Key points arising were:
- Infections continue to rise, especially in Northern England and the Midlands
- This is now translating into rising hospitalisations and rising deaths
- Sir Patrick admitted "We don't have this under control at the moment"
- Johnson said "the best way forwards, to protect the NHS, save lives, to keep our children in school and the economy moving, is to follow the rules wherever we live."
- He also said "If the evidence requires it, we will not hesitate to take further measures that would, I’m afraid, be more costly than the ones we have put into effect now"
But is he right?:
- Is the Government's strategy the best way?
- Need further measures be more costly?
THE ECONOMIC SCENARIO
As we've seen in this summary of the financial support for employees and the self-employed being put in place for the next six months, many people will find they get little or no support, other than resorting to Universal Credit.
The ongoing closure of the entertainment and night-time industries nationally, plus national and local restrictions on hospitality, means the economy is not fully open.
Many children are being sent home from school to self-isolate, in many cases removing their parents from work to look after them.
No business can plan ahead, nor individuals. What will happen at Christmas? We're living each day as it comes. This cannot carry on.
The Government's current strategy is already costing the nation a fortune.
ARE THE GOVERNMENT'S CURRENT RESTRICTIVE MEASURES WORKING?
There is evidence that the rate of increase in infections is slowing, but infections are still increasing. Localised restrictions have only worked well in Luton.
The Government is crossing fingers that the measures will result in a decrease in cases. But with deaths already up at 71 per day for the last two days, is crossing fingers enough?
WHAT ABOUT A SECOND NATIONAL LOCKDOWN?
The first lockdown reduced infection levels to about a sixth. In the summer that would have been enough to get to very low levels, around 200 "new confirmed cases" per day. But now that isn't enough to get levels down to what they were in the summer, let alone to a very low level.
The economic cost of a lockdown would be high, for little impact.
THE ALTERNATIVE
What if we could most of the economy open? Get back to theatres? To gigs? To sports?
Not to have to worry about kids being sent home? Nor students locked in halls of residence?
All this is possible if we get to very low levels of infection, #NearZero.
The Government has been following a "suppression" strategy. This would be "super-suppression".
The idea is that get to #NearZero, and jobs are saved, industries currently closed are saved, and that costs the Exchequer far less.
Indeed #NearZero is good for the Exchequer and its Chancellor.
BUT HOW TO GET TO #NEARZERO?
Jane Merrick reports that the Government is considering simplifying restrictive measures into just three tiers. But will any of these be tough enough? Unlikely.
People typically develop symptoms in around 5 days, but can take up to 14. So if you can self-isolate everybody, within two weeks everyone infected will have developed symptoms, and will know if necessary to continue isolating. Anyone in their household will likely have been infected early in that fortnight, and many will have developed symptoms within that fortnight. Three weeks and virtually everybody will have developed symptoms who is going to. Anyone asymptomatic might also be expected to be no longer infectious after two or three weeks.
Which means in theory that we could reach #NearZero in as little as two or three weeks, if everybody were to self-isolate.
Could this be a practical reality?
Everybody who downloads the NHS COVID-19 app should expect to receive a self-isolation alert, and be ready with sufficient food, medicines and anything else they need for 14 days. Everybody else likewise, as anyone can receive such an instruction.
So could everyone self-isolate together? A Mass Self-Isolation (MSI)? Why not? There will need to be some exceptions, such as those who need daily care. But fundamentally an MSI is feasible.
HOW TO STAY NEARZERO?
But having got to #NearZero, how do you stay there?
The biggest issue is visitors from abroad, and potentially physical objects, especially if chilled. A better approach to testing and quarantine is required. But with the best will in the world, viruses will get into the country, as New Zealand has found.
Any outbreak needs to be pounced on. But if that doesn't work we could have another MSI.
Is a 2-week MSI every three months such a bad thing if we can then get 11 weeks of near normal life? A stronger economy every quarter overall than we are getting at the moment.
Super-suppression with a Mass Self-Isolation. The passport to a near-normal life across this winter? Let's discuss and debate to find the nest way to get this to work.
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