COVID-19: HOW ABOUT OPENING UP THE ECONOMY EARLIER?

The key COVID-19 statistics are improving dramatically in England and the UK.  The question is whether the Government should re-open sections of the economy more quickly than the current Road Map?

We all want everything re-open.  But there are two considerations as to why we should remain cautious:

1. How long to wait after a set of relaxations before the next set?
2. What about 'Variants of Concern'?

 

GAPS BETWEEN SETS OF RELAXATIONS

The Government's Road Map for England sets out three key dates for sets of relaxations:

• 12 April
• Not before 17 May, just two weeks away
  
• Not before 21 June, fully re-open
  

These dates are five weeks apart deliberately:

• One week's notice for businesses
• Time for infections to be reflected in the data for infections, hospitalisations and deaths
• Time for analysis
• Time to make decisions as to what if anything can be re-opened
  

A key lesson from 2020 is that to re-open too quickly can result in a further wave of infection, and a further lockdown.  Nobody wants that. It is therefore important to monitor the data for a while after each set of relaxations before making the next set.  So we can't just skip that review, and rush to re-open everything now.

But could the five-week gap be reduced?  Possibly by a week.  But that means less data, so would add risk of a further lockdown being needed. 

So for the sake of a week, it is not worth taking that risk.  Better to stick to the plan.  Five weeks is the minimum.

 

VARIANTS OF CONCERN

Vaccines are very good, but not perfect.  The risk of infection and serious illness is dropping rapidly as the vaccination programme rolls out.  But there's the concern that a new variant could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines, and possibly make them ineffective.

The higher the rate of infection, the more likely such a 'Variant of Concern' will arise.  This could arise in the UK, or more likely in other countries where infection rates are higher. 

The Government is continuing with restrictions on international travel, which will no doubt continue long after the domestic economy re-opens.

But what about the timetable for re-opening?  

There are already four Variants of Concern circulating in the UK:

• Originally identified in Kent (B1.1.7) which quickly became the dominant variant in the UK as it is more transmissible than previous variants
• South African (B1.351)
  
• Indian (B1.6.17)
• Brazilian (P.1)
  

The risk is that to relax restrictions too quickly will allow one or more of these variants to take hold.  Given what we know about these variants already, that risk is not just trivial.  This highlights that it is vital to monitor the data for an adequate time after a set of relaxations.  

Again this suggests the Road Map timetable should not be accelerated.  Indeed we have to consider that the dates are correctly marked 'Not before'.  We need to hope the vaccines are sufficiently effective against each one of the current and future variants.  

 

IN CONCLUSION

It is perfectly reasonable to ask whether the Road Map timetable could be accelerated.  

However because of the multiple Variants of Concern already in the country, it is important to monitor the data for at least the time proposed.  To cut corners would increase the risk of the need for a further lockdown.  That would not be in the country's interest.

Reluctantly, let's stick to the current Road Map timetable.