COVID-19: OPTIMISING THE LOCKDOWN

Carrot or stick?

A likely national lockdown is now dominating the news headlines in England.  PM Johnson is holding a press conference later this afternoon.  Announcing a national lockdown?

There are two objectives from a lockdown:

1. Reduce infections so the health service doesn't get overrun
2. Reduce infections more, to a very low level, so the economy can re-open and life can get back to near-normal

All the talk is on doing the first.  Rather than look to achieve the second, talk is of "The economy cannot bear another lockdown".   

This is fundamentally the mistake the UK government has made throughout this COVID-19 crisis.  Thinking the economy and education are best served if infection levels are left at a low or medium level, with a strategy best described as 'doing too little too late'. Deaths and LongCOVID higher too.

Alternatively, when infections are at a very low level, #NearZero , most if not everything can re-open.  That depends on how low the infection level goes, and what venue testing techniques and general mitigation measures can be put in place.  That includes border restrictions on people and risky goods.

We've seen schools and universities being severely disrupted, with schools sent home and students being deprived of the social side of their education.  We've also seen the Arts and Sports sectors being unable to re-open since March, with the hospitality sector also on its knees.  This cannot continue.

So what's the best approach for lives, livelihoods and the economy?

MY PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE

Before discussing the proposed solution to this COVID-19 problem, it's worth explaining where I am coming from:

• For the last 40 years I have been solving problems and implementing solutions for Board level personnel in FTSE, AIM, private and start-up businesses.  Plus the UK subsidiaries of multinationals such as Sony and Alcatel, including doubling profits of their UK business
  
• That work is leveraging technical, financial, systems, commercial and people expertise and understanding. Often for biotech and other hi-tech businesses.
  
• This is based on being:
• Achiever of top Oxbridge degree in sciences, including cells, genetics, chemistry and spectroscopy
  
• The Thames Valley overall first prizewinner in final ICAEW examinations, covering all the various financial and management subjects
  
• Member of Institute of Management Consultants

The tough problems require taking a 360 degree view of the situation, and all the available evidence, before proposing a solution.  I only ever propose a solution that I would be happy to implement.

In that sense, how best to tackle COVID-19 is just another problem.  Not as tricky as some I have solved, where others had failed or the management thought the problem was insoluble.

That's not to say how best to tackle COVID-19 is easy.  There is no painless  solution.  But balancing lives, livelihoods and the economy to allow education, the health system and business to flourish, whilst minimising the net cost to the Treasury, does have a far better solution than the UK government has followed.

In tackling COVID-19, relevant experience includes:

• A lot of my work on developing business strategy, systems strategy and financial forecasting requires taking a 5 or 10 year view of the future
• In implementing solutions, it is far easier if there is a positive in it for the individuals involved. Some will see the 'greater good' to the organisation, or in this case the country.  But many won't.  'What's in it for me?'
  

In these respects:

• It was clear back in February that COVID-19 was so infectious, it would be with us somewhere in the world for the foreseeable future.  Always the risk of re-infection from abroad, as New Zealand has found.
• It is not surprising that the tier system hasn't worked, being open-ended, with no criteria for releasing restrictions, and anyone under 45 thinking that they are not at risk of death.  Many won't have heard of LongCOVID, as the government never mentions those nasties, nor the other risks

 

TAKING A MEDIUM TERM VIEW

If final stages of vaccine testing go well, a vaccine for COVID-19 should be available in Spring / Summer 2021.   Testing techniques are getting faster and cheaper, though mainly still not as fast and cheap as would be ideal for screening entry in ports and venues.

In the meantime Medium Term we need a strategy that achieves those two key objectives at the start of this blogpost, by getting infection rates across the country down to #NearZero. and then keeping them low.  Not just this side of Christmas, although the short term is obviously important.

The likelihood is that until a vaccine is in widespread use there will be the need for periodic lockdowns.

The question is what form should those lockdowns take, and how often in between?  I have separately suggested and justified a 17-21 day fixed length FireBreak. much like currently adopted by Wales but based on 'vital' rather than merely 'essential'.  Indicatively:

The fundamental basis of the Enhanced FireBreak type of lockdown is to be a Mass Self-Isolation, so that the virus can be best part eliminated, almost regardless of the level of infection at the start.  But that means as sharp as possible:

• Definite end date, not "at least" as being done in France.  People need the carrot of exit at a fixed point in time
  
• All but 'vital' businesses and activities closed
• People encouraged to stay at home to live off their stores of food, medicines and other essentials, just as they would if self-isolating
• Schools preferably closed for the FireBreak period.  Mainly because of the staff and parents involved.  Though schools would need to be open for children of key workers, like earlier in the year
• Exercise permitted.  Indeed as far as possible people seeing that it is worth them abiding by the rules for what can be opened after the end of the period if they comply
  

Feedback from senior professionals of the Enhanced FireBreak blogpost includes:

• "Great article",
• "Well written! Can't add anything to that"
•  "Interesting and persuasive article"

THE CARROT

For everyone including the anti-lockdown tribe to abide by restrictions, there needs to be a carrot.  Which is this set of benefits of a successful FireBreak:

GEOGRAPHY

Any FireBreak should be conducted for the whole of Great Britain, with or without the island of Ireland.  

Wales has already started its 17-day FireBreak.  England and Scotland should join them as soon as possible.

 

 

 

FINANCIAL SUPPORT

Full support during the FireBreak is needed for businesses, individuals and the self-employed in excess of what currently announced.  Everybody must have the means to comply with restrictions.

The re-opening of the economy will provide payback for the Treasury.  Indeed a FireBreak should be regarded as a financial investment, not just necessary to control the virus.

WILL THE GOVERNMENT DECIDE TO GO DOWN THE ENHANCED FIREBREAK ROUTE?

Unlikely.  They seem hell bent on limiting the restrictions in the mistaken belief this is better for the economy and education.  But let's see.

They might just see the light.