COVID-19: WHY 'FIREBREAK' OF 3 WEEKS IS BETTER THAN 'LOCKDOWN' OF 4

Yesterday I set out how just a three-week Enhanced FireBreak could get infections down to a very low level that would let the economy to re-open and life to generally improve.  Good for lives, livelihoods and the economy.

 

Ideally a bit sharper than the first lockdown, by being based on 'vital' activities rather than the merely 'essential'.

But what if a FireBreak like that doesn't get infections that low?  As a minimum we might expect the result to be similar to the first 'essential' lockdown which reduced the infection rate by five sixths from the peak, and let much of the economy re-open.  As testing of the infectious meant this peak was a few days after the lockdown started, the graph was as follows:

What we don't know is what sort of graph the Government envisages.  Whenever anyone says "get R below 1" the concern is that they are only aiming to stop infection rates growing.  Required to stop the NHS being overrun, but providing little benefit for the economy unless R is "well below 1".  

As Professor Christina Pagel showed at the Independent SAGE meeting last week, the tighter the restrictions, the lower infections get, and the more of the economy can re-open.  An R just under 1 of 0.95 produces hardly any reduction within 28 days:

So it is difficult to tell where the projected curve for the Government's 4-week lockdown would sit on the following graph.  Given the moderate level of restrictions proposed, presumably above the Welsh line but below the existing three-tier lines, and completely unclear December onwards:

 

HOW IS THE FIREBREAK IN WALES GETTING ON?

The FireBreak started in Wales on Friday 23 October and ends on Sunday 8 November, a total of 17 days, with new lighter restrictions from Monday 9 November.  The statistics are based on testing those displaying symptoms, which lag 5 days or so from infection, so:

• No reduction was expected for about a week, like the first lockdown graph above. What we're seeing a week later in the worst hit regions of Wales within South Wales is reversal of growing trends to produce a clear decline in infection rates
• Infection rates up to the weekend of 14 November will still reflect the Firebreak period

The latest new infection statistics to 5 November for the areas with higher rates in south Wales:

As a result:

• The FireBreak concept is showing the expected signs of success
• The Welsh government has announced that the FireBreak will finish as planned (and has now been repalced by a different set of more relaxed restrictions, with previously closed businesses re-opening)
  

 

IN CONCLUSION

So the Government is suggesting a 4-week lockdown for England that is lighter than a short, sharp FireBreak.  Once that period is complete, it will allow far less of the economy to re-open than a 17-day Welsh FireBreak or 21-day Enhanced FireBreak, whilst creating more harms by being longer.

It is so sad to see the Government continuing to pursue its 'too little, too late' strategy.  When will they learn that 'early and sharp' is better for lives, livelihoods and the economy?

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

I may not be a University professor, but my scientific and business experience mean I can take a far broader yet in-depth view.   I'm able to take a unique 360 degree view of the COVID-19 situation, having a background in science, business processes, finance and much else besides:

• For the last 40 years I have been solving problems and implementing solutions for Board level personnel in FTSE, AIM, private and start-up businesses.  Plus the UK subsidiaries of multinationals such as Sony and Alcatel, including doubling profits of their UK business

• That work is leveraging technical, financial, systems, commercial and people expertise and understanding. Often for biotech and other hi-tech businesses.

• This is based on being:
• Achiever of top Oxbridge degree in sciences, including cells, genetics, chemistry and spectroscopy
  
• The Thames Valley overall first prizewinner in final ICAEW examinations, covering all the various financial and management subjects
  
• Member of Institute of Management Consultants

The tough problems require taking an all-angles view of the situation, and all the available evidence, before proposing a solution.  I only ever propose a solution that I would be happy to implement.  I have been studying COVID-19 and the responses internationally for more than six months now.

In that sense, I regard how best to tackle COVID-19 as just another problem.  Not as tricky as some I have solved, which had stumped other CAs or the directors thought the problem was insoluble.

That's not to say how best to tackle COVID-19 is easy.  There is no painless  solution.  But balancing lives, livelihoods and the economy to allow education, the health system and business to flourish, whilst minimising the net cost to the Treasury, does have a far better solution than the UK government has proposed, as outlined above.