COVID-19: OMICRON - IS THIS SARS3? WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN? [Updated 7/12/21]

This new Omicron variant has significant mutations in the genome of the virus compared to the original virus that causes COVID-19.   Now Omicron is deemed a "Variant of Concern", and the worry is that changes to its spike protein could let the virus 'escape' immunity derived from vaccines or prior infection.  Yet be as serious a threat to life.

How bad is it?  Let's investigate.

BACKGROUND

The original COVID-19 virus is officially called SARS-COV-2.  "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2".  Let's call it SARS2.  

SARS2 is not the only coronavirus.  Many common colds are caused by coronaviruses.  You've probably had at least one, with little consequence beyond unpleasant snuffles.

But some coronaviruses cause serious disease:

•  In 2002-2004 the original SARS epidemic spread to 29 different countries and territories worldwide, infected over 8,000 people, and resulted in at least 774 deaths.  SARS1 infections luckily petered out.  That should have been the warning, and the western world should have been better prepared for SARS2. 
• In 2012 MERS-COV appeared which causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.  That kills some 35% or more of those who are diagnosed with the disease, but fortunately is not very infectious.  So it too has petered out.  Another warning ignored.
  
• Then in 2019 came SARS2 causing COVID-19.  SARS2 is more infectious than SARS1 and MERS and so has spread further and faster, whilst still being lethal.  As of 7 December 2021, SARS2 is estimated to have caused more than 266 million cases of infection globally.  Some 5.26 million deaths have been confirmed, making the pandemic one of the deadliest in history that has caused severe economic harm and disrupted our lives in so many different ways.
  

So what if SARS3 and then SARS4 were to appear?  As lethal as MERS and at least as infectious as SARS2 ?

HOW WELL PREPARED ARE WE FOR SARS3?

A few weeks ago I asked how well-prepared we were for the next serious coronavirus, in the context of a House of Commons report titled "Coronavirus - Lessons learned to date".

We haven't had long to find out.  Whether Omicron becomes officially designated as SARS3 or not [* below], the many changes in its genetic code could mean it 'escapes' the protection provided by vaccines designed for earlier variants.  To a greater or lesser extent.  We don't yet know.  At best it's no worse than the other recent variants.  At worst it might take us back to square one, escaping the protection afforded by vaccines and prior infection whilst still being deadly.  

Tests and data analysis are still taking place to identify how infectious and severe it actually is.  The Alpha variant (with 17 mutations) quickly became dominant in the UK, closely followed by the dominance of Delta (with three key mutations on the spike protein that binds to host cells).  The smart money's on Omicron becoming dominant within a month of it appearing.  By Christmas.

THE UK GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSE

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland make their own health decisions, but the vast majority of the UK population live in England for which health is controlled by the UK Government.

The new travel restrictions and testing is useful, but arguably too late. Omicron is already in the UK and spreading rapidly.

It remains to be seen whether the UK Government has truly learned the other lessons set out in the Commons report.  There is concern that yet again the response will be 'too little too late', resulting in far greater damage to lives and the economy than taking a stronger initiative earlier.

We can only cross our fingers and toes, and hope.  Hope that Omicron is not as bad as feared.  Hope that the UK Government will take the decisive action needed.

[*]  A FOOTNOTE ON NAMING VIRUSES AND DISEASES

The World Health Organisation says about viruses “It’s only when they change an antigen that’s meaningful that we give it a new name.”  SARS-COV-2 will only change to SARS-COV-3 when there is an especially significant change.  As was the case when the new virus was found to be similar to SARS-COV-1, but with some critical differences.

 A lesser change is called a 'variant', as is Omicron.

Likewise COVID-19 would only become say COVID-21 when the virus has changed enough to be deemed a new species and given a new name.