COVID-19: 21 JUNE OR NOT?

We’re looking forward to restrictions being eased fully in England on 21 June.  But would it be wise?

The Government has a difficult decision.  The Delta ‘Variant of Concern’ first identified in India is transmitting more easily than earlier variants, and threatening a third wave of infections.  The risk is that lockdown restrictions would need to be re-imposed later in the year, perhaps tighter than we have currently.  Whereas delaying some or all the June easings would minimise that risk.

The roadmap out of lockdown published in February had originally said “not before 21 June”.  As discussed previously, that is to allow enough time from the last easings on 17 May to see the data, given:

• Lag between infection and people getting tested of at least a week
  
• A similar lag between infection and admittance to hospital, and then deaths
• A final decision a week before 21 June, as a minimum one week notice

So far, the data is mixed.  Overall low cases, hospitalisations and deaths.  But discerning data about the Indian variant, with local surges in various parts of England. Still too early to be sure that low numbers will continue, or that some level of restrictions would continue to be necessary. 

The vaccines are working, but:

• Around 1 in 20 vaccinated people can catch the disease, at around 95% effective
  
• It takes around three weeks for vaccines to be effective to that level.  Now, in early June, most younger adults have not had their first vaccination yet.  The second booster for many more won’t be until well after 21 June.  

The problem is that younger adults can spread the disease to older and more vulnerable people, and also risk LongCOVID.  Not only their own lives being blighted, but also an increasing workload for the NHS to deal with them all.  Potentially tens of thousands.  Not something that can be ignored.

Better to wait until all adults have been vaccinated?  In an ideal world.

Yet many businesses are desperate to re-open fully, and people want to hold their wedding and other personal parties.  They all want to know for sure, now.

But we must wait another couple of weeks to see how the data develops.  That’s to ensure the Indian variant is sufficiently under control without risk of further avoidable lockdowns, and no other Variant of Concern emerges.  Fingers crossed!