COVID-19: HOW ABOUT EASING ALL RESTRICTIONS ON 21 JUNE?

Hospitalisations rising

The Government is about to announce whether some or all restrictions will be eased on 21 June in England.  Great if at least some could be eased.  But what would likely happen if all went ahead as originally hoped?  

The fly in the ointment is the Delta variant first identified in India.  We now know:

• It is some 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Kent) variant, and has become the dominant variant
• The vaccines are less effective according to Public Heath England:
• The AstraZeneca is only 60% effective against symptomatic disease, after 2 weeks of second dose.  As that is the type given to most of the vulnerable and over 40s, that means that 1 in 3 of these people are susceptible to the disease
• The Pfizer vaccine being given to many of the under 40s is better, at 88% effective, but that still means 1 in 8 are susceptible even 2 weeks after the second dose.  For the under 30s adults, including university students, that's a couple of months away at least.
• Furthermore very few schoolchildren and adults under 30 have been vaccinated at all as yet
• As a result, cases are increasing exponentially in many parts of the country, especially in younger age groups.  Small numbers so far, but that can quickly turn into large numbers if left unchecked.
  

What’s not so clear is whether we need be concerned.  There's a time lag between cases and hospitalisations, and another lag before deaths.  It is rather too early to say for sure, but indications from North West England (above), Scotland (below) and elsewhere are that:

• The vaccines appear to be effective at reducing serious symptoms
• But without vaccination, the disease can be more serious
• Nevertheless, hospitalisations are still happening, but at a lower rate than in previous waves, and tend to be for younger people 

Per BBC, from Gov.uk dashboard

WHAT WOULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES OF EASING ALL RESTRICTIONS ON 21 JUNE?

If all restrictions were to be eased, it would be reasonable to expect:

• The disease would rip through schoolchildren and under 30s, who could be more ill than with previous variants
  
• The disease would be passed on to many of the vulnerable and older adults

Would this result in NHS hospitals being overrun?  Difficult to tell.  It’s certainly a risk.  But whilst that has been the Government’s main concern, that’s not the only consequence:

• A proportion of those catching the disease will then suffer from LongCOVID.  This could be tens of thousands more people, young and old.   Bad for them and a major threat to NHS Primary Care to look after them.  Layla Moran MP, Chair of the APPG on Coronavirus calls this “a ticking time bomb for our NHS”
• Schools increasingly closing year groups in the final month of the school year, with a further detrimental affect on education
• The higher the case rate, the higher the risk of potentially more serious variants.   Then we would really be in trouble

Can we take those risks, which are significant?  That’s for the Government to decide.  PM Johnson has indicated they will be cautious.  A 4-week delay has been indicated, which would defer a further decision until schools have broken up for the summer, more younger adults will have been vaccinated, and the data will be clearer.

Indeed are the risks such as to need a tighter lockdown now?  Let’s hope not.  Maybe there’s scope to ease some restrictions, such as the number of guests at wedding receptions.  Wouldn't it be great to be back to normal?

We will find out the Government’s decision shortly.