I agree with them. Though in some parts of the country the economic affects are already happening, with many businesses forced to close.
However I do not agree with their solution. We need a different solution that achieves both health and the economy. That isn't to let the virus 'let rip', as herd immunity would take months or years (if ever) whilst leaving many thousands of dead in its wake. Plus many more LongCOVID sufferers across all ages, including children where the worst forms are called MIS-C.
Surely achieving both health and a vibrant economy is impossible? Let's see.
OPENING THE ECONOMY
Herd immunity is a non-starter, as the required level of immunity would take years or at least months, not a few weeks, with immunity not yet guaranteed. Whilst leaving an horrendous cost in lives and LongCOVID sufferers. Likewise any variant such as the Great Barrington debacle.
Sweden has kept much of its economy and education open, but it hasn't been herd immunity. Large gatherings over 50 have not been possible, and education for over 16s has been disrupted. What has suited Sweden wouldn't work in UK, which is why we went into lockdown in March.
We have to look at the other end of the strategy spectrum for inspiration, at "suppression" and "elimination".
Elimination is being tried by New Zealand and parts of the Far East, but would not work in the UK, having a different culture and far greater interactions with other countries. These other countries have nonetheless each had problems, though have kept infections down to near-zero levels and been able to re-open their economies. Hugging restored in New Zealand, for example, at least for a while.
Suppression has been the UK's policy, like most of Europe, which we have seen doesn't work as infection rates everywhere surge. Infection levels in England were low in the summer, and the opportunity to get them very low was squandered. We needed to get them below 200 per day confirmed new cases, at that level of testing of just the symptomatic.
SUPER-SUPPRESSION
We need a practical strategy, in between suppression and elimination. Nearly as effective as elimination, but stronger than suppression. Let's call it "Super-Suppression", with infections rates at #NearZero. Less than 200 official "new confirmed cases" a day nationally across England and UK. Little chance of meeting someone infectious
That wouldn't be quite as good as elimination, but close. Official levels went down to about 700 over the summer, and it is a pity the opportunity to get down to very low levels wasn't taken. That would have unlocked most if not all of the economy:
We know from the summer that with modest business restrictions, infection rates stay down. At very low rates we might expect rates to stay down for some time with those restrictions removed, albeit with "Space, Face, Hands" in that priority order still being practised. At least until mass vaccination has taken place, perhaps later in 2021.
A SUPER-SUPPRESSION STRATEGY
So the idea is to open the economy by getting infections down and keeping them down. Controls strengthened on people arriving in the country. Controls also strengthened on chilled food and other incoming products that are are still suspected as being sources of outbreaks in New Zealand.
But there will always be 'leakage' of viruses into the country, as well as people ignoring advice and otherwise being unlucky in catching the virus. Local outbreak teams would need to pounce on outbreaks, but we have to assume that infection rates will begin to rise. The lower we can get infections, the longer that would take.
But how do we get to #NearZero?
FIRE BREAKS
Talk now is of a "circuit breaker" for 2-3 weeks, with similar restrictions to the first lockdown, but schools potentially staying open. That could be applied locally in areas of high infection, but preferably nationally.
That was what SAGE recommended on 21 September. But that was more than three weeks ago, and infection rates have risen considerably since then.
If we want to do something for 2-3 weeks now, then something stronger and sharper is needed. We need to think the unthinkable, in recognition that this is a war against an invisible enemy that is seeking to kill us and otherwise disrupt our economy.
I would call this breaker a "Fire Break". Working as close to a total lockdown as possible, with a Mass Simultaneous Self-isolation of 2-3 weeks. Closing as much as possible that wasn't closed in the first lockdown. Perhaps most people not being allowed out at all. Using our stocks of food, medicines and other essentials that we all ought to have in stock for an individual self-isolation.
The more that can be closed, the lower the infection rate would go, and the longer it would be before another lockdown was needed.
A SUPER-SUPPRESSION STRATEGY
Businesses, schools, universities and other organisations as well as individuals are complaining they can't plan ahead. The restrictions keep changing, in an unpredictable manner. I feel especially sorry for hospitality businesses in parts of the country that have invested in being COVID-secure, only to find they are being closed down indefinitely.
A "Super-Suppression" strategy would be far fairer in applying to everybody across the country. Doing away with all these complicated and ambiguous rules and threats of fines. Back to the simplicity of "Stay at Home".
Then unlocking all or most of the economy as soon as the pre-defined period was over.
The only uncertainties would be quite how far down infection rates would go, and then how long between Fire Breaks. But everyone will know how important it is to follow "Space, Face, Hands" advice, which will help to prolong the periods when the economy can remain open.
WHY NOT WAIT UNTIL THE NEW THREE-TIER SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRIED?
The problem with the tiers is what Professor Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, said on Monday that the top-tier measures will not be enough to solve the virus problem in those areas. They haven't worked in Bolton.
Furthermore, waiting for hospitalisations and deaths means waiting weeks, and by then it would be too late. We need decisive action now.
WHAT ABOUT A CIRCUIT BREAK?
Now infections have risen substantially since SAGE's advice on 21 September, my concern is that a basic "Circuit Break" will simply not be enough. It will reduce infection rates, to protect us all from the worst of what would otherwise happen over the winter. That would be very welcome. But it won't unlock the economy. The costs of a lockdown with health benefits, but without economic benefits.
TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE
Tougher Fire Breaks as part of a Super-Suppression strategy would achieve both objectives:
- Open the economy for considerable periods between Fire Breaks
- Overall reduce infection levels, deaths and LongCOVID to far lower levels.
Better for Lives. Better for Livelihoods. Better for the Economy and Treasury.
Apart from anything else, saving Christmas 2020.
Yes we need a Contact Breaker with rules like the first lockdown. As soon as possible, while schools are closed for Half Term.. Making it a Fire Break by a Voluntary Mass Simultaneous Self-Isolation. No longer, and with financial support for all businesses and individuals affected.
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