COVID-19: 1 IN 15 PEOPLE HAD COVID IN UK RECENTLY. WHAT'S GOING ON?

The Office for National Statistics run a regular Covid Infection Survey across the UK.  Today's report, 25 March, for the week ending 19 March suggests 1 in 15 people had Covid.  That's over 4 million, up 30% on the week before and 54% up on the week before that. Rising in all four countries. Now mainly the highly transmissible Omicron BA.2 variant.

That is resulting in increased hospitalisations, plus widespread disruption in general life.  

It is disruption that is just as much a worry.  For example, I'm a member of a volunteer group, and the volunteer numbers are being decimated. with people going down with Covid or in contact with people who have it.  As we have contact with people who are Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, volunteers have no choice but to keep away, with obvious consequences on the service we are able to provide..  Many employers are finding similar issues, with examples of whole shifts being struck down ill with Covid for an extended period.  A pal who has been very careful, enough to escape Covid for two years, has just gone down with it.

On the right expands the most recent weeks

So what's going on?  Is it us or the virus?

 

WHAT WE ARE DOING

Focusing on England, all restrictions have been lifted.  Supermarkets and public transport are recommending masks are still to be worn, and some people do.  But many don't, and other legal restrictions have been completely lifted, such as checking before entry to care homes, nightclubs, and other events.  

The whole attitude from Government is to treat Covid like influenza.  For most people, 'flu normally means a couple of days in bed, and soon back to work,. The new Omicron BA.2 which is now dominant, is milder than Delta, but is keeping people ill and off work for 10 days or more.  Much longer than the original Omicron.  Likely to have greater adverse long term LongCovid consequences too. 

Indeed the arrival of Omicron BA.2 is fuelling the rise in infections compared to Omicron BA.1 before it. 

 

IS IT SENSIBLE TO STOP FREE TESTING?

Free Lateral Flow Tests are being withdrawn after the end of March.  But around here in East Oxford it's effectively happened now.  You can't get a test kit delivered, and the pharmacies are out of stock for collections, with no expectation of further supplies.

That's fine if we can just get on with life.  But we can't.  For the sake of vulmerable people, and for groups not to be struck down, we need to be taking tests.  Test packs need to continue to be provided free of charge.

ARE THE VACCINATIONS STILL WORKING?

On the positive side, I have now gone 88 consecutive days with negative Lateral Flow Test results.  That's as at 25 March - click here for update.  That is since having Omicron at Christmas, which would have been the milder BA.1 variant.  

However there is evidence that:

• The three main jabs (two jobs plus booster) were good for Delta and previous variants, for which the vaccinations were designed, but are of limited help for Omicron.  Preventing serious disease, but doing littel to stop Omicron infections
• Effectiveness of the jabs is reducing.  Hence the new booster for the over 75s and others.
  

Whilst we can live more easily with Covid as a result of vaccination, we cannot rely on it completely.  The high rates of Omicron are not acceptable.

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

The big question!

My view throughout thsi pandemic is that we need to take action to reduce infection levels for several reasons:

• Reduce deaths and serious disease, especially amongst clinically vulnerable people
  
• Reduce long term LongCovid consequences, which can result in people being unable to work or function normally
• Avoid the disruption arising from a high proportion of workers being absent ill.  Especially in the food supply chain and amongst teachers.  
• Avoid the disruption to education from pupils being absent from school ill
  
• Reduce strain on hospitals, GPs and other health professionals involved in initial and longer term care
• Give clinically vulnerable people the confidence to go shopping, use public transport and do other daily activities
  
• Reduce risk of new 'variants of concern' emerging, and more quickly tackle them when they inevitably do arise
  

That means continuing to take the threat of Covid seriously. Keeping businesses open, including the places inherently more likely to have transmission such as nightclubs.  But taking all reasonable precautions, which can include:

• Compulsorily wear masks on public transport, in shops, and in other indoor public places.  This protects others if you are unknowingly contagious, as well as protecting the wearer
• Improve ventilation in schools and other public places
• A general attitude of looking after each other

None of these things are happening adequately.  The Government is letting us all down with the wrong attitude, wrong advice to the public, and the absence of necessary regulations.