The two western-culture countries that have arguably done best in keeping their economies open are New Zealand and Sweden. Two completely different strategies, but difficult to see how either of their strategies could work in the UK. That's because of the UK's close ties to the continent on the one hand, and constraints in the health service and the public's willingness to accept another high toll in deaths:
But we can still learn from them, and several of the South-East Asian countries with very different cultures, that are also said to be shining beacons of how to deal with COVID-19.
The end result of considering all the strategic options is to agree with Professor Chris Whitty from back in May that:
- Eradication of the virus worldwide is impossible, so we'll always have to live with it to a greater or lesser extent, dependent on the use of vaccines
- The second wave could be worse than the first, as the virus is so infectious
- New cases need to drop to the hundreds for the economy to reopen, a 'very low' level of infections
A 'very low' level of infections is #NearZero. The UK has tolerated a 'low' level of infections by following a 'suppression' strategy in the hope of opening the economy, but has since lost control. If we want to open the economy with a #NearZero strategy then that needs to be a Super-Suppression strategy.
A SUPER-SUPPRESSION STRATEGY
A Super-Suppression strategy requires two things:
- Getting infections down to #NearZero
- Keeping infections down to #NearZero
It is worth getting infections down to #NearZero for two fundamental reasons:
- Reducing deaths, LongCOVID and all the other problems of a medium to high level of infections that UK is now experiencing
- Re-opening the economy
KEEPING INFECTIONS DOWN TO #NEARZERO LEVELS
But those two objectives can only be achieved sustainably if steps are taken to keep infections down, including:
- Controls on inbound travellers, be they returning citizens, visiting business people, or tourists
- Controls on inbound goods, especially chilled goods in or on which viruses may have survived
- Spotting and dealing with outbreaks as soon as they arise:
- Testing of those without symptoms being at least as important as testing the symptomatic, who should self-isolate anyway
- Workplace testing, especially riskier industries such as slaughter houses
- Monitoring virus levels in sewage system
Even New Zealand, which has far stricter controls on immigration than could be practical here, has had virus get into the country. Outbreak control is never perfect, so we have to assume that even under super-suppression, infection levels will tend to rise.
The idea is if the infection level in each area of the country is down to #NearZero levels, it would take weeks if not months before levels rose to force businesses to close.
GETTING TO #NEARZERO
If we can adopt an Enhanced FireBreak by extending Half Term in England now, we could get infections down to a #NearZero level. Then the best estimate would be three months before further action would be needed, getting to half-term in February, then half-term in May.
The Welsh only expect to get to the New Year with a shorter standard FireBreak, which would then need to be repeated on a more regular basis.
The current three-tier strategy in England is far too complicated. It is unlikely to bring infections back down to summer levels, now the colder weather is bringing people more indoors. Neither the British Medical Association nor Professor Chris Whitty, The Chief Medical Advisor, believe the restrictions will be effective.
Diagrammatically, indicatively, the comparison would be:
FINANCIAL SUPPORT
Financial support from the Government is critical if businesses are to be instructed to close down in any form of lockdown. As you'll see from the diagram, the #NearZero strategy in blue has three advantages for the Treasury:
- Closure times will be minimised, minimising the financial support needed
- A more vibrant economy will minimise Social Security payments
- A more vibrant economy will also maximise VAT and income tax receipts
A No-Brainer for the Treasury?
IN CONCLUSION
So by adopting a #NearZero super-suppression strategy with periodic Enhanced FireBreaks we could keep infection rates low enough to keep most if not all of the economy open. Living with the virus much as we live with flu, at least until a vaccine is available.
Saving Christmas. Saving Lives. Saving Livelihoods. And better for the Treasury.
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