COVID-19: WHATEVER'S HAPPENED TO OPENING THE ECONOMY?

Press briefing 26 Nov

Yesterday the whole of England was proposed to be put into the "High" or "Very High" tiers of measures from next Wednesday 2 December.  The only exceptions being three areas of Isle of Wight, Cornwall and Isles of Scilly which nonetheless will have the Tier1 "Medium" restrictions.

The Government spoke of two objectives last night:

• Avoiding the NHS being overrun
• Keeping schools open

But whatever happened to re-opening the economy?  Only a little relaxation of the lockdown restrictions come Wednesday.  No wonder so many Tory MPs are up in arms!

On the NHS, listening to the scientists at the press briefing yesterday, it was explained that tiers 1 and 2 of the previous tier system had not been tough enough to set the right foundation to avoid strain on the NHS as we go into the winter.  The colder weather will benefit transmission of COVID-19.  Having looked at the available stats, I agree.  But then the 27-day "lockdown 2" hasn't done enough either.  Which is why the proposed tough restrictions will still need to be in place to save the NHS from being overrun:

• To ensure all COVID-19 patients can be treated
• Avoid other treatments being curtailed
  

On schools, PM Johnson answered a question with it was important to keep schools open.  But aren't many schools having to close or send pupils home because of outbreaks in their school?  Independent SAGE are reporting more than one in five senior school children were off school last week.  Which is another reason why it is not an option to let infections rise, as that would mean more pupils having their education disrupted.  With the knock-on effect on their parents having to take time off work.

So relaxing restrictions isn't an option.  Indeed the lower the infection rate:

• The lower the death toll from COVID-19
  
• The lower the incidence of LongCOVID.  The King's College ZOE study has concluded that 1 in 20 people, of all ages including children, suffer COVID-19 symptoms for 8 weeks of more, even when they haven't been seriously ill enough to have been hospitalised.  Partly due to the lethargy that follows any serious illness, but also because once the virus gets into the bloodstream it can cause organ damage around the body, including the brain.  
• Even more people suffering for over 4 weeks, after the initial unpleasant illness often lasting two weeks, compared to flu of a couple of days
  

In that knowledge, COVID-19 is a nasty disease that nobody should want to catch, of any age.

 

HOW CAN THE ECONOMY BE OPENED?

Countries like China, Hong Kong and New Zealand have been able to re-open their economies by getting infection rates down to very low levels and sometimes total elimination.  As a  result death rates have also been very low too.

Whilst cultural and geographic differences have made it easier for these countries than Europe, with elimination almost impossible here, the objective must be to get infection rates down to #NearZero.  Hence the hope for vaccines, once they are in widespread use.  The benefits are then:

How do we get to #NearZero before vaccines?

THE SCIENTIFIC CAVALRY - TESTING

Back in early August I reviewed the effectiveness of the RT-PCR tests, new test in development and NHS Test and Trace.  Conclusions included:

• We need alternative ‘Got it’ tests that are:
  

• Simpler / Quicker / Cheaper
• Preferably more reliable, by not being based on swabbing
• Yet clearly identify all variants of SARS-COV-2 without counting other coronaviruses 
• Can be used to test everyone, whether or not they are displaying symptoms, as they can be infectious
  

• People should be given practical and financial support to self-isolate, otherwise many people will not be able to afford to take time off work, especially if they are not displaying symptoms
  

It's great to see the pilot in Liverpool of the new "Lateral Flow Tests" .  We were hearing how they are helping to drive down infection rates in Liverpool, which have helped the area be in tier 2 next month instead of tier 3.  Other tests coming through will be even cheaper and effective.  But development and trials  take time.

In the meantime the journalist from Liverpool was bemoaning at the press briefing that people were not coming forward for testing as they would not get adequate support for themselves and their household should the test prove positive.  When will the Government realise that support is so important for testing to be effective?

More widespread testing will help drive down the virus, but without adequate self-isolation support, it won't have as much effect as it could.  Unlikely to get to #NearZero.

THE SCIENTIFIC CAVALRY - VACCINES

Whilst testing is very useful in driving down infections, it is recognised that it is vaccines that will allow infection rates to become #NearZero, as is the case for flu.  PM Johnson said last night "get through this winter, suppress this virus until vaccines come to our aid".  #NearZero would allow the economy to open, and life on general to get back to normal, with many other benefits as shown above.

There has been great news about three new vaccines in recent weeks, but none have yet been approved for use in the UK.  Assuming at least one is approved this side of Christmas, it will nonetheless be at least Easter before vaccines have a sufficient effect to alter restrictions.

Do we have to sit back and wait, whilst letting the new tier system and mass testing take their course?  No we don't.  There is a better alternative.

 

THE ALTERNATIVE

Back in August I also wrote about the hideous side-effects of lockdowns.  I have every sympathy with those who are complaining about them.  But as set out above, being more lax is not an option.  Yet nor should lockdowns drag on as the Government is currently planning with the three tiers.  

So can we get infection rates down to #NearZero level to let more of the economy re-open, improve the situation in schools, let the NHS treat other conditions, and drive down deaths and LongCOVID?  Before vaccines ride to the rescue?

I believe we can get infection rates down to #NearZero by leveraging the virus's natural lifecycle, as explained here:

• The virus would be eliminated in any area if everyone self-isolates for a month
  
• #NearZero is achievable with a three week FireBreak, provided as many people as possible self-isolate across the country.  Short and very sharp.
  

By using the new rapid mass testing for any outbreak and arrivals from abroad, infection rates across the country can be kept down for at least a couple of months.  A three week 'investment' for 9-10 weeks open.

Realistically we cannot start a FireBreak until the new year, but this should happen before schools and universities return:

Further details here, including the need for financial support during the Firebreak.

What do you think?