COVID-19: A REACTION TO DOWNING STREET PRESS BRIEFING 4JAN22

This afternoon PM Johnson held a press conference, flanked by his most senior scientific advisors, Professor Sir Chris Whitty and Sit Patrick Vallance.

It was confirmed that Plan B would continue, and no further disease mitigations (restrictions) were anticipated.  Though this is kept under review.

The emphasis of the Government's strategy is to ask everyone to get boosted, or get their first jabs if not done already.  This is a good idea.  From a personal perspective:

• The Booster probably reduced the impact of my recent Omicron infection.  A negative LFT just 4 days after infection, unlikely to still be infectious
  
• Conversely a friend hadn't had her booster, and has just been badly ill for two weeks with Delta symptoms
  

The presentations and answers were much as anticipated.  But one matter to highlight.  Sir Patrick said that in London, for example, this has so far been an illness primarily amongst younger people. "As it moves up the age range, you'd expect to see more hospitalisations. Don't know for sure how that is going to manifest, and what degree of disease."

In other words hospitalisations and use of ICUs to date is not representative of the whole population, and would be expected to get worse.  When it will peak for the older age groups, and at what level, cannot yet be predicted any more accurately than it being in the next few weeks.

POST-PRESSER COMMENTS

Two key points emerged in BBC's coverage afterwards:

• Ione Wells spoke about the adverse impact that Omicron is having on staff shortages. That the Government officers are worrying not just about the NHS, but also the risk for the "food supply chain" amongst other essential services. Indeed 100,000 workers in England, "from food processing to transport to Border Force", will have to test every day they are working from 10 January.  

   

  The first I've heard or seen mention of food supply risks, despite highlighting them two weeks ago.  Why has nobody else in the media seen this coming?

   
• Nick Triggle pointed out that the official forecast modelling by Warwick University concluded this:
  
  In other words the levels of infection are effectively baked in.  If essential services begin to get closed down, or hospitals get overrun, it is effectively too late to do anything about it.
  

This 'too little, too late' government is again too late.  Taking risks that nobody sensible would contemplate.  'Hope for the best, prepare for the worst' is not a concept this Government understands. Let's hope it is not that bad.  But sadly, experience with Covid says outcomes are always at the worse end of expectations.