Some say ‘Health is Wealth’, a principle that serves us well, both personally and as a population. Yet the Government is prepared to see COVID-19 cases rise to some 100,000 per day. That will be amongst four groups:
- Double-vaccinated adults, mainly older and more vulnerable people with AstraZeneca
- Single-vaccinated adults, mainly younger people with Pfizer
- Unvaccinated adults
- Unvaccinated children
We know from PHE (Public Health England) research on the now-dominant Delta variant that vaccines are good, but still leave significant scope for illness and transmission for vaccinated people. Compared to being unvaccinated, 1 in 20 or more will still need hospitalisation, some of whom will die:
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT
The high case rates predicted mean, for the economy:
- We are already seeing serious disruption for businesses and the NHS, where the numbers of staff off ill or self-isolating is rising dramatically.
- An increasing number of family businesses will need to close to self-isolate, probably repeatedly when their customers are tested positive for the virus
- Many people will prefer to avoid indoor spaces, such as shops, theatres and public transport. Staying at home, as imprisonment rather than freedom
There are calls to remove the need for people to self-isolate if double-vaccinated. But this ignores the chances for "symptoms" above.
Walking through a formerly popular area of the City on Friday evening around 10.30pm, there were far fewer people on the street, and the front section of one usually busy pub was empty. Whether that was people ill or self-isolating, or simply avoiding mixing with strangers, is unclear. When infection rates rise further, this problem can only get worse.
That disruption hardly helps the economy, even if more businesses can open.
The Government appears to be betting on the third wave and this disruption being short-lived. Banking on the population reaching ‘hybrid immunity’ through a combination of vaccines and infection in a matter of weeks. The latter being the only possibility for children, who can pass infection to adults in their household.
In terms of disruption, we may also find that foreign countries will be less inclined to accept visitors from the UK, even where travellers are double-vaccinated. That impacts business travellers as well as tourists, and would of course impact travel companies.
FROM A HEALTHCARE PERSPECTIVE
From a personal perspective, high case rates increase the possibility of illness, even for the vaccinated. Anyone falling ill will find:
- A very unpleasant initial illness, as double-vaccinated Andrew Marr of the BBC has found
- Possibility of long, disruptive and unpleasant hospital treatment
- Risk of Long Covid. The Kings College ZOE study suggests of those people developing symptoms, “around one in seven had symptoms lasting for at least 4 weeks, with around one in 20 staying ill for 8 weeks and one in fifty suffering for longer than 12 weeks”. The ONS (Office for National Statistics) estimates that already some 178,000 people have had their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities "limited a lot"
- Oh, and the possibility of death. And the risk of hospitals being overwhelmed.
Furthermore, scientists say that letting infection ‘let rip’ in a highly vaccinated population increases the risk of a new variant that escapes the vaccine. That is hardly the gift the UK wants to give the world, let alone the impact on our own population.
BALANCING PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ECONOMY
So allowing high case rates is bad news both in terms of public health and the economy. It would be foolish to allow case rates to rise unchecked by completely removing all restrictions and mitigations, such as face coverings, on 19 July. That's what the government has indicated. That would backfire on the economy, as well as being a public health disaster.
We all want to get back to 'normal'. But at a sensible pace. With an announcement due on Monday 12 July, we’ll soon see if the Government has seen sense and modified its approach.
No comments:
Post a Comment