COVID-19: WITH SO MANY IN TIERS 3 AND 4, WHY NOT A FULL FIREBREAK?

London on the left

Today Matt Hancock announced that more areas would be going up into tier 2, 3 or 4 from Boxing Day.  That means according to the BBC, "taking the total number of people under the toughest restrictions to 24 million, or 43% of the population of England; a further 24.8 million will be in tier three."  A total of nearly 90% of the population.

Nearly the whole country in tiers 3 or 4.

He also indicated that it was worth getting ahead of the virus, by early action.  The questions he was asked included:

• As the new more transmissible variant will likely spread further around the country, why then not get ahead by putting the whole country into tier 4 or full lockdown?  His answer was to be "proportionate".  But isn't this again too little, too late?
  
• What about delaying schools returning in January?  Initially ducking the question, he indicated sticking to the existing phased return, which would be supported by testing
  

 

THE IMPACT OF RESTRICTIONS

It is clear that severe restrictions have major, important and painful side-effects, badly affecting lives and livelihoods  They should only be used as last resort to drive down infection rates:

• To avoid health service being overrun, when patients would be turned away.  That is the Government's overriding objective, it seems
• And preferably to let businesses re-open.  Just as important, but seemingly overlooked
  

Then with any restrictions for as short a time as possible.  

To be short, that means restrictions as tough as possible.  That means closing schools, not just to avoid transmission between schoolchildren.  It's to prevent transmission between the adults involved, that is teachers and other staff and, for younger children, parents at the school gates.  Stopping students travelling across the country to universities too. 

If we are to get ahead of this new variant, that does mean national restrictions.  Not just in England but across the whole of Great Britain, and preferably the whole British Isles including Ireland and Northern Ireland. 

 

THE SURVEY

I had therefore proposed  "We need to stamp down hard on [the new COVID-19 variant] with a short but very tough FireBreak straight after Christmas", as set out in more detail here.  Effectively tier 5.

Over the last two days I have been asking in a Twitter poll whether people agree or otherwise with the proposal.  Given I invited known Lockdown Sceptics and people generally, I am amazed with the result of 3 to 1 in favour of the proposal:

Whilst this is not a proper randomised survey across all demographics, the stark result can perhaps be regarded as 'representative' of people's views.  The result certainly suggests there would be more widespread support for tough measures after Christmas.  More than I had anticipated.

The written comments in support, including from specialist scientists, far outnumbered those against.  The topics were of three types, indicating the FireBreak needs to be toughest:

1. No time to lose.  Do the Firebreak before Christmas.  But realistically people and businesses need at least a little notice, and Boxing Day is the earliest.  
2. Make it tougher, with schools and universities closed.  That is in any case a key aspect of the proposal, to keep them closed until 18 January.  Especially given some new evidence about how this new variant impacts schoolchildren.  Adopting the toughest restrictions possible
   
3. Make it longer.  However:

• The idea is that the theory and past experience is that when restrictions are tough, most of the reduction in cases is in the first three weeks
• We need to get the economy open, so keep the FireBreak as short as possible.  That is three weeks.
  

STOP PRESS:  Just heard of a friend's 3 year old sent home from Nursery because another 3yo has tested positive.  The friend, his wife and their 3yo have all tested positive, and started to display symptoms.  In all likelihood:

• The virus has passed from 3yo to 3yo
• Then from the 3yo to the parents
  

So clearly important to keep schools closed, even for the youngest pupils, if a FireBreak is to work.

 

FINANCIAL SUPPORT

There is one other significant issue, which is financial support for individuals and businesses during the FireBreak.  In particular:

• An estimated 3 million self-employed who have not been eligible for Government support, other than Universal Credit, often referred to as the #Excluded
  
• The other self-employed whose SEISS3 payment is expected to cover January, but were paid nothing for September and October.  This needs to be rectified promptly.
  

 

THE PROPOSAL

So with proper financial support, we need a very intense FireBreak straight after Christmas, with schools, universities and all but vital workplaces not going back until 18 January.  It has to be as tough as possible.  "Stay at Home".

In my view that is the only of getting infection rates down to a level that gets on top of the virus.  That would allow schools and universities to stay open afterwards, plus as much of the economy to re-open as possible through the winter.  Best for lives and livelihoods.

What's your view?