COVID-19: LONGCOVID STATISTICS

It's six weeks since we last looked at LongCOVID in detail.  It was apparent that even for people who were not seriously ill enough to be hospitalised there were two types of long-lasting problems in a significant proportion of people contracting COVID-19.  This is for all ages, including children:

1. Significant lethargy and 'brain fade' for a prolonged period, which is common after any serious infection
2. Organ damage such as to heart, liver, kidneys, digestive system and even brain, in addition to the lungs.  This is due to viruses getting into the bloodstream where:

• Microclots are formed, which can damage all organs (and can cause strokes)
• The viruses can directly attack any cells with the ACE2 receptor the virus uses to infect the respiratory tract

In addition, people who have been in hospital often have long-lasting symptoms, such as damaged lungs which leaves them breathless.

These three issues are collectively called LongCOVID, for which there are an increasing number of horrendous stories of young people where their lives have effectively been wrecked.  There's a growing number of support groups, such as LongCovid.org which includes a number of such stories.

STATISTICS

Unlike death certificates, there is no official way of recording the incidence of LongCOVID.  But this week the King's College ZOE app study published an assessment.  

They say "This long-term illness is frustrating and debilitating for those who are affected, with the potential to have a significant impact on wider society."

Whereas most people recover from influenza is just a few days, "most people with COVID-19 reported being back to normal in 11 days or less".  Around a week longer.

"The more different symptoms a person experienced within the first week of illness, the more likely they were to develop long COVID"

They estimate from a sample of app users that without being hospitalised:

• "One in seven (14.5%) of people with symptomatic COVID-19 would be ill for at least 4 weeks
• One in 20 (5.1%) for 8 weeks 
• One in 45 (2.2%) for 12 weeks or more"

These 'morbidity' numbers are all significantly higher than 'mortality' death percentages, which are under 1%, and represent many tens of thousands of people.

On the basis of age and gender:

• Long COVID affects around 10% of 18-49 year olds who become unwell with COVID-19
• Rising to 22% of over 70s
• Although men are more likely to be admitted to hospital with COVID-19, women appear to be slightly more likely to suffer from long COVID than men (14.5% compared with 9.5%), but only in the younger age group.

 "There were no clear links to any ... underlying health conditions", except:

• "People with asthma were more likely to develop long COVID"
• "Weight also plays a role, with people developing long COVID having a slightly higher average BMI"

These statistics are consistent with other studies.  But there now needs to be more detailed studies, ideally linking statistics with deaths, so each group iof people can understand the risks:

• By gender
• In the same age groups as ONS death statistics
  
• Analysed by type of LongCOVID illness
  

It is also clear that the level of infections must be reduced to avoid people suffering from LongCOVID.  That includes youngsters who tend to think they are at little risk from COVID-19.

A key reason why an Enhanced FireBreak is needed as soon as possible.