COVID-19: HEALTH MEANS WEALTH. ENHANCING THE FIREBREAK

The problem with a standard lockdown is the damage it would typically cause - economic, educational and living.  Indeed the lockdown that started in March in England has suffered from all those unwelcome 'side-effects'.  Furthermore music, theatre, sports and other mass events are yet to re-open.   A second lockdown of similar ilk would suffer from those same drawbacks.

But what if you could do a shorter, sharper lockdown that provided more benefits, such as allowing most if not all of the economy to re-open, whilst keeping the side-effects to a minimum?   To improve both health and wealth.

I woke up one morning back in late September with an idea for a Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation that would virtually eliminate the virus from the British Isles if as many people as possible could self-isolate for two to three weeks.  Allowing most if not all the economy to re-open, including mass entertainment.  That has developed into what I am calling an Enhanced FireBreak (EFB), where self-isolation is voluntary, not enforced by legislation.  

A 'hard reboot' for the country.

 

THE WELSH FIREBREAK

So it was with some sense of deja vu that today I watched the Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford announce a FireBreak for Wales, to start this coming Friday.  He was using much of the same terminology and concepts, such as "short and sharp".  

But the question is how effective would the Welsh FireBreak be?  Not as effective as a sharper Enhanced Firebreak which would preferably be slightly longer.  

 

ENHANCING A FIREBREAK

The objective of a FireBreak is to eliminate the virus.  This is by everyone self-isolating so anyone infectious self-isolates until they are no longer infectious.  But as it takes some days for symptoms to develop, that has to be at least two weeks from onset of the FireBreak. Plus some time in case they infect their household, be it family or housemates.  A total of about three weeks.  Then everyone who has caught the disease stays self-isolated until they could no longer be infectious.  

Self-isolation would need to be voluntary, with an overnight curfew an option.

The more of the country's activities can be closed, the more effective a FireBreak can be.  The lower the infection rate achieved, the more of the economy can be re-opened, and the longer it would take before the inevitable outbreaks mean another FireBreak is required.

There are two ways a standard Circuit Breaker or FireBreak can be enhanced:

• When a Circuit Break or FireBreak is announced, people could voluntarily enhance it by self-isolating.  That can happen in Wales and if a Circuit Breaker or FireBreak were to happen anywhere else such as in England.

• An Enhanced FireBreak should also involve a tighter programme of shutdowns.  A somewhat larger investment, but for far more significant benefits.  

Any shutdown needs to be accompanied by financial support from the Government.  The idea being the greater recovery in the economy will pay back the investment handsomely.

In summary, the differences to a standard FireBreak like announced for Wales would be:

The three-tier system of restrictions in England is far too complicated.  Neither the British Medical Association nor Professor Chris Whitty, The Chief Medical Advisor, believe the restrictions are effective. 

Here's how an Enhanced FireBreak would fit into a strategy for the coming months until a vaccine is available.  Sir Patrick Vallance, Chef Scientific Advisor, told the National Security Strategy Committee this week (19 October) that he thought it "unlikely" that a COVID-19 vaccine would be available for "any sort of widespread community use" before at least spring next year.

 

ACTION NOW

So England should now quickly follow Wales into announcing a FireBreak for this coming weekend, corresponding to Half Term for many schools. But preferably make it sharper, as an Enhanced FireBreak.  A 'hard reboot' for the country.