COVID-19: HOW IMPORTANT ARE CASE RATES?

This afternoon, Monday, Sajid Javid made his first statement to the House of Commons as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care.  He stated that it is still the Government’s intention to remove all Covid restrictions in England on 19 July, as previously announced.  But not before.  He also stated that confirmed cases are still rising, mostly being the Delta variant.

In answer to questions:

• It is clear that hospitalisations are the main concern, but he remarked that case rates should not be ignored
  
• He agreed with other MPs that there is a major concern about the number of children missing school because of Covid cases amongst children. 
  

So how concerned should we be about case rates?  Confirmed cases are rising rapidly.  The BBC reports the latest 7-day average as 16,612 new cases, with the latest day being substantially higher at 22,868.

There are several reasons to be concerned about rising case rates:

1. As Andrew Marr of the BBC discovered, double vaccination is no guarantee of avoiding symptomatic disease.  Vaccines are excellent but not perfect.
2. Virtually no children are vaccinated, so will continue to succumb to disease. Whilst generally not serious for under 18s, a few will be severely affected.
3. Children can pass disease to adults, whether vaccinated or especially if unvaccinated.  Some adults will be hospitalised, of which some will die.
4. Growth of illness amongst children will mean them being increasingly off school, disrupting their education and that of others at their school. Whilst 19 July is around the end of term, once they are back in September, disease will no doubt spread quickly.
5. Children off school ill cause disruption to parents and their employers, causing an adverse impact on livelihoods
6. Cases of Long Covid will continue to rise, affecting children and adults
7. Apart from the adverse impact on those individuals, there will be an increasing load on them seeking help from NHS Primary Care, already under extreme strain
8. The higher the case rate, the more chance of a variant arising that is worse than Delta, such as an enhanced version. The risk is if it bypasses the vaccines and/or be more serious
9. High case rates in England will mean foreign counties will continue restrictions on visitors from England.  Some countries quite possibly increasing restrictions

So would it be wise to remove all restrictions on 19 July?  These issues need to be balanced against the impact of delaying that date.  Both economically and for our mental health.  For the Government, also politically.

On balance it looks like the Government will go ahead on 19 July.  But if so, then what steps can be made in mitigation to try to keep infection rates low around the country? 

For example, is the Government going to remove the need for self-isolation, or keep it?  Javid spoke about replacing self-isolation for schoolchildren with some testing-based approach.  Then what about vaccinating children, at least those in secondary education?

What do you think the Government ought to do come 19 July?