COVID-19: HOW LONG WILL THIS LAST?

In the beginning was the virus.  2020 hasn’t been the same since.  Every country and geographical territory has become a laboratory for how the virus spreads and how well it can be controlled.

At one end of the spectrum is Sweden, with no formal lockdown and little more restrictions than stopping gatherings of more than 50 people.

At the other end of the spectrum is New Zealand.  Their ‘lockdown early, lockdown hard’ strategy paid dividends in eradicating the virus and letting them get back to normal for more than three months.  Until now.



SO INFECTIOUS

What was apparent from the early experience of China and Italy was that COVID-19 is very infectious.  Then we learnt that someone can become infectious before they display symptoms. Carrying on their normal life, but spreading viruses to potentially everyone they meet. 

Across the world.

That meant it was clear to me back in March that it would be nigh on impossible to “eradicate” the SARS-COV-2 virus that’s behind COVID-19 from the world.

So even a territory that could “eliminate” COVID-19 would struggle to maintain that status.  There would always be the virus somewhere in the world, with the risk that someone (or something) would bring it into that territory and set off a new outbreak.  Perhaps a citizen returning from abroad, or a visitor, or a parcel perhaps.  No scope to relax.

Now it looks like viruses in the invisible microdroplets of water that leave an infectious person’s mouth every time we breathe, talk, shout or laugh are the main method of transmission. 

Hence the use of masks to stop the mist of the microdroplets. 

Not that you should stop washing your hands nor stop touching your face.  The virus does stay on surfaces for a while if someone has put it there. If you then touch that surface and touch your mouth, nose or eyes, you can contract the virus.


NEW ZEALAND’S EXPERIENCE

New Zealand has taken the battle against COVID-19 very seriously.  Locking down early, and putting in place a range of measures that eliminated it from the country.  That lasted over three months.

They had put strict immigration quarantine in place.  But the little bit of flexibility they allowed to a pair of Brits to attend a family funeral resulted in the first positive tests in the middle of June.  Luckily it spread no further.  Looks like the ladies flew in before they became contagious, and so nobody on the flight or associated with it caught the virus.

Otherwise New Zealand had been without any sign of the virus for more than 100 days, with nobody acquiring it within the country.  Until now.

New Zealand has now had a proper outbreak.  Starting with a family of four, including children, with positive tests on 11 August.  Though it looks as if one of them had been infected as much as 10 days earlier.  During this time they kicked off an outbreak that has infected at least 26 other people.

The government’s reaction has been to send in the contact tracers, and put people into quarantine in government-run hotels.  Effectively prisons, although it may be people escaping that kicked off this outbreak.  The city of Auckland has also been put into a three day lockdown, extended for another 2 weeks, affecting some 1.6 million people.  And strengthened the immigration controls

That’s ghastly.  Surely they can’t do that repetitively, every time there is a small outbreak?

HOW ABOUT SWEDEN?

A discussion of Sweden's COVID-19 strategy is included in the other blogpost “COVID-19: Alternative Strategies. Which One for England?” 





IN CONCLUSION

The key point about New Zealond’s recent experience is they have proved it is nigh on impossible to keep COVID-19 out of a territory or country.  It then spreads quickly.  Even with the most stringent of preventative measures.  Which incidentally I don’t believe are sustainable for future outbreaks. 

There’s little real prospect of a vaccine being available until 2021 at the earliest. There won’t be widespread availability for years. Natural ‘herd immunity’ would take years.  Completely eradicating COVID-19 from the world is but a pipe dream.

So COVID-19 will be around in the world for the foreseeable future. Always looking for the chance to get back into any territory that believes it has defeated it.

So the UK government was right when it said “Stay Alert”  That will need to be our attitude for the foreseeable future. 

Because the foreseeable future is how long COVID-19 will be with us in any territory, even if we manage to temporarily eliminate it.



Which means we have to find ways to live with it.  And yet get on with life.  That's a separate discussion.