COVID-19: LONG COVID SUFFERERS NOW OVER 1.5 MILLION IN UK

Long COVID cases rising per ONS

On 3 March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published a report suggesting that at 31 January 2022 "An estimated 1.5 million people living in private households in the UK (2.4% of the population) were experiencing self-reported Long COVID."  That's "symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were not explained by something else."  

Whilst there are several caveats about these figures, whether they are under-stated or over-stated, that is a monstrous figure.  Lives blighted, and employment often restricted.  Employers and the economy seriously affected.

That 1.5 million reflects infection from Delta or one of the earlier variants prevalent in 2020 and 2021.  The onset of Omicron in December 2021 will begin to be reflected in the imminent report for February, given at least a 4-week delay due to the definition of Long COVID.  Though the current wave of Omicron BA.2 won't affect figures until March and April that are reported a month after the end of each month.  In other words we won't know much about the long COVID affects of the Omicron variants in the UK until early May or June.

The same goes for experience of Omicron in other countries, given waves of infection at similar times.

In the meantime the British Medical Journal published this article on 18 March, suggesting:

• "...nothing is certain regarding Omicron and Long COVID, mainly because the variant roared on to the scene so suddenly in December that too little time has passed to detect a strong Omicron signal in the ongoing stream of Long COVID cases"
• "...most cases appear to stem from infections that did not require hospitalization, and they are starting to see Omicron-related cases and have little reason to think the variant will differ from earlier versions of the virus in its ability to generate Long COVID."
• Concluding "Because there are so many people infected with Omicron, we expect those cases, unfortunately, will lead to more cases of Long COVID with more suffering and more economic costs."

In other words, we might expect to see ONS reporting far higher numbers than 1.5 million in the next couple of months.  Let's hope not, but looks likely.

 

RAISING THE ISSUE IN PARLIAMENT

Today Layla Moran, who is the MP who chairs the APPG for Coronavirus, started a debate in Westminster titled "The impact of long COVID on the UK workforce".  The full transcript is available here and can also be watched here.  

The stories in the transcript are heart-breaking.  

But it is also the affect on businesses and other organisations ability to function with a reduced workforce, and the adverse affect that has on the economy and our daily lives.  Even when we ourselves are not affected by Long COVID, let alone those that are.

 

THESE HIGH NUMBERS OF LONG COVID SUFFERERS WEREN'T WITHOUT WARNING

Here's some tweets I published earlier today in response to Layla's excellent interview on BBC Radio.

These tweets show that I and many others were encouraging the Government to do more to suppress infection numbers from as early as the summer of 2020.  That it wasn't just about deaths and the pressure on hospitals, important as they are, but also the impact of Long COVID on individuals and society.  We couldn't take the risk.  Yet the Governments of the UK did.

(1) "Long Covid? My blog covered Long COVID repeatedly: https://covidcourier.blogspot.com When identified that Covid-19 produces long life-changing debilitation, should have been a key factor in Government policy. Not just deaths."

(2)  "One and a half million already. To which will likely be added a proportion of this latest wave, who have not been ill long enough yet. Diabolical consequences for individuals, the economy, and short-staffing."

(3) "My first blogpost focused on Long Covid was in August 2020, just 5 months after the first lockdown started: https://bit.ly/longcv19 The conclusion being "... infections. Preferably below 2 per day per hundred thousand" per day.

(4)  "That first blogpost focused on Long COVID affecting individuals. This was followed up in other posts, including last July after a set of ONS stats: https://bit.ly/cv19longcovidons "Does that mean removing ...mitigations ...?" Now?"  Now in March 2022?  What if Delta or further nasty variants make a comeback?

(5) "There's also societal consequences. This blogpost in April 2021: http://bit.ly/ons_longcovid "Not just the risk of death. As a nation, Long Covid has been an important reason to take action to reduce infection rates.""

Do you think the Governments of the UK countries did enough to reduce infection rates?

COVID-19: 1 IN 15 PEOPLE HAD COVID IN UK RECENTLY. WHAT'S GOING ON?

The Office for National Statistics run a regular Covid Infection Survey across the UK.  Today's report, 25 March, for the week ending 19 March suggests 1 in 15 people had Covid.  That's over 4 million, up 30% on the week before and 54% up on the week before that. Rising in all four countries. Now mainly the highly transmissible Omicron BA.2 variant.

That is resulting in increased hospitalisations, plus widespread disruption in general life.  

It is disruption that is just as much a worry.  For example, I'm a member of a volunteer group, and the volunteer numbers are being decimated. with people going down with Covid or in contact with people who have it.  As we have contact with people who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, volunteers have no choice but to keep away, with obvious consequences on the service we are able to provide..  Many employers are finding similar issues, with examples of whole shifts being struck down ill with Covid for an extended period.  A pal who has been very careful, enough to escape Covid for two years, has just gone down with it.

On the right expands the most recent weeks

So what's going on?  Is it us or the virus?

 

WHAT WE ARE DOING

Focusing on England, all restrictions have been lifted.  Supermarkets and public transport are recommending masks are still to be worn, and some people do.  But many don't, and other legal restrictions have been completely lifted, such as checking before entry to care homes, nightclubs, and other events.  

The whole attitude from Government is to treat Covid like influenza.  For most people, 'flu normally means a couple of days in bed, and soon back to work,. The new Omicron BA.2 which is now dominant, is milder than Delta, but is keeping people ill and off work for 10 days or more.  Much longer than the original Omicron.  Likely to have greater adverse long term LongCovid consequences too. 

Indeed the arrival of Omicron BA.2 is fuelling the rise in infections compared to Omicron BA.1 before it. 

 

IS IT SENSIBLE TO STOP FREE TESTING?

Free Lateral Flow Tests are being withdrawn after the end of March.  But around here in East Oxford it's effectively happened now.  You can't get a test kit delivered, and the pharmacies are out of stock for collections, with no expectation of further supplies.

That's fine if we can just get on with life.  But we can't.  For the sake of vulmerable people, and for groups not to be struck down, we need to be taking tests.  Test packs need to continue to be provided free of charge.

ARE THE VACCINATIONS STILL WORKING?

On the positive side, I have now gone 88 consecutive days with negative Lateral Flow Test results.  That's as at 25 March - click here for update.  That is since having Omicron at Christmas, which would have been the milder BA.1 variant.  

However there is evidence that:

• The three main jabs (two jobs plus booster) were good for Delta and previous variants, for which the vaccinations were designed, but are of limited help for Omicron.  Preventing serious disease, but doing littel to stop Omicron infections
• Effectiveness of the jabs is reducing.  Hence the new booster for the over 75s and others.
  

Whilst we can live more easily with Covid as a result of vaccination, we cannot rely on it completely.  The high rates of Omicron are not acceptable.

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

The big question!

My view throughout thsi pandemic is that we need to take action to reduce infection levels for several reasons:

• Reduce deaths and serious disease, especially amongst clinically vulnerable people
  
• Reduce long term LongCovid consequences, which can result in people being unable to work or function normally
• Avoid the disruption arising from a high proportion of workers being absent ill.  Especially in the food supply chain and amongst teachers.  
• Avoid the disruption to education from pupils being absent from school ill
  
• Reduce strain on hospitals, GPs and other health professionals involved in initial and longer term care
• Give clinically vulnerable people the confidence to go shopping, use public transport and do other daily activities
  
• Reduce risk of new 'variants of concern' emerging, and more quickly tackle them when they inevitably do arise
  

That means continuing to take the threat of Covid seriously. Keeping businesses open, including the places inherently more likely to have transmission such as nightclubs.  But taking all reasonable precautions, which can include:

• Compulsorily wear masks on public transport, in shops, and in other indoor public places.  This protects others if you are unknowingly contagious, as well as protecting the wearer
• Improve ventilation in schools and other public places
• A general attitude of looking after each other

None of these things are happening adequately.  The Government is letting us all down with the wrong attitude, wrong advice to the public, and the absence of necessary regulations.

COVID-19: WHY IS IT TAKING LONGER TO RECOVER FROM OMICRON?

A positive LFT result

We've discussed the possibility of more troublesome variants of Covid cropping up.  We must be prepared for the worst.

This week my doctor pal told me "... we don't have a single ventilated omicron patient on ICU in my hospital right now.".  Yet Covid cases are rising again, and people I know are still going down with it, despite being fully jabbed.  The comedian Al Murray, for example.  Milder disease, but causing disruption to schedules and workplaces.

There's then the problem that people are taking longer to recover.  I had a negative LFT for Omicron at Christmas only two days after showing positive.  Now it's typically 6-10 days, such as for Professor Alice Robert still positive on day 7.

SO WHAT'S GOING ON?

We know that Omicron B.1 has morphed into B1.1 and B.2.  There is also the new 'DeltaCron' combination of Delta with the more transmissible spike protein from Omicron, now confirmed as being in the UK.

The Government dropped formal restrictions too early.  The vulnerable still need to be protected, so formal isolation should continue, for example. Masks should still be worn in shops and other public places where the vulnerable need to be. 

WHY THE LONGER RECOVERY?

What exactly is causing this longer recovery?  Which variant or variants?  We need to know.  

We also need to know that the country is prepared for a variant that is worse.  Is it?  Sadly that's a QTWTAIN.

COVID-19: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT "DELTACRON"?

There has been concern that a new variant of COVID could arise.  Such as having the potency of the Delta lineage with the high transmissibility of Omicron.

Institut Pasteur has now provided  the raw sequencing of the new 'Deltacron' variant, showing:

• Core backbone derived from Delta
• Spike protein of Omicron, which is what makes Omicron so transmissible
  

Recombinant viruses like this can arise when someone is infected with two variants at the same time, and the viruses then replicate together.

On the face of it, this 'Deltacron' cross-variant could be a major problem.  Fortunately it is believed to have originated in January, without it spreading uncontrollably.  So we can rest easy for now.  But we must remain vigilant for this or some other worrying variant taking hold.

That's why it is worrying that the British Government has scaled back anti-Covid measures too hastily.

 

https://twitter.com/macroliter/status/1501260671576539143?s=20&t=STrmnSGF-NY84R_b54J7HA

COVID-19: THE FREEDOM EXPERIMENT updated

Buzzcocks in Oxford

As previously reported, I succumbed to Omicron on Boxing Day.  Despite being triple-jabbed.  Two brands of Lateral Flow Tests showing positive, confirmed by a PCR.

In this previous article, we note that Omicron's spike protein is physically different from that of Delta and earlier variants, and infects cells through a simpler mechanism.  As a result Omicron infects different cells, and produces different symptoms.  Escaping immunity to those earlier variants.  Really a different disease.

THE BIG QUESTION / THE BIG EXPERIMENT

Can immunity to the various Covid variants be provided by the combination of triple vaccination and Omicron infection?  Does that combination provide freedom - at least until a new nasty variant appears. Such as this 'Deltacron'?

Let's experiment.  The advantage of living in Oxford is plenty of low-cost but high quality musical opportunities.  

Over the first 9 weeks of 2022, I've been to 36 music gigs and nightclubs, that would be regarded as 'super-spreader' events.  Yes, 4 a week.  Plus pubs and 11 ensemble rehearsals.  

With so many people I know locally going down with Covid in recent weeks, there's been plenty of Covid about.  Every opportunity to catch one variant or another.

 

 

THE RESULTS ARE IN !

Let's dance!

No control, and only a sample of one.  But by doing a Lateral Flow Test every morning, the results are in:

• Now 71 consecutive daily negative results since 28 December (4 + 31 + 28 +8) - see latest update below
  
• A day or two feeling lousy in February, as if fighting off infection.  Though that could have been anything

I'd call that result freedom.  Wouldn't you? 

UPDATE 6 April 2022

Make that 100 consecutive daily negative LFT results, 4+31+28+31+6.  Even after attending potentially super-spreader events nearly every day since New Year.  More than three full months of 'out out' living since New Years's Eve.  Freedom!

But this article in the Guardian warns "We are at the start of the 90-day period for possible reinfection with BA.2 following a BA.1 infection".  BA.2 is the variant now most prevalent in the UK, with BA.1 being the variant around in late December when I was infected with it.  

So how long before I go down with Omicron again?  The experiment continues, though my supply of LFTs is limited.  Test kits became unavailable for delivery or collection around here at least 10 days early, in mid March.

 

COVID-19: WHAT DO WE KNOW NOW ABOUT OMICRON?

In late December 2021 I published a report from Glasgow University suggesting that Omicron attacks cells through a different mechanism than that used by earlier variants.  As a result different cells are more susceptible, and the symptoms are very different.  I went as far as to suggest the disease should be called COVID-21 rather than the original COVID-19.

Since then I have been waiting for confirmation of the science, and acknowledgement that we are fighting two different diseases.  Similar but different, like cousins.  

THE LATEST RESEARCH

Further work, including by Imperial College London, has confirmed a simpler entry mechanism:

• Delta and earlier variants require both the ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptors on cells to gain entry
• Omicron only requires ACE2
  

 

The article provides further detail, and suggests that Omicron can evade immunity to the earlier variants.  My own boosted triple-vaccination immunity certainly didn't stop me catching Omicron over Christmas.

The original Omicron BA.1 has spawned troublesome sub-lineages such as BA.1.1 and BA.2.  The latter is even more transmissible than the BA.1s, which in turn are far more transmissible than earlier variants.  We know the spike protein of the Omicron variants is physically very different from the other variants of concern such as Alpha and Delta.  A couple of weeks ago the World Health Organisation published an update on Omicron, but still regards it as variants of the SARS-COV-2 virus, rather than say SARS-COV-3.  No mention of a new disease name such as COVID-21.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US?

I think regarding Omicron as a variant of the same disease is missing a trick.  From personal and public health perspectives, we should be regarding Omicron and the earlier variants as two different diseases.  For example:

• Omicron causing different and generally milder symptoms, with existing vaccination and natural immunity offering little protection from infection
• Good immunity from future COVID infection effectively requires triple jabs plus a dose of Omicron itself (see my own personal experiment)
• Uncertainty as to whether a dose of Omicron provides any protection against Delta and earlier variants. Early indication are that it does, at least to some extent.  But it is too early to rely on protection being adequate, especially against any new variants
  
• Therefore public health policy based fundamentally on Omicron ignores the strong possibility of a resurgence of Delta and similar variants.  Removing isolation rules and scaling back testing so harshly are mistakes.  SAGE should continue to monitor developments
  

IN CONCLUSION

We should publicly acknowledge that there are two different coronavirus diseases, and live our lives individually and collectively with that understanding.  My concern is that the more dangerous Delta, and future variants of it, is waiting to really bite us in the posterior!