COVID-19: SO WHERE HAS THE GOVERNMENT GONE WRONG?

Not so busy today, distanced

Note: Written after PM Johnson's speech to Parliament 22/9/20

Have you heard of 'R'?  It's rather like a mystical beast.  It is back-calculated using an estimate of transmission frequency.    Of itself it has no sense of timescale, so the only use of it is whether it is greater than or less than 1. 

And there lies the problem.  The mantra has been that "as long as we keep R below 1".  That means not growth in the infection rate.  That is equivalent to keeping the daily growth rate below zero, a much more useful metric.

In practice that has meant the Government being satisfied with the current level of infection, whatever it was, rather than striving to reduce it.  Reopening the economy provided the growth rate didn't become positive.  A big risk, as we are now finding.

It was clear from PM Johnson's speech that here we go again.  Today he said words to the effect "we need to strike a balance between pushing down the R versus letting the economy flourish"

There are problems with both sides of that balance:

• Pushing down 'R' to 1 (or growth rate to zero) only stops infections rising.  It does nothing to get them down further.  The measures announced today sound like they will do no more than stop growth in infections.  Too little, and weeks too late
• The economy cannot flourish with infection rates at current levels, and not even as they have been over the summer. Certainly not higher levels which is happening every day now.

PM Johnson spoke of these measures being in place for six months, right across the winter, presumably in the hope of a safe and effective vaccine after Christmas. 'Hoping for the best' again, rather than erring on the side of caution. A vaccine is not guaranteed in that timescale, nor indeed at all. 
 
Alternatively we saw in this analysis that by getting new infections down to very low levels, #NearZero, we can re-open most if not all of the economy.  Even the night-time economy of theatres and music venues can reopen in accordance with the  NTIA's "Nightclub & Venue Reopening Strategy", which seems broadly sensible.

#NearZero is potentially achievable in as little as 3-4 weeks, or at least would have been over the summer.  A relatively short, sharp medicine for major improvement.  Rather than half-hearted medicine for the foreseeable future that will not properly address the economic 'symptoms', whilst still being unpleasant in itself. 

We certainly cannot expect the economy to flourish if people cannot plan their business ahead, nor if customers are reluctant to go out into indoor settings.  I'm nowhere near as reluctant as some people I know, but getting my first haircut since before lockdown, and a trim of my new Lockdown Beard, was a risky step for me.


IN CONCLUSION

Today's propopals were too little too late again:

• If we really want to re-open the economy and let it flourish, and 
• If we want to preserve our lives, livelihoods and lifestyles.  

The Government missed the opportunity over the summer to more easily get infection rates down to very low levels, #NearZero.

More difficult to do it now, but that would still be better than drifting on with today's proposals.