These are average figures, across all types of vaccines. So let’s look at the vaccine effectiveness for people in four groups, taking into account the specific vaccines that have been in use:
- The clinically vulnerable, and others deemed high risk
- Adults at medium risk
- Adults at low risk, including many younger adults
- Children
The figures shown are broadly consistent with the figures published by PHE (Public Health England) that separate out Pfizer and AstraZeneca for Delta:
These percentages mean:
- Older adults, typically double-vaccinated with AstraZeneca, still have a notable risk of serious infection, albeit substantially reduced. There is also a 1 in 3 risk (33%) of catching the disease and passing it on, compared to being unvaccinated
- Younger adults, typically single-vaccinated so far with Pfizer, also have a similar risk of serious infection. But have double the risk, 2 in 3 (64%), of catching the disease and passing it on, compared to being unvaccinated
- Unvaccinated adults have no direct extra protection
- Likewise children, who have not been vaccinated
No wonder then that cases of the highly transmissible Delta variant are rising rapidly, and are expected to continue to rise to a peak of some 100,000 new cases a day.
IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH COVID RATES FOR LONG COVID
Whilst it is too early to assess the impact of the Delta variant on longer-term symptoms, Long Covid, research by Kings College ZOE for earlier variants suggests:
“around one in seven who had symptoms lasting for at least 4 weeks, with around one in twenty staying ill for 8 weeks and one in fifty suffering for longer than 12 weeks”
This impacts all ages, including younger adults and children. More women than men. The ONS recently reported that already some 178,000 people have had their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities "limited a lot". Clearly this number will rise substantially with the rise in new cases.
BBC's Panorama broadcast a new programme tonight, Monday 12 July, which will give you an insight into the scale, severity and potential causes of Long Covid.
It was good to hear Sajid Javid acknowledge the problem in Westminster today. Yet there was no mention of Long Covid by the speakers at the PM’s press conference. Indeed SAGE mysteriously does not include Long Covid in its modelling, nor hitherto in formal advice to Government.
There is one small mention in the latest SAGE meeting minutes for 7 July, as a noted consequence of high case rates.
WHAT DO HIGH CASE RATES MEAN TO THOSE AT HIGH RISK?
All the figures above are averages across age, gender and other factors. One such factor is risk level, especially those at high risk:
- Inherently more likely to catch the disease
- So more likely to need hospitalisation, and then potentially die
- More likely to suffer from Long Covid
With so many people in the community catching the disease and becoming infectious once restrictions are removed, the risk to the clinically vulnerable and others at high risk is significant. Some 3.8 milion people are regarded as "Extremely Clinically Vulnerable" (CEV).
Rather than “Freedom Day” om 19 July, high case rates will mean these many people will again need to self-isolate for extensive periods. Yet even that is not effective for those with children in their households.
WHAT DO HIGH CASE RATES MEAN TO THOSE AT MEDIUM RISK?
The same applies to those advised by their GPs to be at medium risk. Whilst complete self-isolation may not be necessary, the wise will avoid places where face-coverings will no longer be required, such as public transport and shops. That is a significant restriction on their freedoms.
The problem is that it only takes one person to be unknowingly (or knowingly) infectious, and not wear a mask, for those around them to catch the disease. Why mask wearing should remain compulsory in such situations.
WHAT DO HIGH CASE RATES MEAN TO THOSE AT LOW RISK?
Low risk does not mean ‘no risk’. In particular it is too early to assess the risk of serious Long Covid symptoms.
The extra transmissibility of the Delta variant could well mean it spreads around the body via the bloodstream more easily to cause organ damage. Heart, brain and other organs are all at risk, given they have the same ACE2 receptor on cells which the virus uses to attack the lungs.
Young people should consider this risk seriously, especially whilst only single-vaccinated.
WHAT DO HIGH CASE RATES MEAN TO CHILDREN?
Hospitalisation and death of children is very low, certainly by comparison to other causes of death.
But they too can suffer from Long Covid, as the Long Covid Kids group testifies. There is also a child in the Panorama programme mentioned above.
It is also acknowledged that children can pass on the infection to adults, even if the child is not displaying symptoms.
The risk is likely to be reduced during the summer holidays, But once the schools are back in September, with many mitigations in schools withdrawn, infections in children are likely to rise substantially. With an impact on their families and the wider community.
THE IMPLICATIONS
Individuals should therefore seriously consider what activities they are prepared to undertake, whoever they are. 19 July for many will not be ‘Freedom Day’. Quite the opposite for many.
The PM and scientific advisors stressed the need to relax restrictions slowly. Yet that is being rushed. The impact on individuals and their mental health can be devastating. Let alone the impact on the NHS for consultations, testing and treatments for Long Covid, as well as hospitalisations.
Specifically on face coverings, people who are not using one are likely to be taking other risks too, and so more likely to be infectious. There only needs to be one such person in a shop, venue or public transport for there to be a super-spreader event. Just like speed limits to protect the public, it is appropriate to keep face coverings and some other compulsory restrictions in place for some time longer.
No comments:
Post a Comment