There are two fundamental issues:
- What is the strategy?
- How quickly can restrictions be eased, and what are the key factors?
STRATEGIC OPTIONS
Here is the BBC's assessment of the strategic options, given a comparison of COVID-19 with other viral diseases:
Why goal is to live with the virus - not fight it
I have previously advocated a #NearZero strategy, no more than 1000 new infections a day in the UK. That would be supported by border controls and dealing toughly with any outbreaks. The idea would be to get back to near- normality whilst indeed 'living with the virus'.
FACTORS TO CONSIDER
But whatever the strategy chosen, what factors need to be considered in determining how quickly restrictions can be eased?
In the previous blogpost, the key factors highlighted were:
- As previously suggested by the UK Government:
- "Number of deaths coming down"
- "Pressure on NHS reducing"
- "Vaccination programme working", seeing efficacy of vaccines in actuality
- "No new variant" or other factor
- There's an additional key factor suggesting caution:
- LongCOVID, which can affect both hospitalised and many not hospitalised. Larger numbers of people than die, of all ages inluding children, often suffering for many months. That will be put an enormous strain on the NHS unless infection rates come right down.
- Conversely, key factors suggesting early easings include:
- Financial pressure on individuals and firms
- A significant
hit to the Exchequer through a drop in taxes, plus higher public
expenditure for health measures and financial support
- Individuals' loneliness and lack of social interaction
- Restrictions on entertainments, holidays and other enjoyable activities
- Severe disruption to education, and the impact that has on parents
Easing restrictions is very much a balancing act. Too soon and the risk is the virus will let rip again. Hence the need to perhaps err more on the side of caution in 2021 than was the case in 2020. We all await the Government's 'Road Map' with bated breath.
