COVID-19: HOW MUCH HAS JAVID ACTUALLY REDUCED THE ISOLATION PERIOD?

Today, 13 January 2022, Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced a reduction of the self-isolation period nominally from 7 days to 5 days.  That is subject to two consecutive negative daily Lateral Flow Tests and not having a temperature  A reduction of 2 days you might think. Really?

Part of my usual professional role is to examine the rules applicable to a situation and optimise the way an organisation can operate better within those rules.  This requires understanding the rules in detail, and then thinking of how to take advantage.  Much like Formula 1 teams leverage their regulations, but without pushing the limits quite as hard.

SO WHAT'S HAPPENED?

Here we looked at the change from the 10 Days rules to the 7 Days rule. just before Christmas The definitions changed, which effectively reduced the isolation period by 4 days rather than 3, being the combination of:

• 3 days change from nominally 10 days to 7 days
  
• Being able to exit isolation on day 7 rather than waiting until day 8.  The NHS website clearly said "on or after" Day 7)
  

The new 5 Days rules change the definition, such that you have to wait until day 6.  Only 1 day earlier than under the 7 Days rules.

OMICRON OR DELTA?

Delta symptoms are the now 'classic' ones listed on the NHS website, including a continuous cough,  loss of teste/smell, and a high temperature.

Omicron is effectively a 'cousin' of Delta, with very different symptoms and faster infection.  The symptom I noticed the day before my first positive LFT was a crackly voice, which is Omicron not Delta.  The day after the date I believe I was infected.

It takes longer to recover from Delta, and often requires the full 10 days in isolation.  The shorter isolation period is primarily relevant for Omicron.  The need for two consecutive negeative LFTs covers the possibility of Delta or another earlier variant.

SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN OVERALL?

Here's a summary of the three sets of rules:

Note that for the 10 Days rule, which applies if cannot produce two negative LFTs, the NHS says that isolation ends at 2359 hrs on day 10.  Hence not being able to get out and about until early on day 11.

 The overall result is as follows:

• The Day5 rule is a misnomer.  It's 5 full days, so effectively release from isolation is on Day 6
  
• Which is only one day earlier than under the 7 Days rules
  

Furthermore, if you don't appreciate that Omicron has different symptoms, you will potentially stay in isolation a day longer than you need to.  That's the same under either the 5 Days or 7 Days rule sets.

Here it is argued that it is safe to bring exit from isolation 2 days earlier than under the 7 Days rules, subject to negative LFTs and low temperature.  That would apply for those infected by Omicron.  Delta will usually mean longer isolation.

Yet Javid has missed this trick, only making half the change that would have been feasible.  Another day could have been cut from the isolation period, subject to LFT and temperature checks.  Huh?  

The worry is that people get out into the community whilst still infectious.  The issue is primarily a communication one:

• So far the Government has been very unclear as to when exactly people can leave isolation.  This new rule would be better called the 6 Days rule.  Too late?
• People shouldn't think leaving isolation on Day 5 or 6 is automatic.  It's 10 days unless the specific conditions are met.