Then there's schools and universities. Last week some 5% of school pupils were not in education because of COVID-19 outbreaks. Universities have encountered mass outbreaks. We need to get education fully open consistently.
All these things are possible if we can get COVID-19 infections down to #NearZero levels across the country, and then keep them very low.
ENHANCING THE FIREBREAK
If everybody self-isolated for three weeks, the virus would be eliminated. That is a fortnight for individuals, plus a week more for anyone infectious to infect their household.
In the real world some activities are vital, such as hospitals, utilities and steel foundries. But the more complete the self-isolation, the lower the resulting level of infections.
Wales is implementing a three-weekend FireBreak for a total of 17 days starting tomorrow Friday. For England, if this is enhanced it will be far more effective, and get infection rates down to #NearZero:
- As many people as possible self-isolate. That is for people to use their stocks of food, medicines and other essentials so they only need to go out for exercise. Self-isolation would need to be voluntary, for simplicity. The Welsh could do this without further legal provisions
- Optionally, an overnight curfew
- This would need as many businesses and activities as possible closed down for three weeks. Just the vital remaining open.
- Schools closed down too. Many are already affected, with the number increasing.
- Nationwide as even places such as Cornwall have infection rates well above #NearZero levels, last week at 26.2 per hundred thousand
- Financial support for businesses and individuals for this short period.
Imagine then being able to get on with life almost as normal, though continuing with basic precautions:
Even the Treasury would gain, with the economy re-opening improving VAT and income tax receipts, and reducing Social Security payments. Keeping unemployment down.
KEEPING INFECTION LEVELS DOWN
Totally eradication of the virus worldwide is not going to happen anytime soon. We should assume there will be a continuing threat of re-infection from abroad for the foreseeable future.
Vaccines need time for testing of effectiveness and safety, and are not expected to be avilable until Spring 2021 at the earliest per Sir Patrick Vallance, Chief Scientific Adviser.
So we need to adopt a set of preventative measures for months to come.
New, faster testing methods that are being developed will help, at borders and to bear down on any outbreak. The existing testing capacity at #NearZero infection levels will be available to test everyone associated with an outbreak, and at places prone to outbreaks such as abattoirs.
Drugs such as dexamethasone have been shown to be effective in hospitals for severe cases of COVID-19. We need drugs for use at home to relieve symptoms, shorten recovery times and keep people out of hospital. Though these would be a bonus that cannot be guaranteed.
Social distancing and hand-washing will need to continue at #NearZero levels of infection. But masks are probably not necessary until infections start rising again, and could be made voluntary.
But with the best will in the world, infection levels will be prone to rise. The lower the level reached by an Enhanced FireBreak, the longer that would take. Probably getting to at least half-term in February and then in May before further restrictions would be necessary.
By comparison to the Welsh Firebreak or continuing with the three-tier approach, the indicative picture for the next six months or so would be:
TIMING
Most schools in England break up tomorrow, Friday. Let's get this Enhanced FireBreak started so was can all reap the benefits to our lives, livelihoods and life before Christmas.
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