COVID-19: LET'S MAKE IT VOLUNTARY

There's the old joke.  How do you spell it?  I T of course.  Or in this case MSSI - a Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation.  Adding a V for Voluntary.  A VMSSI.

Let's look at the basics.  There are two reasons to have a "Circuit Break", as SAGE advised back on 21 September:

• Get infection rates down to more manageable levels, especially to avoid the NHS being overrun
• Get infection rates down lower than that, to very low levels, so most if not all of the economy can re-open

Do the latter and we don't have to make a choice between health and the economy, we get both. 

Back in mid-September when SAGE were developing their report, a Circuit Breaker similar to the first lockdown but with schools and universities open would probably have got us down to low rates, like in the summer.  But probably not to very low rates to re-open the economy by removing most if not all business restrictions.

Over three weeks after that report, with infection rates significantly higher, a basic Circuit Breaker simply won't be enough to have any positive economic impact.

We would need to have a Fire Break where we all self-isolate together to get infections as far down as possible in two to three weeks.  I floated the idea for debate at the end of September, with various follow-ups, and am grateful to every person who contributed.  Some in support of the idea, some with concerns.  My conclusion is that MSSI would fly, but only with a V.

 

THE SELF-ISOLATION PRINCIPLE

Currently, if we are contacted by Test and Trace we can be told to self-isolate for 14 days.  This is because the vast majority of infected people will have developed symptoms by 14 days, at most 17.  If they do develop symptoms, then they may need to continue self-isolation, dependent on current advice.  If they don't develop symptoms they can get back to life.

In theory then, if we were to all self-isolate individually and simultaneously, by 2-3 weeks the virus would have been eliminated.  We'd still have to control import of the virus via people or goods, but the whole economy could re-open.  Life back to normal, with many benefits to lives, life and livelihoods:

But we live in households, either with family or flatmates.  Transmission within the household should happen within the first week, so 3 weeks should be enough for elimination.

A total simultaneous self-isolation like this for 3 weeks would let us get to normal, with the economy fully open.   But total isn't possible.  There are some vital activities that cannot shut down - residential facilities such as hospitals, care homes and prisons, and industries like steel furnaces that can't sensibly shut down.

"Vital" would have a tighter definition than "essential".  Schools closed for those 2-3 weeks, and universities working online only.  Possibly closing supermarkets, so people live off their stocks of food in their freezers and cupboards.

 

BEING PRAGMATIC

It is clear that closing food retailing and food supply chains would be difficult, and only with some time for preparation.

So a "vital" Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation wouldn't be feasible this side of Christmas 2020.  

But if we want to save Christmas, we've got to do something.

COMMUNITY SPIRIT

A polls is showing that more than two thirds of people would support a Circuit Breaker lockdown.  It then struck me that people have been bemoaning the loss of community spirit since the Thursday evening claps for the NHS.

So let's do a Fire Break based on a Circuit Breaker, but with schools closed and people encouraged to self-isolate if they can.  A Voluntary Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation.  VMSSI.

Not an enforced curfew. But a Fire Break that is as close to it as possible, on a voluntary basis.  Community spirit.  Shame those who flaunt it, supported by the minimum of vital fines.

It then struck me that food banks are based on the age-old principle of the Harvest Festival, except all year round.  Non-perishable foods in cans and packets piled high in church halls.  Let's do that again.  Those people who can survive two to three weeks without buying food helping those who can't, with cans.  [LOL - Ed]

 

TIMESCALES

The infection rates around the country are still rising.  Professor Chris Whitty doesn't believe the toughest tier restrictions will work.  Bolton has effectively been under tier 3 restrictions for weeks, and the restrictions haven't worked.  So we can't wait to see them fail again. 

Schools across England break up for half term this weekend or next.  Let's start a Fire Break this weekend, with legal restrictions as per the first lockdown.  But with people encouraged to self-isolate.  A VMSSI.

A Fire Break will also need financial support from the Government.  But getting the economy running after the Fire Break will pay back the investment very quickly.

That's it.  Save Christmas.  Defeat the virus.  All pull together.  Open the economy.  It is spelt VMSSI.