COVID-19: THE WELSH FIREBREAK. WHY DIDN'T ENGLAND FOLLOW SUIT?

18 November: Data updated 

Wales started a 17-day lockdown a day before half term was due to start, on Friday 23 October, which covered three weekends but only two working weeks.  That finished on this last Sunday 8 November, with new 'intermediate' regulations put in place starting Monday 9th.  Organised groups of 15 indoors and 30 outdoors are permitted, re-opening many sports and social activities, though pubs are only groups of 4 and need to close at 10pm.

As symptoms tend to show about 5 days after infection, we can now begin to see the impact of the FireBreak in the symptoms statistics for Wales:

• Test and Trace (data to 14 November)
  
• The Kings College ZOE app (data only to 9 November)

A more complete picture will be available in days to come.

TEST AND TRACE STATISTICS

South Wales is showing a substantial improvement in infection rates since end October, a few days after the FireBreak started and carrying on a few days after it finished.  That is because there is a time lag between contracting the disease and displaying symptoms to get tested.  This trend is similar to other parts of Wales.  Clearly showing the effect of the FireBreak compared to previous measures:

KINGS COLLEGE ZOE APP

The ZOE statistics to 9 November also show a substantial reduction in infection rate since late October.

SO WHY DIDN'T ENGLAND FOLLOW THE LEAD FROM WALES?

England had moved areas with high infection rates to Tier 3 restrictions, and the improvement in infection rates was already showing in ZOE data by 9 November.

It had been hoped that would be enough for England, so did not follow the Welsh lead.  There may have also been a political factor, in that Wales has a Labour-led Government, and Labour were also suggesting a FireBreak for England.

However England then went into a 4-week 'lockdown lite' on Thursday 5 November.  It is too early to see the impact on symptoms, but unlikely to be as effective as the Wales FireBreak.

England's 'Hope for the best' strategy hasn't worked.  We need to grasp:

• The best way to get the economy open is to get infection rates down to #NearZero
• That also minimises deaths and incidence of LongCOVID, whislt allowng life generally to get back to near-normal
• A short sharp FireBreak is the best way to get infection rates down.  Though preferably a full 3 weeks to get rates right down, tighter than in Wales, because of the natural lifecycle of the virus
• FireBreaks repeated if necessary, preferably in conjunction with half terms to minimise lost schooling, given vaccines and better testing are some months away, earliest Spring 2021
  

Then England could benefit like this: