“Due to a number of staff members testing positive for Covid, we have had to take the tough decision to close this coming weekend (17th-19th). Keep an eye here and our website for updates re Xmas and New Year opening”
Then there's a couple who work at Sainsburys and in NHS admin who are off work unwell, with positive Lateral Flow Tests. The chances are that their colleagues also caught the disease, and may well be off work by now.
People with COVID-19 symptoms typically feel too unwell to work for several days. In any case they legally need to self-isolate for at least 10 days (maybe being reduced to 7 days). From the NHS website, which provides further details:
This means that it is easy for a significant number of people in a work team to be off work simultaneously. Like the pub, having to close down. That's in every business and organisation that relies on staff working on-premise. Society is being disrupted already this week:
- Trains being cancelled for lack of staff
- Top-flight football matches being cancelled for lack of players, despite the large size of squads
- Theatre shows having to be cancelled as members the cast and crew go down with Covid
So whilst the Government is right to worry
about hospitalisation rates, and the risk of the NHS being overrun, there is a
bigger issue. Businesses and organisations closing down. Vital ones.
How long will it be before a supermarket branch needs to close? Or any other part of the food supply chain? Then imagine the panic. Not just loo rolls, not just petrol, but actual food.
The risk inevitably increases as cases of Omicron and Delta continue to grow. It becomes highly likely that key organisations, such as supermarkets, will be forced to close. Potentially before the NHS is overrun. Imagine.
What are the chances of food shortages? Clearly not now zero. Given the severity of the consequences, we can't ignore the risk.
WHAT WE CAN DO FOR OURSELVES
What should we do individually to cover the risk of supermarkets and other essential suppliers having to close temporarily for 10 days or so? Simply, it’s worth having around 2 weeks’ supply of food, water and other essentials on hand. That also covers the risk of having to self-isolate for 10 days or so:
Food: A mixture of fresh, tinned and frozen foods. Topped up every day or two.£7 for 18 litres - Water: Around 18 litres for each person. It's worth realising that normal supply to our taps is dependent on water company staff, electricity, treatment chemicals and a host of other essentials. Any one aspect missing could mean no water supply. Is getting in bottled water over the top? Maybe. But that much bottled water is a cheap, convenient way to sleep easy.
- Other essentials: Such as medicines and toiletries
IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY
“Hope for the best. But prepare for the worst” is an old saying. It is essential to ensure the worst cannot happen, such as food shortages.
Current restrictions aren’t working, Omicron is bypassing vaccines, and also re-infecting those who have already had Covid-19. So Covid vaccination certificates are not worth the app they are written on.
Nor do we know for sure how effective Lateral Flow Tests are with Omicron. Initial indications are good, but there's the same sensitivity issue as Delta. With Delta, one in five positive cases would be missed, as “Sensitivity” is only around 80%, especially in the early stages of infection. People out and about not knowing they are infectious, spreading the virus.
It pains me to say it, but given the risk of food shortages, there is really only one option that makes sense. An immediate 3-week ‘circuit break’ lockdown, as explained here. Only essential travel. Whilst schools are off for the Christmas holidays.
To wait risks being too late, with the consequence of widespread societal disruption.
Yet this “too little too late” Government has not learned from experience, and has announced it is trying to wait until after Christmas. With food supplies at risk, is waiting sensible?
No comments:
Post a Comment