COVID-19: SO YOU’VE HAD OMICRON, WHAT NOW? (Plus notes if you haven't had it)

Self-isolation almost over?

You’ve had a positive test for COVID-19.  But you haven’t been told whether it is Omicron. 

With COVID-19 cases in the UK now over 100,000 a day, in some areas over 95% Omicron, it's most likely an Omicron infection.  You’ve also read this blogpost, looked in detail, and have concluded that you've had infection from Omicron.  

What does it mean for you after self-isolation ends, having had Omicron?

• How freely can you live your life?
• Should you continue with basic precautions, such as using Lateral Flow Tests and wearing masks?

This depends on your wider circumstances. including:

• Have you had COVID-19 before, some time before Omicron reached your area?
• How many vaccinations have you had?  Most younger people won’t have had chance to have 2 vaccines and a booster.  Many children none.
  
• Are you deemed "clinically vulnerable"?
• Age and other factors that can affect the risks of serious disease

WHAT IF YOU HAVEN'T HAD OMICRON?

There's also a section at the end of this blogpost, relevant if you, your family and friends haven't had Omicron.  Yet.

WHAT DO WE NEED TO CONSIDER?

We need to consider these principles when assessing each person’s risks:

1. Omicron successfully bypasses almost all cases of 2 jabs, and can also partially ‘escape’ the booster, as confirmed by research work by Glasgow University:
   
   
   
   Which is why you caught it, if you are double- or triple-jabbed
   
2. Existing vaccines are very effective at stopping Delta and earlier variants, at least in preventing serious disease, as explained in this BMJ article
3. Having natural immunity from having had Omicron, it is extremely unlikely in principle to be re-infected by Omicron, though it is too early to know for sure.  Similarly unlikely to be reinfected by the same earlier variants.  But reinfection by a different earlier variant is possible.  (Best to regard Omicron and other variants as different diseases, albeit related)
   
4. It is unclear whether infection from Omicron reduces chance of infection from Delta and earlier variants
5. We should expect other variant(s) to appear that are different from both Delta and Omicron, and bypass immunity from vaccines or natural infection. Sooner rather than later, and you may be exposed to it before it becomes public

Let’s consider someone, fictional, who:

• Is older, could do with losing a few pounds, and deemed of ‘medium’ vulnerability by GP
• Triple jabbed, over 2 weeks ago
• Has had Omicron, but not disease from any other COVID-19 variant

RISK ASSESSMENT

That person:

• Is very unlikely to be reinfected by Omicron
• Has high immunity to Delta and earlier variants, and if catch it, symptoms are likely to be mild
• Is open to infection from any future new variant that can bypass vaccines and natural Omicron immunity.  

i.e.

• Very low risk of being re-infected with Omicron
• Very low risk of catching Delta or earlier variants
• Very low risk of catching a new variant before its existence is publicised, when behaviour can be adjusted
• At least until immunity fades
  

In each case with symptoms likely to be light, if COVID is caught.

Whilst risk can never be eliminated, this person has very low risk of catching any form of COVID-19 and for that to result in serious disease.

Life is all about risk, such as crossing a road or cycling down the road. The risk of COVID-19 to life and health is somewhat similar.  At a low enough level that the risk can almost be ignored, provided you take as much care as crossing the road or cycling..  

That means generally going about life as before the pandemic, attending any event, going to work, and.. living life ‘free’.  At least until the next nasty variant appears.

But there are people who ought to take more care:

• Those who are clinically vulnerable. It is up to them to assess their own risk/reward balance for specific situations, and what risk is worth taking.
• Those who have not been fully booster-vaxed, including children
  

WHAT ABOUT ONGOING PRECAUTIONS?

As there is a risk of catching COVID-19, and potentially passing disease on to other people, continuation of basic precautions is sensible.  This is mainly for protection of others, and should be regarded as a civic duty:

• Taking a Lateral Flow Test before prolonged contact with other people, if necessary daily
• As far as possible meet in outside or well-ventilated areas
• Wearing masks on public transport and other places where you could easily pass infection to others.  Pubs and restaurants where food and drink is consumed need to be a practical exception.
  
• Other basic precautions, such as washing hands
  

WHAT ABOUT CATCHING OMICRON DELIBERATELY?

If you, friends or family haven’t had Omicron, is it worth catching it deliberately?  Going to a 'COVID party', like 'chicken pox parties' perhaps.

In most cases, it looks like Omicron infection is milder than Delta.  But:

• It’s too early to tell how serious infection from Omicron is going to be, and how common especially in people who are inherently more vulnerable
• It’s too early to tell how bad LongCovid is going to be.  Probably more common than with earlier variants, due to the speed it can spread around the body to damage other susceptible organs

So no, it is unwise to atttempt to catch Omicron deliberately.  

But take a few more risks?  Frankly that’s how I caught it, when it was raining and I had the choice of sitting indoors in the pub or going home.  Knowing it was a risk to sit indoors, but feeling I was going to catch Omicron some time anyway, and knowing I had the protection of being triple vaxed against Delta.  Likewise taking risks is up to you.
 

IN CONCLUSION

If you've had Omicron:

• If you're triple vaxed, and not highly vulnerable, you may consider the risk of a further serious COVID-19 infection to be low enough to get back to living life 'normally'. Albeit taking basic precautions, pricipally to protect others
  
• But not fully vaxed, and/or vulnerable, continue to take care!

If you haven't had Omicron:

• Don't catch it deliberately
• But perhaps be willing to take a few more risks 

 

UPDATE 4 JANUARY 

New Year events provided the opportunity to test the 'live life normally' freedom proposition.  Here's what happened.