or scratchy voice</a>, after causing havoc in your throat. </b></i><b><i><b><b>You could HEAR the very first warning sign of Omicron before you feel ill</b></b></i>"</b></p><br /><p><b>MY OWN ASSESSMENT</b><br /></p><p>In terms of symptoms:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Tickly sore throat, not requiring any treatment, rather than a continuous cough. Plus a scratchy voice<br /></li><li>Mild fatigue for a couple of days. Not like flu where it is difficult to get out of bed</li><li>No change to taste and smell</li><li>No high temperature</li></ul><p>In terms of local <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">prevalence</span>, it looks more likely to be Omicron than Delta. Adding in the symptoms, and it's looking like a 99%+ chance of Omicron. </p><p></p>Indeed this new symptom of a scratchy voice started for me the day before the positive tests, on 25th before 26th tests. That would allow me to exit isolation a day earlier,<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection" target="_blank"><b> provided I can comply with the 7-day regulations</b></a>. Based on the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection" target="_blank"><b>NHS advice published 24 December</b></a>:<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifDrG8vMyaOc3SwcklXu5p3eBnIJlbnQyE1BHAIaxJSH1Jifvwi-kpLWeT5iDNL7TjBGJYf8jSH4MsA4GvoCPTzsD5TpkLFG-2-xFKmFoWmZmRToO-RV4ZwmzLvSVNHQ9rnS1Uny2Ec1-AuV3fChC6N3DKGhR9NwipDsX5cY06d3OBCNeFZediVaWVtw=s735" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="149" data-original-width="735" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifDrG8vMyaOc3SwcklXu5p3eBnIJlbnQyE1BHAIaxJSH1Jifvwi-kpLWeT5iDNL7TjBGJYf8jSH4MsA4GvoCPTzsD5TpkLFG-2-xFKmFoWmZmRToO-RV4ZwmzLvSVNHQ9rnS1Uny2Ec1-AuV3fChC6N3DKGhR9NwipDsX5cY06d3OBCNeFZediVaWVtw=w400-h81" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>Tweaked to suit the actual dates<i><b>:</b></i></p><p><i><b>'This means that if, for example, your symptoms started at any time on
the 25th of December (even if your first
positive COVID-19 test was taken on the 26th), you may take daily <abbr title="lateral flow device">LFD</abbr> tests from the 31st December. If your <abbr title="lateral flow device">LFD</abbr>
test results are negative on the 31st and 1st, and you do not have a
high temperature, you may end your isolation period after the negative
test result on the 1st of January.</b></i>" Not the second of January had I not noticed that new symptom. <br /></p><p>So under the 7 Days rules you can exit isolation just after 0000hrs on 1st of January, not the 4th as would have been the case with the 10 Days rules. In this case the 25th would have been defined as Day 0, day 10 as 4th January, and isolation exit on 5th. That means 4 days earlier.<br /></p><p></p><p>Armed with this new symptom information, I tried to edit my Test & Trace account to bring the 10-day end date back a day. But "You cannot change information about...your symptoms." WTF! <br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4ydHs1jC38VXHTVVsRFsAexzz2kD3DL2Xs7IXiVCEdpDuw1r4kZubniiQ6aNX845gnOPkmJSLhwYwMdJItGmDaSr0kwNFEqkeNYCXpoJzwudL_KBoJpxaaSD0TmpqM18BGE5U1zs44sMtbSlHTUf0AJVUZdOySy7ej6Ca30W1A11PTN9z_AUcgtxMSA=s1010" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="1010" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4ydHs1jC38VXHTVVsRFsAexzz2kD3DL2Xs7IXiVCEdpDuw1r4kZubniiQ6aNX845gnOPkmJSLhwYwMdJItGmDaSr0kwNFEqkeNYCXpoJzwudL_KBoJpxaaSD0TmpqM18BGE5U1zs44sMtbSlHTUf0AJVUZdOySy7ej6Ca30W1A11PTN9z_AUcgtxMSA=w400-h251" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>I'll have to carry a copy of thsi blogpost with me on 1st, in case I get stopped. Assuming of course that I have two negative LFTs and no high temperature.<br /></p><p>Then it's a matter of how 'free' I can feel going out that soon. OK if I've had Omicron. I reckon there's a 99%+ chance it's Omicron. But it would be good to get a definitive test.<br /></p></div><br />CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-29568931030220237752021-12-27T15:57:00.016+00:002022-01-03T17:59:06.942+00:00COVID-19: THE POSITIVE PCR TEST <p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWNm6TLWbTgbasgGYt2-JEtwAp7Q2z5dT6LkFw1CwHVjUZ3wnSNyy_VoD9GHgOPLVR0yAxklHWaHKIPbYC22oET8cnrs4Eta1-VXpsnGhOxk0R2sjegQ-FRDwVc81KxmLIUBn7dstyRgDRGIXgMELcPt-lwdCH_z0sNQFQlQbBcavshiw42Pu0MSNMGA=s302" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="167" data-original-width="302" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhWNm6TLWbTgbasgGYt2-JEtwAp7Q2z5dT6LkFw1CwHVjUZ3wnSNyy_VoD9GHgOPLVR0yAxklHWaHKIPbYC22oET8cnrs4Eta1-VXpsnGhOxk0R2sjegQ-FRDwVc81KxmLIUBn7dstyRgDRGIXgMELcPt-lwdCH_z0sNQFQlQbBcavshiw42Pu0MSNMGA=w320-h178" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small;">Yesterday I reported that I had a <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19testedpositive" target="_blank"><b>positive Lateral Flow Test</b></a>. This was the first time using that brand, and I had none of the classic symptoms. So I used an LFT test from a different brand that up to then had always given negative results. Again positive. Virtually certain to have COVID-19 infection.<br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Today my PCR result came through by email, 24 hours after the test:</span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span> </span>"<i><b>Test date: 26/12/2021<span> </span>Your
recent coronavirus (COVID-19) test came back positive.</b></i>"</span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So that's definite. I have COVID-19. Despite being double-jabbed and boosted. Though hopefully vaccination will have better prepared my immunity, such that illness will be milder than had I not been vaccinated. So far so good (touches wood!)<br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The SMS text was clearer, especially on self-isolation and other actions to take: </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjvruw8XGdeDB31pyAI1eMlxthvp6oAlCKz01MDlaqseeA4QiHAIZl66iEtPl751Xyk09AZe3WPoU3Rne59Fsqua8tQ6R1wOuUomt1ELeLfcUhuf053MnhDuegXYhe_BRMTMxabFwgU4fQebiOYWCHD-9JAnqIzhc0ZIV7svod67gN8i0GABeUPbHpN6w=s671" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="671" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjvruw8XGdeDB31pyAI1eMlxthvp6oAlCKz01MDlaqseeA4QiHAIZl66iEtPl751Xyk09AZe3WPoU3Rne59Fsqua8tQ6R1wOuUomt1ELeLfcUhuf053MnhDuegXYhe_BRMTMxabFwgU4fQebiOYWCHD-9JAnqIzhc0ZIV7svod67gN8i0GABeUPbHpN6w=w400-h208" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>WHAT ABOUT THE COVID-19 APP?</b></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXFkxJ_9WVHeYl9wDoJAQw1mpcU8MFeKHP9NVJghi-ECSZGdaZZOR5hqNLSKSvtw1kBbSKBmbxtrM2HpeqqyIMTmmLL4fV9aftbRt1JcsjAslTSCHDOk__wJHL4sHxB3HjseGz_dszmgsmZgJkV94yl3nJu7bMo81B1PCTyBFYQLq0mhqIaojIOorykQ=s185" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="166" data-original-width="185" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXFkxJ_9WVHeYl9wDoJAQw1mpcU8MFeKHP9NVJghi-ECSZGdaZZOR5hqNLSKSvtw1kBbSKBmbxtrM2HpeqqyIMTmmLL4fV9aftbRt1JcsjAslTSCHDOk__wJHL4sHxB3HjseGz_dszmgsmZgJkV94yl3nJu7bMo81B1PCTyBFYQLq0mhqIaojIOorykQ=w200-h179" width="200" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: small;">Both the text and email asked for the Covid-19 app to be updated with a code. This is so likely contacts would be notified, and the user would get self-isolation advice. </span><p></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But does anyone use the app now? I never used it, as I had major concerns about the contacts function of the app. The chance of false notifications too high, as:</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(a) No check-out function to identify clearly if two people were actually in the same place at the same time. </span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(b) Inherently able to show proximity despite a physical barriers between the phones, such as a wall<br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Certainly no venues have been asking for sign-in recently. Especially <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19catchit" target="_blank"><b>the venue most likely</b></a> to have been the source of my infection. <br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Per the email:<span> </span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOxmC8pCYRqM6LnVFCs6b9MjirooUYMeCWAP7i9f7DzmQNvLfJMtxDq7RCRVbciXXRU3wZW9IPif4A6EloPRuwECbrFhuzxgo-bhdVdb1L7YgZOxvFz4LynK9PN5ivNQmh_mO7beomBTetcrEIe37dhdO0Z37ONZX-jtwJ4E6VERBBfiIAlHPx3Tm-ug=s669" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="669" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOxmC8pCYRqM6LnVFCs6b9MjirooUYMeCWAP7i9f7DzmQNvLfJMtxDq7RCRVbciXXRU3wZW9IPif4A6EloPRuwECbrFhuzxgo-bhdVdb1L7YgZOxvFz4LynK9PN5ivNQmh_mO7beomBTetcrEIe37dhdO0Z37ONZX-jtwJ4E6VERBBfiIAlHPx3Tm-ug=w400-h199" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Update 28/12/21</b>: I've reluctantly downloaded the app, in the hope for clarity on which day I can exit isolation. Although freshly downloaded, it doesn't mention the<b><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection" target="_blank"> new 7 day rule</a></b>. It's talking 10 days, and confusingly says "You need to self-isolate until 5 Jan 2022 at 2359" and "9 days to go".:</span></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Why doesn't it say "end self-isolation from 6 Jan at 0001"?</span></span></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Then "9 days to go" would make clear sense. With</span></span> 9 days to go on 28/12, then 1 day to go would be on 5 January, with freedom on 6 January </span></span></li></ul><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So does the 7-day rule for people who comply with the conditions mean 'freedom' on 3 January? What if had 'symptoms' the day before testing?</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b> </b>Would that legally be 2 January? I need to know!</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">(As a former Computer Audit Manager for a Big4, the clowns who are responsible for developing and maintaining the app (or those managing them) would not want to see my review! Key components in the app have come from reliable sources, but their use in the app is poor. Well below an acceptable standard.) <br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b></b></span></span></p><div><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>NO SMARTPHONE? </b><br /></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What about for people without a smartphone? No advice. Not good enough!</span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">SYMPTOMS</span></span></b></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So far, touch wood, symptoms have been virtually non-existent. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19variant" target="_blank"><b>None of the classic COVID-19 symptoms </b></a>that would have prompted a PCR test, had there been no </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">positive </span></span>LFT.</span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But there has been one odd symptom, that started on Christmas Day when I was probably just infected. Maybe a coincidence, as there are other possible causes. As those could be serious, I am going to have to consult a doctor if this does not disappear by say a week's time.</span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">CONSEQUENCES OF MY INFECTION</span></span></b></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">So far so good. Touch wood. All being well, I will not become seriously ill, certainly not enough to need hospital admission. But that doesn't mean this infection has been without consequences. Especially if we look at community effects by scaling up the effects for the exceptionally high number of new infections in communities throughout the land. </span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In the next week or so:</span></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If I have to consult a doctor, who might refer me to a specialist, then that is additional strain on the NHS. Resources taken away from handling other health issues</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I was rostered to volunteer at a Food Bank. With other volunteers off ill too this week, staffing this essential service is under strain. I've been watching calls going out for volunteers regularly through the day to keep the service running.</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Employers in other organisations are also struggling with staffing, such as trains and the NHS. Some closing, such as football matches called off due to covid-stricken teams</span></span></li></ul><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Imagine if supermarkets started to shut, due to lack of staff or lack of supply. Not just loo rolls. Nor petrol. But actual food. Wouldn't there be panic? Why is the Government taking the risk? Surely someone has raised this realistic possibility! Maybe the risk is small. But just like insurance, when the consequence is large, the wise take action. No action today in England, it's been announced.<br /></span></span><div><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><p style="color: #0b0c0c; line-height: 25px; margin: 0px 0px 20px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There's then longer term consequences:</span></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">People losing their sense of taste and smell for an extended period</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;">Prolonged exhaustion, common after any major infection</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><i><b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></b></i><span style="font-family: inherit;">Other LongCovid symptoms, that can also keep people off work, and unable to function as normal. Massive consequences to the individuals affected. Also to society if many people are affected, as numbers will be proportional to case rates</span><i><b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></i></span></li></ul><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There is no need for more data. It is abundantly clear that the Government is taking unacceptable risks with our lives and communities. The economy very much at risk in 2022.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The situation is screaming out "<i><b>Action now</b></i>."</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">C<b>ONTACT TRACING</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I have also been asked to complete various details on a web site for contact tracing purposes. Utterly useless.<br /></span></span></p></div></div>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-45211827135473927472021-12-26T20:43:00.004+00:002021-12-28T08:12:55.638+00:00COVID-19: SHIT'S JUST GOT REAL<p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5shHOAZUcWxWdRPBp1UQTlX9R4qYLVKeKPmyk5cJ5DwanAKjW0fFV0iouA7MzXjP1VstPa3h-J8Zue_8L4ZETlZXRWlA4mmMFRZ6gzUs4VBdWxN43FL9DtiXB7gSDJrpu9t5fTcBiL6GzHcnAY-FcWkbkXmVJWqRQRiImL09Jza-mHW4kuPcv2cEjvw=s3329" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2809" data-original-width="3329" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5shHOAZUcWxWdRPBp1UQTlX9R4qYLVKeKPmyk5cJ5DwanAKjW0fFV0iouA7MzXjP1VstPa3h-J8Zue_8L4ZETlZXRWlA4mmMFRZ6gzUs4VBdWxN43FL9DtiXB7gSDJrpu9t5fTcBiL6GzHcnAY-FcWkbkXmVJWqRQRiImL09Jza-mHW4kuPcv2cEjvw=w200-h169" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Testing positive with LFTs<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>Yesterday I went down to the river, wishing Merry Christmas to many of the people I passed. Most returned the wishes. But one man said "Hopefully next year will be better than this year". I added "or last year". To which his response was "And hopefully we've got rid of that clown, Johnson."<p></p><p>That clown has allowed infection rates to rise to silly levels, making infection by Delta or Omicron almost inevitable if you leave your house, such as for essential food shopping. <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>The consequences of infection are broad and potentially severe. Not just potential hospitalisation and death</b></a>, but a whole host of personal and societal issues that could be as bad if not worse. Madness. And now I am caught up with it, having tested positive with two brands of LFTs, as in the photo, and waiting for a PCR result.</p><p><b>SO YOU TOO HAVE TESTED POSITIVE </b><br /></p><p>Shit's just got real, as it will for many of you too. So what does it mean to test positive?:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Self-isolation for at least 7 days, legally unable to leave the house or garden</li><li>Potentially longer, 10 days or even longer</li><li>Worrying myself about serious illness, ongoing lethargy and not wanting to lose my sense of taste and smell. Also worrying about more serious LongCovid symptoms, and whether the virus has been passed to other people who end up having serious symptoms<br /></li></ul><p><a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/how-long-to-self-isolate/" target="_blank"><b>According to the NHS website</b></a>, today 26 December 2021, the self-isolation rules for when tested positive are::</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFx9KazeIwjPkU4irLnAOgXmBNNR_12BoqgGYFRQw187yx97AswRkBFanQEL-6aqfnPkz48Fx3xkgbBKWq6YxByRnMiInd4rXhgcc4Dn9vxzUfQcmGsS31hU47ucg7n7zTuHt5mFzKiAE9IfF-hkuwBrsnNAhxg2gMUn0mWrkRqgLAh_6E4YhlwG0rCQ=s885" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="885" data-original-width="406" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFx9KazeIwjPkU4irLnAOgXmBNNR_12BoqgGYFRQw187yx97AswRkBFanQEL-6aqfnPkz48Fx3xkgbBKWq6YxByRnMiInd4rXhgcc4Dn9vxzUfQcmGsS31hU47ucg7n7zTuHt5mFzKiAE9IfF-hkuwBrsnNAhxg2gMUn0mWrkRqgLAh_6E4YhlwG0rCQ=w294-h640" width="294" /></a></div><p>What isn't explicit in these words, and needs to be tweaked is:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The 10-day count starts the day <u>after </u>a positive test or first symptoms:</li><ul><li>So are days 6 and 7 are on that same basis? Many people will count the day of test/symptoms as day 1, and finish self-isolation a day too early (if day 1 is the day after)</li><li>Indeed do you have to wait until day 8 before going out, 8 days after test/symptoms? From 26 December as day 0, day 8 is 3 January. After New Years Eve. <br /></li></ul><li>Whether to stop taking LFT tests until day6? How about after that?<br /></li></ul><p> <b>THE CONSEQUENCES OF INFECTION</b> <br /></p><p>I'm on annual leave this week, but was supposed to be helping with my local Food Bank. I'm now not available all next week, till the following Monday. If I was working for any other organisation, and had passed on the virus to colleagues before realising I was contagious, it is quite likely that organisation would have to close for lack of staff. For example my local pub has closed for the last two weekends for lack of staff, with New Years Eve "in the balance", even if we are not into actual lockdown. Supermarkets? Other essential services? Imagine! </p><p><b>ACTION REQUIRED</b> <br /></p><p>The Government and media must stop focussing totally on hospitalisations, it seems. <a href=" https://bit.ly/cv19hicaserates" target="_blank"><b>High case rates are madness in any case</b></a>, and the Government should take immediate steps to get rates down. If that means a form of lockdown, then so be it. <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-18953732148110541122021-12-24T17:14:00.004+00:002021-12-26T12:22:00.015+00:00COVID-19: WHY HIGH CASE RATES ARE MADNESS<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9TjV1nDsHrA0pFPx2BtQPoMXgdhQPXfnpENki2CSqQ8eQl5yI_OfmTqvpLKjN3LEYY8nYAWnJ8qA9j_DkX4Uy2jajSeP2Uo_CrGjeTQ8uottTIPx9wB7CNIBGjjS1ZkUf3aISyY50im7aSUZOu6Y8xdXSADjd3eXqTJosjclNtXqq6TnLrjwBtx-ByA=s280" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="280" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9TjV1nDsHrA0pFPx2BtQPoMXgdhQPXfnpENki2CSqQ8eQl5yI_OfmTqvpLKjN3LEYY8nYAWnJ8qA9j_DkX4Uy2jajSeP2Uo_CrGjeTQ8uottTIPx9wB7CNIBGjjS1ZkUf3aISyY50im7aSUZOu6Y8xdXSADjd3eXqTJosjclNtXqq6TnLrjwBtx-ByA=w200-h129" width="200" /></a></div>The Omicron variant is spreading like wildfire. Bypassing the immunity provided by two jabs, and finding the boosters are only around 75% effective. Vaccines much better than nothing, but still not perfect.<br /><p></p><p>Today comes the good news that Omicron is less prone to cause serious disease, requiring hospitalisation. But this is somewhat of a red herring:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Hospitalisation is not the only COVID-19 matter to be concerned about <br /></li><li>Omicron has been spreading mainly amongst younger age groups, so the real world data for the more vulnerable older age groups is not yet available<br /></li><li>A small proportion hospitalised out of a large number infected is still a worryingly large number that could overrun the NHS<br /></li></ul><p><b> OTHER MATTERS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT</b></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>The number of people becoming physically ill means train operators, football teams, the NHS and every other organisation is now short of staff. What if food supply were to be affected? Imagine the panic!</li><li>People are typically ill longer than from flu. Five days at least, and its nasty. Reducing self-isolation from 10 days to 7 days (subject to various constraints) will help. But further growth in infections will still mean major disruption, with some organisations having to close completely<br /></li><li>People can be left exhausted after any major illness. Covid-19 is no exception. Meaning people take longer to get back to work. Further low-staffing consequences<br /></li><li>You don't need to have severe illness to suffer from LongCovid, often serious enough to prevent being able to live life as normal:</li></ol><ul style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><li>Bad news for the individuals affected</li><li>Extra pressure on GPs and specialist services, taking resources away from treating other health conditions</li></ul><p>"<i><b>Health is wealth</b></i>" they say. The only way to live with COVID-19 is to control infection levels, so these troubles do not occur.. That will do less damage to people's health, businesses, the NHS - and the economy.</p><p>The Government missed a trick not doing a 3-week FireBreak lockdown whilst the schools were on holiday. High case rates are madness. Christmas will have cost the nation a fortune.<br /></p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-88106445974441006872021-12-24T16:28:00.003+00:002021-12-24T16:30:04.602+00:00COVID-19: GETTING HOLD OF YOUR LATERAL FLOW TESTS<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpOqgo-mGMEjl-nDzgmz5TSF5L8yWeyqgnpb4XcOjsEsyQdGNhNoodBwGpR7dVWHN2SYTJ9GUU0efY9GE6bVYI5NDGRXncBgWnF462sCSjkUXPc9Xzx_njpqkrVxcXxFddNBlmr4Pz4WZiE1CmgHkhwXANWPLTe-KPP2AnIIdIJkfbWhTV_FtCcYAbGw=s3389" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2525" data-original-width="3389" height="149" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpOqgo-mGMEjl-nDzgmz5TSF5L8yWeyqgnpb4XcOjsEsyQdGNhNoodBwGpR7dVWHN2SYTJ9GUU0efY9GE6bVYI5NDGRXncBgWnF462sCSjkUXPc9Xzx_njpqkrVxcXxFddNBlmr4Pz4WZiE1CmgHkhwXANWPLTe-KPP2AnIIdIJkfbWhTV_FtCcYAbGw=w200-h149" width="200" /></a></div>Lateral Flow Tests (LFTs) are not perfect but <a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicronlfts" target="_blank"><b>they are better than nothing</b></a>:<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The tests identify Omicron as well as Delta, as the test are looking for portions of the virus that are identical, not affected by the new Omicron mutations</li><li>But suffer from the same issue for Omicron as for Delta, which is that the tests do not detect lower viral loads, as is the case in the early stages of infection</li><li>As Omicron grows very quickly in the early stages of infection the advice is:</li><ul><li>Take a test just before meeting people, potentially on the doorstep</li><li>If you've done another test earlier in the day, do a second one at least , <br /></li></ul></ul><p>So how do you get a kit? In the UK, test kits are given out free by the NHS in boxes of 7, which is ordinarily for a week if you are having to take daily tests.</p><p>There are <a href="https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests" target="_blank"><b>two ways you can order on-line</b></a>:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Order for delivery to any UK address, not necessarily home. Delivery within 3 days, proven<br /></li><li>Get a "Collect Code" to collect from a pharmacist or other collection point</li></ul><p>Given that pharmacists have typically been out of stock, and delivery might be unreliable, the system does let you order both.</p><p>Bear in mind the NHS advice:</p><p>"<i><b>Do not use a rapid lateral flow test if you have COVID-19 symptoms. Get a PCR test as soon as possible and self-isolate, even if symptoms are mild.</b></i>"<br /> </p><p><br /></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7785275155140118316.post-77600224824196127052021-12-22T09:26:00.003+00:002021-12-22T09:32:58.935+00:00COVID-19: EVERYTHING ABOUT OMICRON part 2<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19danger" target="_blank"><b></b></a></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWEw1i9ovGjRu-EYLqknT_zb2fubrsoP2LTjoW5ZrAh98Nsx9rWzbkq_kichMohaViBL885snT5sov4Sij4AE8QP2UEtagGkq3Qh3IFc7eYL7HKBuMZa3w2J8J3d57AW-k0AFKl8phPM3THwAPTxtis5RlUUk54KY5qGLJLUlopNwLd1AwxRmY8FWnOw=s275" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWEw1i9ovGjRu-EYLqknT_zb2fubrsoP2LTjoW5ZrAh98Nsx9rWzbkq_kichMohaViBL885snT5sov4Sij4AE8QP2UEtagGkq3Qh3IFc7eYL7HKBuMZa3w2J8J3d57AW-k0AFKl8phPM3THwAPTxtis5RlUUk54KY5qGLJLUlopNwLd1AwxRmY8FWnOw=w200-h133" width="200" /></a></b></div><p>Key blogposts just published<b>:<br /></b></p><p><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19danger" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: FOOD SUPPLY. THE REAL DANGER OF OMICRON</b></a><br />Not just hospitalisations<br /><br />"It's a blinder of a blog post." Retired company director:<br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19omicronlfts" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: HOW GOOD ARE LATERAL FLOW TESTS WITH OMICRON? (Updated)</b></a><br />Telling it like it is. What impact on Government policy?<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19family" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: TIPS FOR YOUR FAMILY GATHERING</b></a><br />A useful checklist<br /><br /><a href="https://bit.ly/cv19positive" target="_blank"><b>COVID-19: SO YOU OR SOMEONE IN YOUR HOUSEHOLD HAS TESTED POSITIVE</b></a><br />What you should do<br /><br /></p><p></p>CovidCourierhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01285550236292802092noreply@blogger.com0