COVID-19: POISON

The key problem with COVID-19 is that people who are infectious often don't know it.  They can be living life as normal, and be either:

• Pre-symptomatic:  It typically takes five days (2-14) to display symptoms.  During that time it is thought the person can be more contagious than after they start to display symptoms.
• Asymptomatic:  They are carrying the disease but for some reason they do not develop the standard initial symptoms.  It is unclear to what extent they can be infectious, but quite possible during the time they are fighting off the virus.  Maybe longer.

On that basis the estimate is that the number of people out and about infectious, but not aware they are, is around four to five times the daily infection rate in an area.  In turn that can be as much as five times the official 'confirmed new cases' rate, for a combination of reasons set out here.

So that's 20-25 times the official daily figure in an area.  10 new infections a day is 200-250 people out and about, unaware they are infectious.


COVID-19 AS POISON

COVID-19 is like a poison.  It can make someone very ill initially, confining them to bed for some days, and then potentially making them seriously ill.  Death is a possibility, with a higher chance of ongoing symptoms, referred to as LongCOVID.

Whilst there are ways to alleviate symptoms, there is no known cure.  Not yet.


POISONERS

On that basis, anyone infectious would be a poisoner.  Unwittingly if they are not displaying symptoms.  Friends, family, strangers.

The problem is we don't know which person is a poisoner and which isn't.  Could it be me?  Meeting people is like playing Russian Roulette, but with different odds of the various risks.

The only way we can protect ourselves is to treat everyone as if they were a poisoner. Especially indoors in crowded places, be that a pub, a workplace, a train, or wherever.

This isn't much different from regarding everybody as a potential pick-pocket or mobile phone thief.  We take basic precautions.  Except it's not just strangers, it's people we know and trust too.

If we going to beat COVID-19 and get back to some normality, we've got to get daily infection rates down.  Taking better precautions because other people could poison us is going to be vital,  As is protecting others from ourselves.  "I look after you, you look after me."

"On pain of death"

That's applying the simple rules we know:

• Social distancing.  2m better then 1m, further if possible.
• Wearing masks to stop viruses escaping an infectious person on water droplets
• Washing hands and not touching mouth, nose, or eyes
• Sorry guys.  Less of that hugging and kissing!

'Poison' may sound too strong.  But no.  If we adopt the attitude that COVID-19 is like a poison, but still get on with life, we can beat it.  But if we carry on as if there are no risks, or 'it won't happen to me', the disease is going to blight our lives as a society for years to come.

Poison.