COVID-19: EXCESS DEATHS (to week 36, early September)

Three weeks ago we looked at "Excess Deaths" for England and Wales.  COVID-19 had resulted in some 53,000 more deaths in the first 33 weeks than would be expected in an average year.  After the first 36 weeks it is still around 53,000.

A large number, with every person a tragedy.  Just like my next-door neighbour, who died of COVID-19 having worked in a care home.

But at least for the moment the excess is not increasing.  The recent increase in infections has yet to translate into hospitalizations and deaths.

This is partly because the increase in infections is as yet principally amongst younger adults, who have shown that they can fight off the virus more effectively than those aged over 50.  But that doesn't mean younger adults are not affected.  LongCOVID affects all ages, and each day we hear more stories of young, fit people struggling to function, or in pain.  And some younger adults do die.

The graphs of excess deaths for week 36 look very similar to those for week 33.  So let's look instead at how each age group has been affected in % terms, being cumulative excess deaths as a % of cumulative average deaths for that age group (i.e. the total for the year so far):

What is clear is that:

• Older age groups were mainly affected, with deaths for every age group over 45 peaking at 20% or more above average levels
• Under 14s have actually died less than on average, certainly if we ignore the picture before the arrival of COVID-19.  

What's difficult to assess is the 15-44 age bracket, which at 30 years is broader than any of the others.  More refined age information is available for 2020, but sadly isn't publicly available for the previous years to be able to do the requisite comparisons.

Nonetheless the 15-44 age bracket peaked at 5% deaths above average, with an excess death figure of 255.  That was 370 above the low point before the pandemic.  That's some 300 or more young lives cut short as a result of COVID-19 in England and Wales.