COVID-19: THE SIDE-EFFECTS OF LOCKDOWNS

Lockdowns have been a feature of almost every country's reaction to COVID-19.  Even Sweden had a voluntary lockdown for people's daily lives, with internal travel dropping as much as in neighbouring countries.

I am not a fan of lockdowns.  If I suggest one it is that there is no alternative to either halt a surge in new infections, or the only way of getting new infections down to a sensible level. 

The reason for my reluctance is the awful 'side-effects' that can arise.

Just like any medicine, the lockdown treatment comes at a 'cost' that has to be balanced against the cost of not having a lockdown, given the risks of COVID-19.  By 'cost', I mean all adverse impacts, both financial and otherwise.

The beneficial impact of a lockdown has to outweigh the side-effects.

The lockdown needs to be kept as 'light' as possible, with restrictions limited.  Such as allowing beer gardens to stay open whilst indoor venues are closed, given outdoors is far safer than indoors.


THE SIDE-EFFECTS OF LOCKDOWNS

The 'side-effects' of lockdowns are of various types, that include:

• Restrictions on people’s lives, that we've all experienced

• Adverse impact on mental health.  We were lucky in the UK to have daily exercise allowed.  Some other countries like Spain were much tougher.

• Adverse impact on the diagnosis and treatment of other serious illnesses such as cancer, with patients not confident enough to go to hospital, and/or hospitals unable to spare the staff and facilities.

• Increase in domestic violence

• Adverse impact on children's schooling, such that getting schools back in September has become a top priority.  The challenge being to keep them open.

• Adverse impact on public examinations and university entrance, as we've witnessed in the last few days

• Adverse impact on the economy, affecting jobs, with the UK's economy now officially in recession, having shrunk by a massive 20.4% compared with the first three months of the year.

• Adverse impact on jobs, with the number of people claiming out-of-work benefits over the past three months having more than doubled to 2.7 million in July.  This is despite the various government support schemes that have cost a small fortune, but are shorltly to be wound down. unless there's a change of heart

• Adverse impact on the national debt, with need for increased borrowing or other fiscal measures

With the 'side effects' so painful, a lockdown has to be worth it.  Let's look at that here.