30 December 2020

COVID-19: TIER 4 versus FIREBREAK

Over the last few weeks I have suggested that the Government should get on top of the virus to drive down infection rates to #NearZero.  Leveraging the reproductive lifecycle of the virus, by a tough three-week Firebreak.  

That would allow the economy to thereafter be more open, schools not to be so commonly disrupted, and deaths and LongCOVID to be minimised.  We knew that when temperatures dropped as autumn changed into winter, that would favour transmission of the virus.  Then infection rates could be far better controlled.   Health producing wealth.

All the more important now a new variant is spreading rapidly.

I wasn't the only one.  The IndependentSAGE group have been even more ambitious in promoting the idea of ZeroCOVID, for the same reason. Here is Sir David King back in July, explaining the idea.

The Government ignored that advice.  

Sir David was back on the BBC this morning recommending an immediate lockdown, with schools closed.  Today the Government avoided going that far.  Instead putting over 78% of people in England into tier 4, and only delaying some schools going back.

Alternatively a Firebreak could be minimised to three weeks by making it as tough as possible, whilst recognising the community transmission that involves schools. Here is a comparison of the tough FireBreak proposal with what the Government has implemented today as tier 4:

An opportunity missed today.  Too little, too late, again.  Inevitably prolonging the agony of tier 4 restrictions.

 



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