COVID-19: OVERCOMING VACCINE RELUCTANCE

PM Johnson announced this week that the relaxation of restrictions would be deferred from 21 June to 19 July.  The main justification was to substantially reduce deaths, and reduce pressure on the NHS through hospitalisation, by vaccinating more people for a further four weeks.

But will people be vaccinated quickly enough?  How significant is 'vaccine reluctance'?

We know from data published by Public Health England that:

• Many older and other more vulnerable people have had two jabs, typically AstraZeneca that provides around 92% protection against hospitalisation
• Younger people are being given Pfizer or Moderna.  Pfizer provides around 94% protection from only one dose.  
• It is too early for Moderna data, but protection would be hoped to be similar

Getting people to have their second AstraZeneca jab improves effectiveness against hospitalisation from a good 71% to an excellent 92%.

Getting people to get their first jab is arguably more important to reduce risks across more adults:

• Younger people.  All adults 18+ will be offered their first jab by the end of this week
• Older people who haven’t yet had their first jab need to be encouraged to do so

One of the slides displayed on Monday shows a steadily climbing rate of first jabs.  At that rate 100% could theoretically be achieved around 7 July, giving protection a couple of weeks later around that 19 July date:

But the Department of Health and Social Care are suggesting that by 19 July only around 89% of adults will have had their first vaccine.  As it is around 79% now, by 7 July it will only be around 84%.  That’s a 16% shortfall on what is potentially possible. 

As this does not appear to be because of vaccine supply problems, nor any other overall capacity constraint, there are two main issues:

• ‘Vaccine hesitancy’ where people refuse or are reluctant to get vaccinated.  This includes disliking a needle, and distrusting the vaccine
• Difficulty in getting a local jab

For the over 40s, it has typically taken some 2 months for each age group to reach vaccination rates over 80%, as published by Public Health England: 

Week number 2020/21

So how can more of the under 40s, in particular, be encouraged to get at least one jab by early July?  The more the better.

Restrictions awaiting relaxation, such as nightclubs and pubs without social distancing, typically involve younger people.  The sooner enough of them get vaccinated, the sooner such restrictions can be removed.  It is in their interest.

Let’s hope the Government gets that message and other vaccine encouragement out there.  Won’t it be great to get back to ‘normal’?