COVID-19: LOCKDOWN OR FIREBREAK?

Re-opening potential

France and Germany have just announced national lockdowns, both open-ended, to avoid their health services being overrun:

• France will be closing non-essential businesses from tomorrow, Friday, though schools and factories will remain open.  People cannot leave home unless 'essential'
• Germany's measures start next Tuesday 2 November, tough but lighter than France
  

England is still under the national lockdown started on 23 March, with some sectors of the economy such as music and theatre still closed.  The whole country is on at least the "Medium" level of restrictions including the 'rule of 6' and the 10pm curfew for bars and restaurants.  Plus extra regional restrictions that have reduced but not yet reversed the increasing rate.

Wales on the other hand have started what they call a FireBreak for a time-limited period of 17 days.  That includes half term when schools are closed, and then only allowing pre-teen years to return.

 

THE IDEA OF A FIREBREAK

People display symptoms typically around 5 days from infection, but the vast majority up to 14 days.  If anyone displaying symptoms continues to self-isolate, a national 14-day mass self-isolation would virtually eliminate the virus.

Just add a bit of time for anyone infectious to infect other members of their household, for a total of 17 days or preferably a full three weeks, and infections would be down to low or very low levels.

Whilst adopting controls on people and items coming into the country, and pouncing on any outbreaks.

Letting most if not all the economy re-open:

Best for FireBreak to be whole of British Isles, preferably with island of Ireland.

 

KEEPING INFECTIONS LOW

There's one thing getting infections down to low or very lwo levels, there is something else keeping them low:

• Control on people and items (especially chilled items) coming in from abroad. 
  
• Pouncing on outbreaks, including by testing everybody so anyone infected self-isolates
• Continuing basic precautions, such as social distancing
• Use of improved rapid testing at entertainment and sports venues, and at ports and airports
  

Test and Trace has a role, but it will never be good enough to replace such measures.

The sum total of these measures will never be enough to stop infections rising, but the lower the starting point, the longer that will take.

Vaccines will help, but mass vaccination is still months away.  We need to do something in the meantime.

CYCLICAL LOCKDOWNS AND FIREBREAKS

It is clear from France and Germany that lockdowns will need to be cyclical.  Wales reckons their Firebreak will last until January or February, implying a cyclical series of Firebreaks.

The lower infections get, the longer the period between extreme restrictions.  Hence the idea of an Enhanced Firebreak, based on 'vital' not just 'essential', here compared against the Welsh approach and the existing three tiers in place in England:

 

The UK Government announced through Robert Jenrick on Radio4 this morning that they want to continue their 'too little too late' strategy, continuing  with regional restrictions.  But that costs the economy more than taking decisive FireBreak action.

The sooner a FireBreak is done, the sooner the benefits for lives, livelihoods and the economy.

THE ENHANCED FIREBREAK

The tougher the FireBreak restrictions, the lower the infection level achieved and the longer it would take before the next would be needed.  Here's a comparison to Wales:

SCHOOLS AND HIGHER EDUCATION

Education is important.  Clearly.  But currently education at all levels is being severely disrupted.  Schools closed or sending kids home. 

That has a negative knock-on effect on child-care and parents who cannot work as normal.  Universities in chaos too.  Better to have a planned closure for a short period that then lets schools re-open with only a very low risk of being disrupted.

Indeed renewed disruption at schools would be an indicator as to when another FireBreak would be needed.

 

FINANCIAL SUPPORT

Financial support from the Government for businesses, organisation and individuals is essential during a Firebreak.  

Given the way the economy and activities can re-open, that investment will pay back quickly in higher tax receipts, and reduced costs for support and social security.

FireBreaks are better for the Treasury.  Sooner the better.

 

STICK OR CARROT?

Currently there are severe fines for individuals and businesses flouting the regulations.  But if we are going to bear with cyclical FireBreaks, people need to be convinced that they are for their benefit, with the economy and activities they enjoy re-opening.  

The more restrictions can be made voluntary, with the carrot of resulting such improvements, the better.   Leaving fines for those that deliberately undermine the strategy.

IN CONCLUSION

The sooner England adopts a FireBreak the better for lives, livelihoods and the economy.  An Enhanced Firebreak would be even better, producing a very low level of infections and longer period between FireBreaks.

Update 31/10/20:  Thoughts on the English National Lockdown just announced

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

I'm able to take a 360 degree view of the COVID-19 situation having a background in science, business processes, finance and much else besides:

• For the last 40 years I have been solving problems and implementing solutions for Board level personnel in FTSE, AIM, private and start-up businesses.  Plus the UK subsidiaries of multinationals such as Sony and Alcatel, including doubling profits of their UK business

• That work is leveraging technical, financial, systems, commercial and people expertise and understanding. Often for biotech and other hi-tech businesses.

• This is based on being:
• Achiever of top Oxbridge degree in sciences, including cells, genetics, chemistry and spectroscopy
  
• The Thames Valley overall first prizewinner in final ICAEW examinations, covering all the various financial and management subjects
  
• Member of Institute of Management Consultants

The tough problems require taking a 360 degree view of the situation, and all the available evidence, before proposing a solution.  I only ever propose a solution that I would be happy to implement.

In that sense, how best to tackle COVID-19 is just another problem.  Not as tricky as some I have solved, which had stumped other CAs or the directors thought the problem was insoluble.

That's not to say how best to tackle COVID-19 is easy.  There is no painless  solution.  But balancing lives, livelihoods and the economy to allow education, the health system and business to flourish, whilst minimising the net cost to the Treasury, does have a far better solution than the UK government has followed, as outlined above.