27 September 2020

COVID-19: WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH...


Professor Shock
The summary "Now Here's An Idea" worth reading first.

Something's been bothering me so far this weekend.  If it could have taken just 3-4 weeks to get to #NearZero in the summer, how long would it take now the infection rate is so much higher?

We know #NearZero is not only better for lives, livelihoods and life, but also better for the economy:
  • Lives
    • Fewer deaths
    • Fewer cases of LongCOVID
  •  Livelihoods
    • More work for the employed
    • More work for the self-employed
  • Life
    • Get on with what we like to do
    • Better for education
    • Less strain on the NHS, our health service, and the people who work in it
    • Less strain on NHS Test system
  • Economy
    • Better for business
    • Better for the nation's finances
But how do we get there?   


Professionally, I advise the senior executives of FTSE, AIM and private businesses, typically the CFO (Chief Financial Officer) and the CEO (Chief Executive Officer).  That has on occasions meant coming up with solutions to problems that other people have not solved.  A little madness helps.  Thinking the unthinkable.  Asking the questions others haven't thought to ask.  The impact can be significant.

So what of this problem?  How do we unlock the significant benefits of #NearZero?

Now, there's a useful fact.  People develop COVID-19 symptoms within two weeks of infection.  Hence the two weeks for self-isolation and quarantine.

We've heard the term "circuit break".  But what does it mean?  What if it meant cutting off literally all routes of infection for two weeks? 

A mass self-isolation. 

It might sound mad, but that is the only answer.



THE PRACTICALITIES OF A MASS SELF-ISOLATION

A mass self-isolation may be fine in theory, but how about in practice?

Firstly, everybody would have to be ready to self-isolate for a fortnight:
  • Enough food in stock
  • Enough medicines
  • Enough of anything else
Let's say it would take two weeks preparation for those who are not ready to get ready.  Most people have freezers and cupboards with enough already in place.  There should be enough tins and other provisions in the shops and their supply chains for everyone else.  

All shops, business, schools and higher education would then close down for two weeks. 

There's been talk of a "circuit break" for the October half-term.  The timescales could tie in with that ideally.  Provided a decision to do this is made promptly.  Minimising the impact on education.

There's then public attitude.  The "Mass Self-Isolation" has to be sold. And the public need to respond not only with support for the mass self-isolation but also keeping the infection level very low thereafter.  

Indeed there are these pre-conditions identified in an earlier blogpost:
  1. Strategy and policy: The Government must commit to keeping the infection rate very low, #NearZero
  2. Financial support: This must be provided to individuals, businesses and other organisations during lockdown.  It only needs to be for a very short time.
  3. Public Attitude: The public's voluntary commitment to keeping infections very low must be gained, through much improved communications with the public.  That must include explaining the 'whys' as much as the 'whats'.  Like any sales exercise, all the contrary "objection" viewpoints need to be tackled and overcome.  Fines very much as a last resort.
  4. Immigration Arrangements: A more effective quarantine and release procedure needs to be in place to suitably control not just people, but also things coming into the country. Last I heard chilled food packaging was still suspected as being a source of New Zealand's outbreaks.
  5. Local Outbreaks:  Ability to spot individual outbreaks early and bring them under control
In the meantime the public should be encouraged to self-isolate as best they can.


IN CONCLUSION

The infection rate in the UK has risen too high to get to #NearZero with a light lockdown, or even a lockdown as draconian as the first.

The only answer is a full and proper "circuit break".  It will need a "Mass Self-Isolation".  With only minimal exceptions, such as for those people needing daily care.

Achievable by the end of October if the proper steps are put in place this coming week. 

Save Christmas.  Save our lives.  Save our livelihoods.  Save the economy.

I put this statement to the House for debate.


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