Is it a 'spike' that's back to earlier levels and under control, or a 'surge' that's out of control?
The local Director of Public Health is quoted as saying "It now seems we are back up to those late July levels again and they are continuing to rise beyond this." So a 'surge' then.
Here's the graph from Public Health England (using results from NHS Test and Trace), which goes up to 21 August. There's a dark blue line that denotes the trend in the 7-day average, rising in late July, dropping in early August, and then rising strongly again. Peaked perhaps? Too early to say for sure:
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| PHE graph by specimen date |
I'm not surprised. Most young adults I see out and about in Oxford are taking no obvious COVID-19 precautions. Little social distancing. Few masks. Pubs open. Not packed like before, but people laughing and talking loudly close to one another. Fun, but risky for COVID-19 infection.
Indeed he "has warned young adults are putting their loved ones lives at risk if they flout the rules."
"The message to younger people is that you may not experience the worst of the symptoms yourself, but you may pass it on to loved ones [and others] in older age groups or those with underlying health conditions who do."
This is true. Hospitalisation and death of younger adults from COVID-19 is much lower than for older people, but not zero. Furthermore LongCOVID does affect young adults, and I'm surprised so little mention is made of it by government or the media.
Here's an article describing extreme lethargy symptoms for younger adults, plus additional symptoms. There's also a "Long Covid Support Group" that has been set up working in partnership with the UK Sepsis Trust.
IMPACT ON OXFORD CITY
The graph above goes up to 21 August.
The article says "There were 28 cases in Oxford during this period [the week to 14 August], compared with 16 the week before." With a population around 150,000, the local director of public health says "although the rate of 18.4 cases per 100,000 people in the City [in the week to] August 14 was still below the thresholds which have seen measures reintroduced elsewhere in the country, it is higher than many other areas in the South East."
A subsequent article says "As of August 14, the seven-day rate in the city was 18.4 per 100,000 people but this has now gone up 26.2 [for week to August 21]. This is due to 40 new cases [in the week], compared with 28 the week before." That takes Oxford up to 17th in the country.
40 cases in a week is 5.7 a day on average. As discussed here, in looking at national data to 21 August, the tests are voluntary and only for the symptomatic, so this figure needs to be multiplied by about 5 to get a realistic daily level of infections. That's 28.6 a day. To estimate how many people are out and about infectious, for an average of say 5 days, that's around 140 people.
140 people out and about not knowing they are infectious, and often acting as if they weren't. I don't know about you, but given the six risks of COVID-19, I don't want to be out and about with them, at least not indoors. Outdoors is safer, though not risk-free.
As discussed here, Oxford with some 150,000 people should only have about 15 people out and about infectious, with 3 actual infections per day (2 per hundred thousand). That is equivalent to PHE's number being only 2 every 5 days. So Oxford's COVID-19 infections are currently nearly 10 times higher than they ideally should be, and rising.
Action to get this right down is needed if we want to keep schools open and get back to any kind of normality.
WHAT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN?
Highlighted is East Oxford (including most of central Oxford), for which the MP is the Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds. For COVID-19, she is campaigning for support for jobs. This is especially the 7000 in the hospitality and retail sectors in her side of Oxford. The constituency also includes the BMW Mini factory where over 400 jobs are now at risk.
The MP for Oxford West and Abingdon is a Lib Dem, Layla Moran, a former maths and physics teacher who now chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Coronavirus.
The Group is calling for a 'Zero-COVID' strategy to take daily infections down below that 2 per hundred thousand limit. Being a pragmatist, I would call that #NearZero. That's aiming for zero, but with the important proviso that there will be outbreaks that need to be identified and countered.
It must be the right thing to do. #NearZero will minimise the chances of infections in schools and higher education, and thereby help to keep them open. If people are confident to go out, the economy can recover. Plus the lower the infection rates are before the winter, the lower any second wave. That means far fewer deaths and sufferers of LongCOVID. There really is no sensible alternative.
A PLEA TO YOUNGER (AND OLDER) ADULTS
The local director of public health added: "The plea is a simple one – be consistent in remembering those simple measures that help keep us safe – keep your distance, wash your hands, wear a mask". This plea is not just for the young, but everyone.
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"If we all do these things, we will avoid having to introduce measures that we’ve seen elsewhere in England."
Update 3/9/20: Data for week ended 28 August now out, with reduction in new cases
IN CONCLUSION
So please. Everyone in the media. Tell the youngsters about their responsibilities to their fellow citizens as the article above suggests. But also mention that LongCOVID can badly affect them. Or we'll never get those nightclubs and other entertainments open. It's very much in their interests to take care about COVID-19 !
As a nation, we need to get infection rates down to #NearZero across the British Isles if we want to keep schools open and let the economy properly recover.
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