Nearly all other areas of England are facing increased infection rates, with the distinct possibility of moving up to tier 3 after Christmas. Especially as small multi-household meetings are being de-criminalised over 5 days at Christmas.
The R number in the UK is again estimated to be over 1, reflecting rising infection rates.
Hospitals may not be quite as full with critical patients as this time in previous years, but the risk of many more critical patients is far higher. That would overrun hospitals making it difficult to treat COVID patients, let alone others. It's a risk we cannot take. Tough action is unavoidable.
Wales has already announced a lockdown straight after Christmas, for a minimum of three weeks. Northern Ireland also, but initially longer.
Vaccination of older and vulnerable people and carers has started. But with so many millions of people involved, it will take at least until Easter 2021 until most of these people are vaccinated and a second phase of vaccination started for younger people.
Now there is a new strain of the virus behind COVID-19 that could well be more infectious, if not more dangerous.
How are we going to get through the remaining months of winter? Isn't another lockdown inevitable in England? Shouldn't we take greater control of how and when this happens?
THE IMPORTANCE OF SCHOOLS AND HIGHER EDUCATION
There is no doubt that education is important. But senior schools in particular are really struggling to keep year groups open, with some even in tier 2 experiencing 40% or more of staff off ill or isolating. The disruption to pupils' education, and to parents and their employers, together with rising infection levels in many parts, means the tier system is not working for schools.
COVID-19 is very infectious, and only the harshest restrictions seem to avoid infection rates rising. A teachers' representative in Wales has said "Covid-19 transmission in schools is a major factor in continuing the spread of the virus".
Sweden has generally adopted a low-restriction strategy. But Sweden has now realised that high schools for over 16s need to move to online teaching, and be physically closed, alongside reducing the gatherings limit from 50 to 8 people.
In England the new rapid testing is to be implemented, and that year groups should stagger their return to school in January. But teachers' representatives say that is too early to have testing in place.
Higher education is also an issue, with many students moving around the country for the start of term. Infection rates amongst students rose markedly back in September when this last term started, and will again be inevitable unless a far lower number return un-infected. There's then a significant risk for lecturers, as well as the students themselves.
PROPOSAL
Wouldn't it be best to minimise disruption to education, minimise the incidence of death and LongCOVID, and protect hospitals from becoming overrun? It looks like a lockdown in the new year is inevitable.
The Government should take control and reduce infection rates as low as possible as soon as possible. For the minimum disruption to education, and the chance to get rapid testing organised.
A very sharp FireBreak of a full three weeks should be considered immediately after Christmas, starting 28 December until at least 18 January. Everything except the absolutely vital remaining closed. "Stay at home" being the mantra again.
Nobody likes lockdowns, least of all me. We all know the nasty economic and life 'side-effects'. But holding a lockdown before schools and universities return seems to be the path to least disruption and best education. Best for lives and livelihoods all round.
Here's the scientific rationale for three weeks and how sharp a FireBreak should be.
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