COVID-19: IT'S YOUR CHOICE

Let me give you a choice:

(1) You self-isolate for two weeks, maybe three, after which all the theatres, concerts, pubs and even nightclubs would be open, or

(2) You self-isolate for two weeks, after which everything that is shut down now would still be shut

Which would you choose?

 

WHAT'S THE CASE TODAY?

If you've downloaded and use the NHS COVID-19 app, you have signed up to potentially self-isolate.  The app issues Self-Isolation Alerts.  The alert you receive may be correct, it might be false.  Either way you are expected to follow the instruction to self-isolate for 14 days.

In any case we all may be told by the human contact tracers to self-isolate for 14 days.  That's under the threat of a £1000 fine.  They know who you are.

Presumably you've already made sure you've got a two week supply of food in your cupboards, freezer and fridge.  Plus any medicines you would need, and anything else.  You'll be ready to self-isolate if instructed.

LET'S HAVE THAT QUESTION AGAIN

So you have a choice, this time reversed:

(1) Carry on as we are, with any self-isolation you are compelled to do.  At the end of which infection cases will still be high, your favourite theatre would still be closed, and your own business/employer may be closed

(2) You self-isolate alongside everybody else (a short, sharp Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation), virtually eliminate the virus, and re-open every business. 

Which would you choose?

THE VISION

When the virus is best-part eliminated, #NearZero, businesses can open, children (and teachers) can go back to school safely, students can be unlocked from their digs.  Life back to near-normal.

The economy thriving.  The Chancellor of the Exchequer beaming.

WHAT IF THE VIRUS COMES BACK?

The threat of a resurgence will always be there.  People coming into the country.  Physical items coming into the country.  New Zealand has proved complete elimination is impossible.

To keep any resurgence to a minimum:

• Inbound:
• Testing and quarantine controls over people arriving from abroad, be they British nationals returning or visitors.  Better than we have today.
• Testing and controls over physical items arriving from abroad, especially chilled foods on which the virus can last longer
• Outbreak control:
• Early warning, such as widespread sewerage testing
  
• Local rapid response
• Local restrictions
  
• Regular testing of everyone locally, be they symptomatic or not
  

 

HOW LONG COULD WE KEEP THE ECONOMY FULLY OPEN?

How long could we keep infections down to a very low level, #NearZero, so the whole economy could be kept open?

Three months?  Six months?  Longer?

What if we have to do a Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation (MSSI) again?  Let's say infections had risen such that an MSSI was needed again after three months.  That's two weeks MSSI followed by eleven weeks of the economy being fully open.  Two weeks off, eleven weeks on.  

If this was our quarterly cycle until a better solution was available, would that be such a bad thing?  Better than continuing on as we are?

We won't know unless we try it.

BUT WE COULDN'T POSSIBLY DO THAT!

Do you see the vision?  Businesses open.  Your favourite theatre or concert venue open.

So what is the minimum that would need to stay open during an MSSI?

Could we all get stocked up with food, medicines and such like, so the majority of the supply chain could stop? 

Some things would need to stay open.  There's hospitals, care homes, prisons and individuals needing daily care.  The staff would need to get to work.  The police and other emergency services. Who else? 

A lot to think through.  But quickly.

 

YES WE CAN

If you believe the vision of an open economy is worth attaining, let's consider every issue as a hurdle to be vaulted, not a barrier.

Would you say a short, sharp Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation is worth a try?