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What would you be prepared to do to get back to normal?
Here's an idea. Not ideal, but nothing is. Better than continuing as we are.
Indeed we can't carry on as we are. Over a quarter of the UK population are now under stricter measures than the others, with significant (but different) restrictions in each of the four UK nations.
Nobody can plan ahead. Not businesses nor families. Christmas is now three months away, and nobody knows what restrictions might need to be in place.
We're going to have to live with the virus at least until there's a mass vaccine or medicine, perhaps in early 2021. But we still have to live with 'flu despite a vaccine, so realistically we have to plan to live with COVID-19 for the foreseeable future. There must be a better way of doing so.
Indeed there is. We have seen that the #NearZero strategy is far superior to the current UK Government approach by being:
- Better for lives
- Better for livelihoods
- Better for life in general
- And better for the economy
- The full "elimination" strategy implemented by New Zealand
- The Swedish approach of a light official lockdown, with a public-led lockdown (which is not herd immunity)
- Full 'herd immunity' as that would take years, and with countless deaths
HOW TO STAY AT #NearZero
Whilst any reduction in the infection rate is welcome, there is no great point getting to #NearZero unless the country can stay there without repeated lockdowns. Keeping infection rates very low isn't easy. It needs:
- Strategy and policy: Commitment from the Government for #NearZero
- Public Attitude: The public's voluntary commitment to keeping infections very low.
- Immigration Arrangements: Effective quarantine and testing procedure for people and goods, but expecting some 'leakage' of virus into the country
- Tackling Outbreaks: Ability to spot individual outbreaks early and deal with them rapidly
- Financial support: As necessary for individuals, businesses and other organisations during any lockdown
HOW TO GET TO #NearZero
In the summer, official "new confirmed cases" were under 1000 a day. It would have been possible to get to #NearZero at around 200 cases a day in 3-4 weeks with a second lockdown similar to the first. But the infection rate has risen substantially, to at least 5,800 a day and rising. A very low level of infections consistent with #NearZero is no longer attainable with a standard lockdown like started in March/April. There needs to be some different action. But what?
People develop symptoms in 2-14 days, but typically 5. So in two weeks anyone infectious who will develop symptoms will have done so, and should self-isolate. Asymptomatic people can also be assumed to be no longer infectious after two weeks. Any outbreak after the two weeks would need to be dealt with as if it was an imported case.
After that time COVID-19 will be best part eliminated. This can be timed to coincide with the school half-term at the end of October, as long as it is announced this coming week to give people time to prepare.
I now hear an epidemiologist suggested a Mass Self-Isolation back in February as the first wave took off. It is not an alien concept.
No doubt there will be lots of reasons raised as to why we can't adopt this strategy. But gut feel is every single one of them can be overcome. Where there's a will there's a way.
Indeed effectively we have a choice:
- Carry on as we are for six months or more, not being able to plan and see death figures steadily rise, or
- Do a short, sharp 2-week Mass Self-Isolation, and then carry on with life almost like normal
THE DETAIL
Here you can see the idea and the benefits discussed in more detail.
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