CV-19: CIRCUIT BREAKER versus FIRE BREAK

This evening Sir Keir Starmer, Labour leader, has asked PM Johnson and the Government to follow the advice of SAGE and organise a "Circuit Breaker".

Sir Keir highlighted that most of the parts of the country that have had special measures are still experiencing rising infections.  His concern, quite rightly, is that the new three-tier system is also inadequate given the SAGE advice.

A "Circuit Breaker" would be a 2-3 week repeat of the first lockdown, with similar restrictions.

But is this enough?  It was suggested back on 21 September when infections were far lower. 

The problem is that 2-3 weeks of that level of restrictions won't produce much of a reduction in infections. Here is the graph from the first lockdown, with a five sixths reduction in the first three weeks:

We need to keep a break to 2-3 weeks, absolutely no longer.  But losing 5/6ths from "new confirmed cases" of now some 15,000 a day, and still rising, would get daily infections down to no lower than 2,500 a day.  It needs to be down well below 1,000, which was where we were in the summer.  That means tougher restrictions that is called a "Fire Break".

"Vital" only, not "essential".

The main distinction with "vital" would be to close as much of society as possible.  Could we close all shops including supermarkets?  People would need to stock up with food, medicines and other essentials.  As they should be doing in case they are contacted to self-isolate.

In other words carry out a "mass simultaneous self-isolation".

Lots of difficult 'dark orange' issues, discussed here.  But given my experience of business process engineering, I don't believe there is a red-flag showstopper.  

We're in a war against an invisible enemy.  We need to think the unthinkable to beat it.  If there's a will there's a way.

We could start a "Circuit Breaker" this coming weekend, and cut it down to a 2-week "Fire Break" a week or so later. That would give everyone enough notice.

Further details and justification is here.

Everyone would need financial support.  But once the Fire Break was over, most if not all the economy could reopen and reimburse the Government with VAT and PAYE receipts.

Better for lives.  Better for livelihoods.  Better for the Treasury.

Saving Christmas too.