COVID-19: FINDING THE LEAST WORST OPTION

Now PM Johnson has nailed his colours to the mast, with a strategy announced for six months.

Yesterday he said words to the effect "we need to strike a balance between pushing down the R versus letting the economy flourish".  As discussed yesterday, there's problems with both sides of that statement.  But there's no doubt that lives and livelihoods need to be balanced.

So what options did the Government have?


THE EXTREMES

Firstly the two extremes:

OPTION	PROS	CONS
No restrictions	Get on with life	High deaths and LongCovid.  Health service inevitably overrun.
"Elimination" (ZeroCOVID)  as tried by New Zealand	Back to normal.  Hugs again	Measures needed are unrealistic long term

PRACTICAL OPTIONS

Then near the two extremes:

OPTION	PROS	CONS
Some restrictions as done by Sweden	Get on with most of life,  but     no gatherings over 50	High death and LongCovid initially
#NearZero	Back to near normal after 3-4 weeks	Relatively tough measures

THE UK GOVERNMENT'S CHOICE

Then what the UK Government has chosen for England:

OPTION	PROS	CONS
UK Government	Schools and some businesses staying open	Drifting on for 6 months at least

IN SUMMARY

Putting these options into one spectrum:

OPTION	PROS	CONS
No restrictions	Get on with life	High deaths and LongCovid.  Health service inevitably overrun.
Some restrictions as done by Sweden	Get on with most of life, but     no gatherings over 50	High death and LongCovid initially
UK Government (for England)	Schools and some businesses stayed open	Drifting on  for 6 months at least
#NearZero	Back to near normal after 3-4 weeks	Relatively tough measures
"Elimination" (ZeroCOVID)  as tried by New Zealand	Back to normal.  Hugs again	Measures needed unrealistic long term

ASSESSMENT

There's no right answer.  It's a matter of finding the least worst option.  So which is it?

"No restrictions" is a non-starter, as the health service would soon be overrun.  New Zealand is more remote from the rest of the world than the UK, and they can't even make "Elimination" work.  Not practical for the UK.

As discussed here, there are various reasons why the strategy adopted by Sweden wouldn't work in the UK.  Not least because it is highly likely the NHS would be overrun, even with the Nightingale hospitals.

Which leaves us with the choice between:

• #NearZero
• The Government's strategy

PM Johnson has announced that these restrictions are likely to be in place for six months.   Yet we could get to #NearZero in just one month, 3-4 weeks.

So here's why the UK Government has made the wrong choice.  Too little too late.