COVID-19: LET'S DANCE! RE-OPENING THE ECONOMY

Rockin' in Rothesay

Hospitalisations rising.  A silly number of schools closed, disrupting parents and their work.  Music, theatre and sports closed to the public.   Even the scientists don't believe the top tier restrictions will work, and are worried lower tier places will simply rise up the restrictions ladder.  The result of the 'Too Little Too Late' strategy the Government keeps following.

There is an alternative.  Get the infection rate down to #NearZero and most if not all the economy can re-open.  Music venues open, theatres open, and fans allowed back into stadiums.  With sensible precautions.  

Even nightclubs, the industry believes.  We can dream of dancing!

THE ALTERNATIVE STRATEGY

A #NearZero super-suppression strategy is the answer, with two key aspects:

• Getting infections down to #NearZero
• Keeping infections down

Infections can be kept down by appropriate control on people and products coming in from outside the country, and pouncing on any outbreaks.  Such measures wouldn't be perfect, but the lower the infection rate in an area, the longer it would take for the rate to rise such that restrictions have to be re-imposed.

The challenge, though.  How to get infections down to #NearZero?

 

GETTING INFECTIONS DOWN TO #NEARZERO

The answer is a Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation.  The logic is this:

• If someone self-isolates with COVID-19, they will show symptoms within about 14 days
• Do that with their household, be it with a family or a housemates, and other members of the household could get infected.  So we need to allow a little longer, say 21 days of self-isolation for other people to show symptoms
  
• Anyone displaying symptoms would continue to self-isolate in accordance with Government guidance.

Not everybody can self-isolate easily.  Some businesses and activities are vital, and so some people need to carry on working.  But if as many people as possible were to voluntarily self-isolate for 21 days then the infection rate would plummet.  That means closing all non-vital businesses.  A short and sharp 'Enhanced FireBreak'.  Here's the comparison with the Welsh FireBreak, just announced.

The good thing about a Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation is that in a perfect world it doesn't matter how high the infection rate starts, the rate would drop to virtually zero after 21 days.  In the real world it won't be quite so good, but #NearZero would still be expected.

It is also important that as much as possible of any restrictions become voluntary, as we will have to live with the SARS-COV-2 virus for the foreseeable future, even wth a vaccine. Sir Patrick Vallance said this week that next Spring is his expectation for a vaccine, but even this isn't guaranteed.

 

FINANCIAL SUPPORT

Financial support from Government is vital.  But as that would only be required for three weeks, that would cost the taxpayer far less than a lockdown like earlier in the year.  

The Government would also benefit from the economy re-opening, with higher VAT and income tax receipts and a lower Social Security bill.  A No-Brainer for the Treasury and Rishi Sunak, with the National Debt an increasing problem.

DO IT NOW

Schools would need to close, mainly because of the adults involved.  With many schools breaking for half-term this weekend, the obvious thing to do is to kick off the Enhanced FireBreak to coincide.  So let's do it now.  

Doing so now would also reduce the infection rate and its nasty consequences sooner.

KEEPING IT GOING

The Welsh FireBreak is expected to remove the need for further restrictions until after Christmas.  So a sharper Enhanced FireBreak should allow infections to stay down for at least three months, which would last until the February half-term.  Then the May half-term.  By which time we'll know about vaccines.

On an indicative basis, the Enhanced FireBreak by comparison to the Welsh Firebreak and the three-tier system would allow us to live like this.  With most if not all of the economy open:

THE POLITICAL ANGLE

The Enhanced FireBreak as part of a #NearZero strategy is a technical solution.  But we have to recognise that the decisions are taken by politicians, and so there is a key political angle to consider.

 PM Johnson has three relevant political problems:

• He doesn't want to be held responsible for cancelling Christmas
• He doesn't want to be held responsible for further deaths and LongCOVID
• He doesn't want to simply follow Labour's call for a Circuit Breaker, or follow Wales with a similar FireBreak

An Enhanced FireBreak would address all three problems, allowing him to leapfrog Labour. 

Let's do it.  An Enhanced FireBreak.  Now.