COVID-19: ALL EYES ARE ON THE NEW INDIAN VARIANT

We all want life to get back to normal.  That is potentially 21 June in England, when all legal restrictions could be removed.

However Professor Chris Whitty, the UK Chief Medical Advisor, spoke yesterday about 'variants of concern'.  These are viral variants that could undermine those plans.  That is by being more transmissible, more nasty, or potentially make the vaccines less effective.

The latest such variant B1.617.2 in the UK was first identified in India.  Professor Whitty was clearly concerned about it, partly because it is new and poorly understood.  It has already shown rapid growth, albeit still at low levels.

Professor Christina Nagel has highlighted research from the Sanger Institute with a Twitter thread that as she says "It's not looking good at all" about the India variant.  This underlines Prof Whitty's concern that this variant is more transmissible even than the 'Kent' variant B1.1.7, which is now dominating UK infections.

Key points are in two of the graphics.  Firstly this India variant is growing rapidly in several regions of England, where it has grown to over 5% of confirmed and sequenced cases:

As a result this variant is increasing rapidly in total as a proportion of confirmed cases in the general population of England, even ignoring surge testing.  Other variants only account for 1%:

 

Until this variant is better understood, as individuals it is best to continue with the same caution about catching this disease, despite next Monday's relaxations of restrictions.  As a country, this has increased the risk that the 21 June relaxations will need to be postponed or scaled back.  Let's hope not.

This Indian variant needs to be taken seriously, including surge testing.   Not only to avoid a delay for 21 June, but also to avoid a significant rise in infections later in the year, especially as we go back indoors for the autumn and winter.

This variant also highlights why it is important to monitor the affects of the 17 May relaxations for three or four weeks before deciding what can be relaxed on 21 June.  Further explanation here.

Fingers crossed!

 

UPDATE 14/5/21

Christina has added that the relaxations on 17 May should be deferred, as 'test 4' is no longer met:

• We don't yet know whether the Indian variant is more transmissible than other variants.  Indications are that it is more of a problem, as it appears to be out-competing the dominant Kent variant
  
• We don't yet know whether vaccines are as effective.  Some protection but perhaps not as good.
• The vaccine programme is nonetheless providing increased protection as each week goes by
  https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1392927819504701441?s=20e than

As a result we don't yet know whether current restrictions are enough to keep the Indian variant under control, yet alone after relaxations next Monday.  There is merit in delaying Monday's plans until the situation is clearer.

To still go ahead with Monday's relaxations means the Government has to believe that the risk of a steep rise in variant cases is less than the benefits of re-opening.  A tough call.