COVID-19: STRAP IN FOR HIGH CASE RATES

Sir Patrick

In the press conference this evening, Monday 19 July, a presentation was made by the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance.

In this presentation (starting 7min55s) he set out five issues with the high case rates. These are already some 50,000 confirmed cases per day, almost as many as the peak in March.  Expected to rise further to 100,000 a day or more, which means, as he said in speech marks:

• “Translates into hospitalisations and deaths”, albeit at lower levels than before the vaccination programme.  But with hospitalisations expected to reach some “1000 a day or quite a bit higher”. 

• “Increased risk of long-term complications, so-called Long Covid”.  The first time this set of often serious conditions has been acknowledged in such a pre-prepared presentation?  Albeit without details or projected numbers.
  

• Risk of new variants.  But not mentioning the risk highlighted by international scientists of an ‘escape variant' that reduces the effectiveness of the vaccines.

• “High number of people off work”.  See discussion below.

• “Testing becomes very stretched”

In the Q&A session, there were several further issues highlighted:

• Transmissibility.  The Delta variant, which is now most prevalent, is more transmissible than the Alpha variant that was most prevalent in the previous wave.  Delta spreading as if vaccines hadn't been used, such that a graphic showed cases rising at the same rate as in January-March:

• Vaccines are not fully effective.  So now "60% of people hospitalised are un-vaccinated" (not "60% double-vaccinated", as he corrected later). Meaning 40% were vaccinated once or twice.
  

• Transmission.  Can still catch and pass on virus if double-vaccinated, as we’ve seen with Chancellor Sajid Javid and the BBC’s Andrew Marr

• The unvaccinated.  Younger adults are less keen to be vaccinated, with some "3 million" not yet having their first vaccine.  Young adults are those most likely to take advantage of the latest easings, such as attending night clubs.  Which makes super-spreader events likely, as has been found in Holland and elsewhere.  

• Tracing.  Sir Patrick (34min15s) admitted that the ‘Trace’ aspect of Test and Trace works well at low infection rates, but becomes “increasingly difficult” as rates rise 

This means for you and your family: 

• Hospitals overrun?  There is no guarantee that hospitals won’t be over-run without re-establishing restrictions.  Indeed hospitalisations could reach “scary numbers” according to Prof Chris Whitty recently.

• NHS increasingly stretched.  Hospitalisations and Long Covid patients will stretch various parts of the NHS, and make it more difficult to treat and catch up on your other health issues. 

• Education disrupted.  The peak of cases is modelled as being in mid or late August.  So it would still be high when schools go back in early September, closely followed by universities and colleges which would provide “added pressure” on case rates.  Education from September would therefore get disrupted, by students being off ill.  Even with ‘bubbles’ no longer in place.

Today it was announced that those youngsters approaching 18 can be vaccinated over the summer, ready for younger A level students to be ready for higher education.  But only a relatively few school-children will be vaccinated, providing the vast majority with no protection from catching and spreading infection once they are back at school.

• Millions worried.  The 3.8 million people who are 'Clinically Extremely Vulnerable' (CEV) are going to have to self-isolate again.  Plus millions also concerned about spending any time indoors with strangers, be that in shops, hospitality venues or entertainment venues.  Undermining any economic bounce-back, as witnessed by the drop in stock markets.

• Another lockdown.  There is a risk of restrictions needing to be re-imposed in the autumn, if not earlier.
  

HIGH NUMBER OF PEOPLE OFF WORK

Currently there is concern that the NHS Covid app is ’pinging’ an increasing number of people, asking them to self-isolate.

The Government is sticking to double-vaccinated adults having to self-isolate, until 16 August when there will be regular testing instead. In the meantime, today it was announced that certain critical workers will be able to adopt the approach immediately, but only to go to work.

But pings are only part of the problem.  High case rates mean:

• A large number of people off ill or self-isolating after a positive test
• Plus their families and other close contacts.

Some businesses are already having to close, such as some Iceland shops and Greene King pubs.  As are small family businesses.  This problem will only get worse, app or not.  Reducing any improvement in the economy, and impacting livelihoods of many of those affected.

Update:  Twelve members of the Oxford United first team squad have tested positive or are self-isolating.   Imagine every organisation being prone to such disruption, sooner or later!

THE INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

High case rates also means that other countries will increasingly bar visitors from Britain, be they tourists or business people.  

Indeed the international community is looking at England and the UK in horror.  

They will never forgive this country should an ‘escape variant’ arise that bypasses vaccines.  High case rates in a highly-vaccinated population provides just the right conditions to allow an escape variant to arise.  That will inevitably spread to put the whole world back to square one.

IS THE GOVERNMENT RIGHT TO LET INFECTION RATES RISE SO HIGH?

The disruption to employers, livelihoods and education is bad news.  Let alone the increase in long-term illness and deaths.

On top of which is creating the conditions for an ‘escape variant’ to arise.  This is unacceptable.

So no, allowing such high case rates is not right.  Indeed reckless.  For the economy and the world’s health.