COVID-19: OMICRON – SO WHAT?

On Friday was the regular weekly presentation by Independent Sage, a group of scientists ‘shadowing’ the SAGE team advising the UK Government.

It’s worth watching the whole thing, with several important messages..  But let’s pick up on one key point – high infection rates have consequences, and Omicron is going to increase case rates.

Omicron is highly infectious (‘transmissible’).  It somewhat ‘escapes’ the protection of being double-jabbed or having had infection from another variant before.  Such immunity gives little protection against mild infection form Omicron, although the risk of severe infection is reduced.  The third jab ‘booster’ is much more effective at avoiding symptomatic infection.

As a result Omicron is likely to be the dominant variant by Christmas, producing at least as many infections as there has been for Delta.  In previous waves each new wave was starting from a low base.  But this time we are already starting from a high base:

• Currently a high rate of infections of the dominant Delta variant:
  
  

• Already a high rate of hospital admissions and consequent deaths

• The Omicron variant is doubling every 2-3 days:
• 8 times in a week
• 64 times in 2 weeks
• 512 times in 3 weeks, etc  

• The total number of COVID-19 cases could look something like this, although Delta might reduce as Omicron takes over:

 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Indications for Omicron are that:

• As two jabs are not enough to prevent basic infection, and some of those cases will result in hospitalisation, hospitalisations will rise to even higher levels than currently.  
• Given the 2-3 weeks delay between infection and hospitalisation, and the exponential growth mentioned above, we cannot wait to see hospitalisations rising before taking action.  Wait that long and hospitals would quickly become swamped by people already infected

HOW DOES THAT AFFECT US?

There are two issues which drive the UK Government actions:

• First is the risk of hospitals being overrun:
• Not enough ventilators and other resources to care for all people badly affected by Covid-19.
• Then not being able to handle the hospitals' other responsibilities, such as for those injured in road traffic accidents, and other hospital work
• Secondly the inevitable result of a high level of deaths

But there is far more to Omicron than that.
 

HOW COVID-19 AFFECTS US AS INDIVIDUALS

Catching COVID-19 is not pleasant.  When someone is infected:

• Many people report a painful and unpleasant infection, worse than influenza and lasting several days longer
• Often losing taste and smell, which can persist for weeks and months
• Developing other Long Covid symptoms which can be painful, and often stops people living a normal life and even stop them working
  
• Risk of passing infection to family, friends and colleagues, and putting the more vulnerable at high risk.  Who wants to infect their granny?
• Continuous fear of being admitted to hospital ,and worse
  
• For anyone self-employed or otherwise not on a guaranteed income, losing income with all the pressure and negative consequences arising
• For school children and students, losing valuable education

 HOW COVID-19 AFFECTS SOCIETY

There are also a whole host of broader consequences, including:

• High levels of Long Covid mean an ongoing strain on GPs and specialist services
• High levels of Long Covid reducing the size and effectiveness of the workforce
• People off ill and self-isolating means disruption to organisations which become under-staffed, such as:
• Schools not having enough teachers to stay open
• Sporting events cancelled, with teams being decimated by illness and self-isolation
  
• Teams in other businesses and organisations being cut down
  
• Postal deliveries seriously delayed, compromising time-sensitive communication such as medical appointments
  
• Supermarkets and the food supply chain unable to keep supermarket shelves stocked. Imagine the public's response to empty shelves!

There are already reports of areas running out of Lateral Flow Tests. [Update 14 December]  The three local pharmacists had no LFTs to offer.  Plus risk of overloading the PCR testing infrastructure

OVERALL

So Omicron is of serious concern.  There's estimates of worst case of some 1 million infections by Christmas:

• Likely to lead to a significant rise in hospitalisations and deaths
• Unwelcome consequences for individuals infected and for society more widely

IS THE UK GOVERNMENT DOING ENOUGH?

Whilst we wait for further evidence of the threat Omicron poses, and how we can mitigate it, is the UK Government doing enough to buy time?

There’s a saying “Hope for the best,  but prepare for the worst.”  Unfortunately there are many in Westminster who only know the first part. Without preparing for the worst, and without taking sufficient action to prevent it.  Just doing the bare minimum.

That some MPs are arguing against the relatively mild Plan B measures is frankly distressing.  Unless they want to do something more effective.

I have long advocated a “NearZero” approach to minimise the consequences of high level of infections as set out above.  That would have reduced the risk of any new ‘escape’ variant, like Omicron, adding to infections levels that are already high.  Yet here we are.  Omicron on top of Delta.

Hang on for the ride, folks!

STOP PRESS: Sunday evening PM Johnson announced an Omicron emergency, with the threat of a 'tidal wave' of infection.  He must have read this blogpost earlier on Sunday!